Everyone and his dog is writing Ireland's chances of beating South Africa as less than zero this weekend. Injuries to Johnny Sexton, Peter O'Mahony, et al mean that Ireland are rated as 14 point underdogs to make history and beat South Africa in the southern hemisphere for the first time.
The perceived wisdom is that Ireland are already in damage limitation mode, and would do well to not be beaten out the door.
But that is a gross exaggeration of how good South Africa actually are. They have a new coach who is bedding in his new system, and need to follow along with racial quotas to lift the ban from the South African government on hosting international events.
Here are six reasons why South Africa aren't as good as everyone thinks they are.
Frans Malherbe
South Africa will be without the du Plessis brothers in the front row for the first time in ages after their move to Montpeiller. It means that 25-year-old Frans Malherbe is tasked with locking down the South African scrum.
We know that the Beast at loosehead is amazing, but Malherbe is probably the worst South African prop of all time. His scrummaging is next to horrendous, and Jack McGrath can destroy him.
Ireland could attack the South African scrum to win an unexpected platform.
Faf de Klerk
South Africa have named an uncapped scrumhalf to take on Ireland. The last time they had an inexperienced player at half-back, Ireland got into Handre Pollard's head. Murray will show de Klerk a thing or two - and you'd imagine the Irish pack will be on de Klerk at every opportunity.
De Klerk is a quick and snappy nine, he loves going forward and will make the break from the base. But he's more suspect than he should be under pressure, and isn't an all around scrumhalf a la Murray.
Willie le Roux
The maverick fullback hasn't hit the heights of 2014 in a while. 2015 was almost a write-off for le Roux after he lost form. Ireland managed to keep him locked up in 2014, and you can imagine we'll be able to expose le Roux's defensive deficiencies time and time again.
Jared Payne's selection at full-back means that we have an advantage of the 15s.
Old Wingers
With no Bryan Habana, and South Africa's reluctance to pick their smaller, inexperienced, but terrifyingly good wingers - they've gone with the old reliables in Lwazi Mvovo and JP Pietersen. Both wingers have lost a yard of pace - and are more in the mould of a Schmidt winger than a terrifying game-breaker.
That will make them easier to defend against, and it points to a singular game plan for the Boks - power, power, power. It won't take much to prepare against them, and find ways to exploit the duo.
Bench Impact
Usually, the Boks throttle opponents before bringing on even bigger players to completely destroy opponents.
But it's arguable that Ireland have more bench impact this weekend than South Africa. Jesse Kriel will be one to watch, but the other options are untried or lacking impact. Elton Jantjies, Rudy Paige, and Warren Whiteley have the potential to be great, but they are have inexperienced at international level.
None of South Africa's front row replacements have the potential impact of Sean Cronin, Tadhg Furlong, or even Finlay Bealham.
Ultan Dillane and Craig Gilroy could be fantastic off the bench if Ireland want to up the tempo and pull the bigger pack around.
Second Rows Fighting
Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth will be paired together in the second row, but they don't really like each other. This is what happened the last time they were on the pitch together:
