Midway through the second half of Australia and Fiji last Wednesday, all of my tips for that day were looking good. Mark Bennett had scored two tries, Scotland had covered the spread against Japan, and Australia were well on their way to doing the same. Then Fiji finally turned up, and that elusive 100% tip evades us.
That doesn't dampen our spirits however, and here are the three tastiest and most value bets for the weekend's World Cup action.
South Africa v Samoa - Samoa +19
Aside from last week's humilating loss to Japan, South Africa have been in dreadful form in 2015. They lost all three of their games in the Rugby Championship, and their only win of the year came in a World Cup warm up against Argentina five weeks ago.
This is a side devoid of confidence, and they looked rusty last week. Samoa are a better team than Japan, and won't allow the Springboks easy linebreaks and easy points.
This is a very good Samoan team, who will be looking to top the pool after South Africa's loss.
Expect a response from South Africa, but with a handicap that is as big as 19, you have to favour the strong Pacific Islanders.
Extra note: If you can find odds of there being two or more cards shown in the game, do it. These countries have played twice in the last four years, with a combined three yellows, two reds, and another lengthy ban for this happened. Add in the referee being Wayne Barnes, and this could be another fiesty game.
Scotland v USA - Scotland -23
USA are the worst team in this pool, while the improving Scotland have their designs on top spot. The inclusion of the likes of Tim Visser, Mark Bennett, Stuart Hogg, and Sean Maitland mean that there are Scottish tries in this game.
Don't be too worried about the turnaround for the Scots - they've made enough changes, and the USA aren't good enough to challenge them.
Vern Cotter will be expecting a bonus point, and at the prices the majority of the backs are to score a try - so are the bookies. This could be a big score.
Ireland v Romania - Ireland -43
Ireland have become ruthless under Joe Schmidt. When facing a smaller team, Ireland have tended to add more points in the second half. This happened against Italy in the Six Nations in 2014, against Canada last week - and it'll happen this week.
It doesn't matter that Ireland have made changes. In fact, that's probably a good thing. Tommy Bowe needs a good game. Simon Zebo will thrive from fullback given space.
Add to that, the Romanian coach has admitted that Romanian aren't playing their strongest team against us, and this could be a massacre.
