Leinster must front up at the Gardens
If, like me, you’ve taken a bit of a break from rugby for the last two weeks since ‘they who shall not be named’ did that awful thing, you’ll be gunning for a big Heineken weekend.
The December double header is often the making or breaking of Irish sides, and Leinster & Munster in particular have illustrated how important winning on points can be in the past few years.
Faced with a surprisingly clean bill of health (at the time of writing, only Strauss, Goodman and McFadden from the senior squad are definitely ruled out), Leinster have a chance to take control of Pool 1 with a 5-4 or better double header victory.
But it’d be foolish for any fan to be complacent.
Facing them is a Saints side that’s added a little more nuance to their traditional bosh, and includes some in form England internationals. Despite having lost propping fulcrums Mujati and Tonga'uiha both to Racing Metro last year, Saints recruited very strongly. Three world class players in North, Foutali’I and Lions hero Corbisiero were drafted in, while Aussie tighthead Ma’afu was also added. Combined with talents like Hartley, Lawes, Wood, Manoa, Foden and Waller, Saints are undoubtedly a more balanced side this year, and their league form reflects that.
For Saints though, unlike Leinster, injuries and suspensions have taken their toll – Corbisiero is out until the New Year with knee trouble, the recently returned Foden is injured again while George Pisi misses out after a suspension for his November tackle on Tommy Bowe. However, Northampton’s abrasive, dominant style and a pack choc full of big bruisers will certainly cause the away side trouble.
For their part, Leinster haven’t lost away to an English side since narrowly falling to Wasps in ’09, and will be hoping to take some of the momentum from the All Blacks game. Saffer Zane Kirchner has fitted in nicely already to the Leinster side, meaning Dave Kearney may lose out despite his Autumn performances. There should be a bench full of international talent to call on, with club captain Leo Cullen back in tow too.
While Matt O’Connor has certainly upped the ante in terms of backline moves and fluidity since the last round, for an away trip to middle England we’ll likely see a pack dominated game. Kevin McLaughlin could be asked to do a job on the unheralded but excellent Tom Wood at blindside, while it’s also likely that Toner and McCarthy will be kept as the second row pairing, with Cullen to come on. A Cullen/Toner match up just doesn’t create the same power.
The big choices come at 9 and 10. Both Gopperth and Madigan have flattered to deceive so far, and Reddan has come into some good recent form (Oz aside) after a slow start to the year. For this test though, it’ll likely be Boss to take on the lively and unselfish Karl Dickson and Gopperth to steady the ship at 10. Don’t be surprised to see these berths reversed in the Aviva next Saturday though.
I was present when these two teams met in Donnybrook in an August pre season game, and while Leinster played a third string side, I was impressed with Northampton’s physicality, if not their backline.
Saints are a good, solid European team with plenty of pedigree. They’ll look to test Leinster’s set piece (particularly Mike Ross’ scrummaging and Sean Cronin’s throwing) and it’s no secret that they’ll use their powerful 4-8 to carry hard close in. The loss of Foden and Pisi make their backline more bludgeon than rapier though.
Match these tactics and show some fluidity from 9-15 and Leinster could take 4 points to set themselves up for a home QF. Of course that’s easier said than done.
Prediction – Leinster’s bench to turn the tide after a titanic 80 mins. 1-4 to the away side on points.
Leinster: R Kearney; D Kearney, B O’Driscoll, G D’Arcy, L Fitzgerald; I Madigan, E Reddan; C Healy, S Cronin, M Ross; D Toner, M McCarthy; R Ruddock, S O’Brien, J Heaslip
Dundon, McGrath, Moore, Cullen, Jennings, Reddan, Madigan, D. Kearney.
