Connacht
Of the four provinces, I'll hold my hands up and admit that Connacht's contribution to the Heineken Cup has easily been the smallest. We've never won the thing, for one. On the other hand, I would also argue that of all Irish sides, the Heineken Cup's contribution to Connacht comes very close to matching what it has given Leinster, Ulster and Munster. Three seasons ago, and before that, the Parker Pen/Amlin Shield gave Connacht some good days out, but these were rarities rather than the norm. Two seasons at the top table however (the third begins tonight), and attendances for all games have soared, facilities have improved, and some famous victories have been enjoyed.
However, the Heineken Cup, as we all know, is on rugby's life support machine with the clubs of England and France ready to pull the plug. Last month, Sarries chairman Nigel Wray said clubs like his "would be crazy" to stay in the Heineken Cup, if current structures remain. On the pitch, at least, the feeling amongst fans is that any change to one of the most consistently entertaining competitions in world sport would be madness.
It's for that reason that tonight's game with Saracens leaves a particularly sour taste in the mouth. They travel as England's form team, as one of the strongest contenders for the tournament, and as the warmest of favourites for the game itself. They've won five of five in the Premiership - no one else has more than three wins - scoring three tries a game and winning each match by an average of fifteen points. Connacht on the other hand have lost four on the bounce, and managed only three points against Treviso last week. Twelve players are listed as injured or unavailable - that always seems the way - including our top two tight-head props, who are among up to seven members of an ideal match-day 23.
The omens aren't good, and if the game goes as form suggests, then it may even be a long night. Now, defeat I can accept, even a heavy one. They're never enjoyable but if the better team wins, so be it. But if tonight goes as badly as I fear, then Connacht will have not just lost a mere game, but they will have been beaten by one of the chief instigators of a ridiculous piece of brinkmanship which could ultimately kill what has been the best promoter of rugby that my province has ever had.
The Heineken Cup of 2011/12 saw Connacht, on the back of a losing streak, humble England's top side on a Friday night at the Sportsground. Kieran Hartigan's brilliant documentary The West's Awake chronicles that season, including the memorable win over 'Quins and what the entire journey meant to fans and players alike. Re-watching the film for the bajillionth time last night, I was again struck by how the team's belief never subsided. Eric Elwood urged his men to f*cking win, Johnny O'Connor wanted to ruin Gloucester's weekend. They're both gone now, and though some of the faces under Lam's regime are the same, it feels like a cold dawn has broken over Connacht, over the Heineken Cup, and over rugby itself. A similar stirring performance is desperately needed tonight to banish the pessimism from this fan's heart and, for a brief moment anyway, to remind us all of how special our endangered continental competition truly is.
Leinster
Having gotten used to going into Heineken campaigns on the back of a win against the auld enemy, Leinster are facing into the unfamiliar territory this weekend of a Heineken trip to Wales without their famous number 13, and after a loss in Thomond.
It’s been a very ‘mixed’ start to the season for Matt O’Connor. Schmidt’s shoes are big ones to fill, and nobody expected the Aussie to hit the ground running given the player turnover and fixture list, but two very poor performances against Glasgow and Munster have many fans worried.
Last weekend, Leinster, though this is a bit of a cliché when talking about our southern cousins, were simply outfought for vast periods. The experiment of ‘Predator’ (Lote Tuqiri) at 13 was misjudged, and the former speedster spend much of the evening running decoy lines, before pulling up lame in the midst of his big chance.
More worryingly though, Leinster lacked a coherent attacking plan, with Ian Madigan and Eoin Reddan struggling to find rhythm. This writer would have Gopperth and Boss in the halfback slots for the trip to Ospreys, offering a more controlled, spatially aware presence.
Also in Thomond, thinned down ‘Tullow Tank’ made his seasonal debut, and looked noticeably rusty too. O’Brien will be critical this weekend in the absence of Shane Jennings, and expect the Ospreys to, as usual, target the breakdown. Jamie Heaslip has already spoke of his revulsion at Leinster’s rucking during the re-watch of the Munster game, and fans will be hoping for a marked improvement here.
It’s not as simple as that though. Ospreys have long been Leinster’s bogey team, and in getting rid of ‘galacticos’ like Philips, Byrne and Hook, have found a new, steely identity. A pack with a cornerstone of Lions like Adam Jones, Ryan Jones, AW Jones, Ian Evans, Justin Tipuric and Richard Hibbard and his incredible concrete noggin will be tough to stop. Ospreys have however lost their playmaker in Foutali’I, whom both teams will meet later in the group, but the experienced Tito Tebaldi has filled in well.
Make no mistake, this is a huge, potentially season defining game for Leinster. Defeat here and they’re on the back foot already, while a 1 point win in Wales would do wonders for morale. In the absence of the usual leaders, the second tier like Heaslip, Healy, Kearney and D’arcy need to step up and be counted.
