Your Way-Too-Early Balls.ie Rugby Nerds 2013 Lions Tour Starting XVs

It's nearly 7 months to the day that the 2013 Lions will take on the Barbarians in Hong Kong before rolling into Australia for a month of epic rugby. Given injuries and the randomness of form, it's far too early to start putting Lions starting XV's to paper for that first Test in Brisbane, so we figured no time like the present to solicit the Rugby Nerds for their starting Lions XV's. It's already a pretty fascinating debate: who's gonna start at 2? Is Kilroy and his one cap really gonna keep the mojo flowing to June? Who the hell is going to start at 15? The Nerds weight it all up below.

It's too early, I said.

Briefly. And quietly.

But when the Balls.ie editorial staff come asking for your 2013 Lions picks after the Autumn Internationals you don't really refuse.

Not if you don't want the second time of asking to be accompanied by large men with trenchcoats hammering nails into a baseball bat. It's that kind of operation.

So, here they are.

And as the 2013 Lions coach I have given myself the authority to pick anyone I damn well please. So Mike Phillips, off on his French sojourn, is in. And even though Rory Best, Stephen Ferris and Brian O'Driscoll are in sick bay they too are in.

Who's on the fringe? I've included Ben Foden as I view him to be one of the most gifted open field runners in the game. Rob Kearney is the obvious big name here to miss out.

If Brian O'Driscoll doesn't manage a successful comeback then Jonathan Davies is for me the next option, ahead of Manu Tuilagi. With O'Driscoll being 34 at the time of the tour a big series from either of his competitors could see them get the nod.

Number 8 is an odd one. Jamie Heaslip is the choice almost by default but on my Lions panel I'd view his main competition as being his Leinster and Ireland team mate, Sean O'Brien. The Tullow man can play the position and unleashing his runs off the base of the scrum would provide an enticing option.

In the front row, nobody is a certainty.

At lock the debate is purely about who joins Richie Gray. Despite my inclusion of an injured Ireland trio, Paul O'Connell's situation is such that one cannot in good faith assume that he'd be up to the rigours of a Lions tour. I've included Ryan after two superb performances against South Africa and Argentina, but there are a host of second row options from England and Wales who will mean that competition for even a touring place, let alone the starting lineup will be fierce.

It's going to be fascinating.

Paddy Logan's possible (green-tinted glasses) Lions XV:
Saturday: Kearney, Bowe, BOD, Davies, Gilroy, Farrell Sexton, Care, Healy, Best*, A Jones, Gray, Ryan, Ferris, Warburton, Heaslip.
Mid-Week: Halfpenny, Ashton, Tuilagi, Roberts, North, Sexton, Murray, Sheridan, Hartley*, Cole, Charteris, POC, Lydiate, Armitage SOB
Tackle Bags: Hogg, Cuthbert,, Earls, Darce, Visser, Flood, Phillips, Corbisiero, Strauss*, Ross, Lawes, Hines, Denton, Tipuric, Faletau
*Dead heat.

Generally, I agree with the curmudgeons who moan that it is far too early to be making Lions predictions. But it is great fun and everyone’s at it so why not?

Disappointingly, the home nations have had a poor autumn so far although Wales could yet end on a high by beating the talented Aussies in the play-off to decide who are Ireland’s nearest rivals for most inconsistent team in the world. Meanwhile, the only things in doubt at Twickenham are the margin of the All-Black victory and the enormity of Chris Robshaw’s naivety.

Whilst some players have played as if they fancy an extra month off next summer (you know who you are boyos), Ireland have at last produced a performance to stir the soul and this has made an objective assessment of the four nations players more difficult than it already was.

I know that in all likelihood there will be only half as many Irish players lining up at Brisbane on 22nd June. However, I would argue that my team reflects current international and club form. For me, Kearney, Bowe, Sexton, Healy and a fit Fez are nailed on for the Saturday team.

Competition is particularly savage in the backrow where I have gone for Warburton even though this time last week I had doubts as to whether he would even make the plane. I nearly went for O’Brien over Heaslip but settled for the Tullow Tank coming off the bench as an impact sub.

I can’t split Best and Strauss and Hartley so have listed them in alphabetic order. Hopefully, Rory and the finger-biter will face off in the Heiny double-header next month, which will serve as a kind of audition and a chance for the two of them to challenge Strauss, who secured pole position with a magnificent performance against the Argies.

Second row is also an area of intense competition although I don’t think that the quality is quite so high. Gray is my token jock and just makes it in whilst Donnacha Ryan’s gets the nod ahead of the legendary O’Connell. Our greatest ever forward is still good enough to tour but I prefer his Munster colleague’s dynamism.

Conor Murray nearly played himself into the starting XV on Saturday with by far his best performance on the international stage. But I still think Care edges it for consistency and his general nuisance factor.

Jonathan Davies is a world class centre and starts in the position he frequents for the Scarlets. A partnership with BOD in the form he displayed in the final stages of the Heineken Cup last year could be scintillating. I’ve also given the Leinster legend the opportunity to finish what Umaga and Mealamu interrupted.

Trois étrangers – Nathan Hines, Steffan Armitage and Andrew Sheridan – make the squad but none of them are in my starting XV.

And that leaves possibly my most contentious selection, and the first name on my team sheet: Craig Gilroy for the sheer enjoyment of watching him do his thing.

Gavin Grace's Lions Starting XV (...for now): Kearney, Bowe, O'Driscoll, Roberts, North, Sexton, Care; Jenkins, Best, Jones, Gray, Lawes, Ferris, Warburton (c), Easter.

