Golf's second major of the year starts this Thursday, and it's a great chance for you to rake in some well-earned money from some well-researched bets. After the highly successful majors where Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama won a lot of people money, we're back with our picks for the week's events at Chambers Bay.
Despite Chambers Bay being a completely new course on the professional circuit, we can still look at certain key indicators at what will be important coming into the competition.
The Seattle course is a links style layout, meaning that players who traditionally do well in British Opens and links style US Open courses like Pebble Beach will be worth a look. Traditional US Open courses are always very tough, with a narrow fairways and punishing rough. Stats like Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy and Scrambling will be useful tools when trying to get value for money.
With that in mind, here are the three players who represent the best chance of earning you money at the year's second major in order of value, and none of them are named Rory McIlroy:
1. Dustin Johnson 18/1
Dustin Johnson is about to enter his prime as a golfer. He has the power to be a serious golfer, and has track record around links course after being the 54 hole leader at the US Open in Pebble beach the year Graeme McDowell won. Johnson has six top tens this season, with two top fifteen results in his last two starts.
His driving accuracy is a concern, as is his withdrawal from this week's St. Jude Classic due to illness, but tee-to-green Johnson is very good, is decent at Greens in Regulation, and has the talent and imagination to shape shots which will be key at a windy links course.
He'll need to believe that he can win, but he's due a major victory.
2. Rickie Fowler 18/1
A week after being named as the most over-rated player on tour, Fowler bit back and won the Player's Championship. He has only played twice in five weeks since then missing the cut at the Memorial and finishing tied 30th at the Irish Open with a score of +7.
That said, his record at the majors is incredible - with four top five finishes last season. He's arguably improved since then, and that's evidenced in his victory at Sawgrass. He's a major champion in the making, and links courses are likely to be where he makes his breakthrough.
3. Hideki Matsuyama 35/1
The 23-year-old Japanese star has been awesome this year with six top 5 finishes. He won a lot of people a lot of money at the Masters with his fifth place finish, and his improvement this season suggests that he can do it again.
His Greens in Regulations and Scrambling stats are among the best on tour that at 15/2 for a top 5 finish it's almost a steal.
Others:
Jordan Spieth's in great form, even after his Masters victory. His caddy has local knowledge of the course, but it's very tough for first time major winners to back it up with a victory at the next major. He's too good to ignore completely, but at the value given I'm reluctant.
The US Open is all Phil Mickelson needs to complete the career grand slam. He's one of the few players who have made scouting missions to the course, and links golf suits his scrambling and shot shaping ability. A top five finish in the Wells Fargo tournament and a good outing in the St. Jude's Classic show he's in form, but at 18/1 he's a stupidly low price.
Justin Rose as the form, and the pedigree as a former US Open champion to make a wave at Chambers Bay. Like Mickelson, is just priced a little low. Always worth a punt for first round leader.
Billy Horschel is the under the radar player whose name happens to appear on all the relevant stats - like Greens in Regulation, Scrambling and Driving Accuracy, and his form is improving. He's had four top 20s in the last four weeks, including a top ten. An outside shot at 66/1, or a top 5 shot at 14/1.
One player I'm not expecting much from is Rory McIlroy. His game is near unstoppable on flat parklands courses, but that's not what we should expect this week. The weather will be bright and sunny, and it's a hilly course. It's not going to suit Rory, and at 7/1 he's just not worth it.
