Last night’s 1-1 draw with Sweden was, on paper at least, Ireland’s best chance to set us up to qualify for the Euro 2016 knockout stages. A win yesterday would have all but guaranteed Ireland’s passage into the next round and, for twenty minutes at least, that’s exactly what looked like happening.
Seeing Darren Randolph’s net ripple from a misplaced Ciaran Clark header was a familiar sight for Irish football fans, with the all too familiar sense of deflation replacing the cautious optimism that we had been basking in.
So with that less than ideal result behind us, what needs to happen for Ireland to get out of Group E and qualify for the knockout rounds.
Wins against Belgium next Saturday and Italy would certainly help our cause but, failing that best case scenario outcome, what do we want to happen?
On Friday, Italy will play Sweden in Toulouse and it’s in our best interests for the Azzurri to come out on top in that one. In fact, if Italy can trounce them and maybe pick up some yellow cards along the way that would be a really good result for Ireland.
This leaves Italy on 6 points, Ireland and Sweden with 1 and Belgium with none.
Then, the following day, Ireland take on a Belgian side still nursing their wounds from their abject showing against the Italians yesterday and, realistically speaking, a draw would be a very solid result for Martin O’Neill’s men.
This would leave Ireland on two points, second behind Italy, and a point ahead of both Sweden and Belgium.
Both matchday three games will kick off at 8pm on Wednesday week when, in this scenario at least, Ireland would take on an Italian team who have already qualified and are resting key players. Can we get a draw here, in this very particular set of circumstances? Stranger things have happened – and let’s not forget, Ireland have been known to up their game when facing the Italians.
This leaves Italy on 7 points, Ireland on 3. The winner between the Belgians and Swedes would finish second in the group, while a draw would mean that Ireland would qualify as runners-up.
In this remodelled European Championships, three points (and maybe even two) would likely be enough to guarantee qualification to the next round.
It’s a tough ask, though it can be done.
Much like it was at the start of the tournament, our most likely route is via one of the four third place spots. Whether that's with three points or possibly even four (a defeat against Belgium and a battling win against a relaxed Italian side is entirely possible) it leaves us facing either the winner of Group D (likely Spain or Croatia) or the winner of Group A (likely France).
After that, it's pretty much a clear run through to the final and ultimately winning Euro 2016.