Picking a Lions XV seven months out from the tour is an odd exercise. It's interesting, it'll generate comment, but you can take only two guarantees from our combined pieces. Someone who we all select in our sides won't make the cut for Warren Gatland in the summer, through poor form or injury. And someone who isn't mentioned on this page will make a big impact on the tour. The fun is finding out who those people will be, but for now, here's how I think the starting XV should look.

Full-back is Rob Kearney's position to lose at this stage. He needs to return to fitness, and show that he still has it, but I have no doubt that will be the case. On the wings I'm selecting Tommy Bowe, for his experience, and George North, for his size. Big wingers are difficult to contain. If Craig Gilroy were to maintain his recent form then he may squeak in here, but that's still far too big a shout to make at this stage. I'd also keep a close eye on Chris Ashton, who's shown that he can finish very well, and perhaps even Leigh Halfpenny.

Brian O'Driscoll shouldn't be good enough to take the 13 jersey at this stage, but he is. Fitness is a concern, but it's hard to imagine a Lions team starting without the great man - it's even harder to imagine that won't happen again after next year, though Manu Tuilagi and in particular Jonathon Davies will be pushing him close. Jamie Roberts gets my nod at 12 - he did OK with BOD last time around, and is the best in his position still.

Jonathon Sexton's performance against Argentina shows his potential, and keeps him in pole position for the out-half spot. Having seen what Danny Care can do against Connacht in Galway not too long ago, I can't plump for anyone else at Number 9.

Rory Best remains the best hooker in the Northern hemisphere, and a strong leader too. Either side of him I plump for Gethin Jenkins over Joe Marler, and Adam Jones over Dan Cole, but that call is very tight. Scotland will be represented in the front five - Richie Gray is too much fun to watch to leave out of any team, and would form a mobile second row with Courtney Lawes. We may see an Irishman challenge here, with Paul O'Connell a strong contender if he can get fit. If not, then either Mike McCarthy or Donnacha Ryan would do themselves a lot of favours by separating themselves from the other in what's become a solid partnership in the last month.

One more Irishman does start for me - Stephen Ferris at 6. Chris Robshaw would be a contender here as well, but the Ulsterman does too much in the loose to be omitted. The same can be said for Sam Warburton who becomes a stronger choice for the number 7 shirt with every day that Sean O'Brien misses high-profile games. This promises to be an intriguing battle to watch next spring. Nick Easter then gets my nod ahead of Heaslip and Toby Felatau for the last spot at Number 8.

Ireland - 6, Wales - 5, England - 3, Scotland - 1

Ronan Murphy's Lions XV: Kearney (c) (please god), Bowe, Davies, Roberts, Craig, Sexton, Care, Church, Strauss, Cole, Ryan, Mike Mc, Denton, Warburton, Heaslip

1. I've started at Number 1 so that I can start with a certainty. There is a nailed on starter at loosehead prop; Cian Healy. Healy is probably the best loosehead in the world at the moment and only injury will prevent him starting all three test in Australia.
2. Richardt Strauss carried his Leinster form into the green shirt and had an excellent Autumn. His greatest challenge at this stage would appear to be a fit Rory Best with none of the other hookers seriously impressing.
3. A position with some depth with Mike Ross and Adam Jones returning from injury but Dan Cole scrummages well and gets around the pitch better than most tightheads.
4. Donnacha Ryan grows in stature with every test he plays. Stepping into the Paul O'Connell role is no mean feat but Ryan has added serious leadership to his work around the pitch and in the lineout.
5. Mike McCarthy had a brilliant November (I could watch him hammering Eben Etzebeth all day) so gets a mention. Expect Alan Wyn-Jones and Paul O'Connell (no matter what he says) to come back into the reckoning with fitness.
6. In the absence of power athletes like Stephen Ferris and Sean O'Brien, I've gone for another of the guise of David Denton. Big and athletic he's a dynamic ball carrier (witness his dumping McCaw on his ass).
7. Sam Warburton is still marginally ahead for the 7 shirt but the sustained form of his compatriot Justin Tipuric might see him struggle to retain his place in Wales. Hasn't shone as a captain with Wales finding themselves in a bit of a hole.in November.
8. Leadership and experience are in Jamie Heaslip's favour after a solid November leading Ireland. Will come under serious pressure from Toby Faletau.
9. Discipline isn't his strong suit but when he's on form Danny Care is great to watch; A good passer and quick off the mark. Mike Philips semi-ostracisation from Wales won't help his cause. If Conor Murray's partnership with Sexton continues to flourish as it did against Argentina, don't rule him out.
10. Johnny Sexton's form will have to take an immense nosedive before anyone will even be considered for the Lions outhalf, and even then...? His competition is less than inspiring.
11. Okay, so maybe it's a bit too soon to be talking of Craig Gilroy in Lions terms but every list needs a bolter.
12. Jamie Roberts hasn't had a stellar Autumn (his big hit against Samoa not withstanding) but in a position without serious depth his partnership with his Welsh colleague seals the deal.
13. Jonathon Davies is one of the only Welsh players to come out of November with reputation enhanced. A good defender with great strength and pace in attack.
14. Tommy Bowe, a class act with much more subtlety to his game than the Welsh monsters.
15. Not a position of particular strength at the moment. Goal kicking isn't going to get the over-praised Leigh Halfpenny into a Lions team, it seems a little too soon for Stuart Hogg and the English options are all a little average. Gatty will be hoping Rob Kearney returns from injury in 2013 as well as he did in 2011/12