Putting my neck on the line, I reckon we’ll come away from the Liberty with a loss unfortunately, but would love to see Brendan Macken catching fire and inspiring a famous win. Isn’t it great to be back though eh? I mean, who in their right mind doesn’t love a Heineken Cup weekend, eh fellas?
Munster
With the cynical, public bickering that's been going on for the last few months, it has felt like actual Heineken Cup rugby had become secondary to whinging and whining in the press. But the best club competition in world rugby kicks off on Friday evening. And in fine style too with the mouth-watering clash of Ulster and Leicester under the Ravenhill lights. After a deeper run into last seasons competition than anybody expected (myself included!) Munster have looked stronger and more settled this season. And a first win in an age over the old rivals last weekend wasn't a bad way to set things up.
Taking advantage
Munster have easily the softest Pool of the Irish provinces. When the draw was made in June, Pool 6 looked set up for Munster to win and the form of the opposition so far this season won't have changed that perception greatly. Edinburgh sit bottom of the PRO12 with one win to their name while Gloucester are two from five in Gods Gift To Rugby...I mean the Aviva Premiership. Perpignan has had a good start in the Top14 but with the traditional French caveat that they don't do much on the road.
Edinburgh have been on a spectacular downward curve since their semi-final two years ago. A new coaching ticket is taking time to settle and they don't look primed make much of an impression. Munster put 5 tries past them in Cork last month.
Gloucester have a backline to strike fear on paper but they're having trouble building a platform to get them any ball. They lost at home to Exeter last weekend, who powered through them up front.
Perpignan sit in the playoff places of the Top 14 after 9 rounds but have only managed one away win this season. And that against bottom side Biarritz. If they lose a few games early in the competition, their appetite for European Rugby could be severely tested.
The fixture list is fairly optimal too; away to Edinburgh followed by home games to Gloucester and Perpignan. Munster should be 3 wins from the first 3 games.
Set Pieces
Much has been discussed of Rob Penny's tactical approach since his arrival but rugby is still a set piece game and Munster's set pieces have been in rude health this season. Mike Sherry is the most accurate thrower in Ireland these days with targets of Paul O'Connell, Donnacha Ryan and Peter O'Mahony, clean ball is becoming a virtual guarantee (100% against Leinster).
The scrum is also a coming force. BJ Botha is available and the hugely improved Stephen Archer did well in his absence. David Kilcoyne had a stellar season last year in the loose and the tight. But coming up rapidly is James Cronin. The loosehead has been a revelation this season; scoring tries in both his PRO12 starts, shoving fellow Corkman Mike Ross backwards in the scrum and in open play and Munster marched through Leinster's scrum in the final play of Satudays game.
A strong mauling game and the kind of quick ball they were able to generate against Leinster means options are plentiful.
Selection
Tommy O'Donnell is the only major long-term absentee. The Tipp man has had a storming 2013 and will be missed but equally didn't feature in last seasons competition untill after Christmas. Both Peter O'Mahony and Sean Dougall stood in at 7 in the Heineken Cup in 2012 while Niall Ronan played openside against Leinster. With plenty of reshuffling available through CJ Stander and Dave O'Callaghan (he backed-up against Sarries last December) a competitive unit is available. The selection of Paddy Butler to start on Saturday is a surprise but the backrower is clearly rated very highly by Penny.
Rob Penny has nailed his colours to the Ian Keatley mast, declaring him first choice outhalf, and he was rewarded with a MoTM display against Leinster. He bounced back from an early missed penalty to nail the rest of his kicks, made the break that got Munster into Leinster territory and then provided the cross-field kick for the games only try. The Dubliner already has two Heineken Cup starts behind him, both bonus point victories. Conor Murray's continuing growth in stature can negate the loss of master-of-ceremonies ROG, especially if he emulates the form that saw him as probably the best Lions scrumhalf this Summer.
The Munster bench is primed to make an impact against Edinburgh; a front row of Cronin, Varley and Botha, a 90-odd cap lock, the powerful CJ Stander and JJ Hanrahan who already has a try against Edinburgh from the PRO12.
Munster squeaked into the knock-outs by the narrowest of margins last season but a more settled idea if how they want to play plus a sympathetic draw should see them through as Pool winners this season.
Ulster - A stinker of draw. Pool 5 will be all about the fundamentals. Win your home games and grind out a win in Italy. Anyone who manages to get an away win will be in the driver's seat but probably decided by bonus points.
