Ireland U20s will play their final pool stage game of the World Rugby U20 Championship against Fiji next Tuesday, knowing exactly what they need to qualify for the semi-finals.
After escaping with a 34-34 draw in their first group game against England, before their big 30-10 over Australia yesterday, they have put themselves in an excellent position to continue their quest to win the competition for the first time.
What Ireland U20s Need To Do
We can safely assume that France will get at least a win over Wales in Pool A, which will guarantee them 1st seed.
Given Fiji's results so far in the competition, a win for Ireland is also highly likely. This will guarantee Richie Murphy's men either 2nd or 4th seed (best runner-up), depending on the result between England and Australia.
With the 4th seed playing the 1st seed in the semis, finishing ahead of England and avoiding France will make it a lot easier to reach a first final since 2016.
Unfortunately for Ireland they will be playing before England, and on the poor pitch in Paarl.
This means that they will have to assume England will achieve a comfortable bonus point win, which will likely see them needing at least a 30 point win over Fiji.
If Australia win, then any Irish victory will be good enough for 2nd seed.
Can Ireland lose and still qualify? Yes, but it is slightly more complicated.
If Ireland manage to get a losing bonus point and/or a four try bonus point, they could finish level on points with a numbers of teams from the three pools, with points difference deciding the seedings, or even win Pool B outright if the England vs Australia result goes their way.
The Pool Standings After Two Rounds
Pool A:
Pool B:
Pool C:
The final group (4 July) fixtures are as follows:
Italy U20s vs Georgia U20s - 10.00
Ireland U20s vs Fiji U20s - 12.30
Australia U20s vs England U20s - 13.00
New Zealand U20s vs Japan U20s - 15.00
France U20s vs Wales U20s - 15.30
Italy U20s vs Argentina U20s - 18.00
Above you can see all three pools, and how tight the situation is in Pool C.
South Africa and Argentina have an advantage over Italy with their superior points difference and their later fixture. While the results in this pool have been hard to predict, South Africa will be slight favourites to advance.
Of course there is a situation where Australia beat England, which will put them in the running for a semi-final spot as well, while an England loss with two bonus points would probably see them qualify as best runner up given their points difference.
An Australia victory will also bring New Zealand back into play. Given that they are facing a weak Japanese side, they will fancy themselves to go through as best runner-up if Australia win and England do not pick up two bonus points.
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Our Semi-Final (9 July) Predictions:
Ireland U20s (2nd seed) vs South Africa U20s (3rd seed) - 15.30
France U20s (1st seed) vs England U20s (4th seed) - 18.00
SEE ALSO: Ireland U20s Head Coach Acknowledges The 'Embarrassment Of Riches' Under His Command