Leinster - Not as bad as Ulster's but still a very tough group. Castres may be distracted by domestic struggles but Osprey's are a bogey for Irish sides (see Munster's sole Pool elimination) and Northampton have added serious quality this Summer in Corbisiero, Fotu'ali and North. Questions will persist about Northamptons's temperment however. Leinster need to avoid the sluggish start that cost them so dearly last year.
Connacht - If Connacht win in Europe, it's because they can focus their energies on one off games. If Connacht lose in Europe, it's because they're not good enough to be in the Heineken Cup. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. So lets hope they do. Improving on last seasons 3 wins doesn't look likely but all of Ireland (and many beyond) would love to see them turn over the big-mouthed Saracens in Round 1.
My quarter finalists - Northampton, Toulon, Glasgow, Saracens, Toulouse, Clermont, Montpelier, Munster
Ulster
After weeks of tawdry public arguing about its future, or lack thereof, the Heineken Cup returns this weekend with a bumper crop of humdinger opening round fixtures. Unsurprisingly, for me the pick of these is the game at Ravenhill, where Ulster will hope to reprise their humiliation of the Tigers.
Whilst it is easy to dislike the East Midlands giants, their fans are as good and as friendly as any and it will make for another cracking night in Ravenhill. 19 months ago Ulster produced one of their best ever performances which left Ben Youngs openly weeping on the bench, Tom Croft buried half way up the old stand and Geordan Murphy vigorously shaking his head as Romain Poite insisted that he was enjoying himself.
However, Leicester are a serious cup team and this represents a shockingly difficult opening assignment for Anscombe’s men that they simply must win. A losing bonus point in next week’s trip to Montpellier would be an excellent result and Ulster cannot afford to be travelling to Welford Road in January needing a win to qualify.
After an inexplicably dreadful start at Rodney Parade, Ulster have gradually improved and seem to be moving through the gears nicely securing an excellent win at the Liberty last weekend. PJ had one of his best games and his goal-kicking was majestic. More of the same will be required this weekend if Ulster are to prevail.
Mark Anscombe has sprung a few surprises with his selection. In the second row, he has gone with Tuohy ahead of Henderson. It could be a wise move as both Tuohy and Wilson are solid and reliable performers who will never let you down (Wilson in particular is super dependable) whilst Henderson will provide much more impact off the bench. Perhaps he’s still not quite right after the knock he picked up against Treviso, or our canny Kiwi coach is saving the young sensation for a big performance in Montpellier.
More surprising is that the recently re-signed Ruan Pienaar starts on the bench. That said, it’s probably fair since he can barely have recovered from the epic encounter in Ellis Park and will hardly have had the time to familiarise himself with the Ulster playbook.
Ulster look strong, with Pienaar, Olding and the in-form Michael Allen on the bench but this will be a super tough assignment. Ulster to win but it will be tight.
Munster travel to Edinburgh for a Saturday lunchtime kick-off which will be almost devoid of atmosphere. Edinburgh have been doing their level best to be worse than they were last season and will struggle to contain a strong Munster side that will be brim full of confidence following their defeat of Leinster last weekend. Although shorn of their captain following his concussion knock on the head, they look very strong, particularly on the bench – I’m really looking forward to seeing a bit more of James Cronin. The Munster pack is looking excellent this season and they have a decent set of backs, with Connor Murray the star. Munster to win without getting out of second gear.
Leinster will not be savouring their trip to Swansea to play their bogie team who will be seething after Ulster put a dent in their impressive home record last Friday. As I write, we still don’t know whether Matt O’Connor will go with Madigan or Gopperth at 10. The Kiwi is the safe option but Madigan rarely lets anyone down and has the talent to win games on his own. I hope the Blackrock man gets the nod because I love to watch him. But the Leinster forwards will need to be on their best form to secure quick ball against a pack containing at least 5 Lions. If they do, the Dublin outfit ought to be too strong – but we’ve all said that before. Too close to call.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look that way at the Sportsground. Pat Lam has endured a pretty rough start to his career in Galway with only one win – at home to Zebre – in the first five rounds of the Rabo. Sarries, who sit on top of the Aviva premiership after a perfect start, travel west for a fixture that will have true rugby fans (that don’t need or appreciate faux atmospheres) drooling – a proper David v Goliath battle that will be played out in front of a sell-out crowd of loyal supporters. It would be even better if there were the traditional sideways rain, but it looks like it’s going to be a fine evening.
Saracens’ owner, Nigel Wray, would love to see Connacht banished from the premier competition as their participation epitomises everything he detests about the current set up. However, as Thorinho pointed out on OTB on Wednesday night, it was the Fezmen that rested 11 players for a routine victory over London Wasps whilst Connacht struggle with injury and poor form. I for one will be praying hard for a Connacht victory – it would be magnificently sweet but I shan’t be betting any of my own money on that outcome. With Zebre also in the group, it looks like Sarries will be competing with Toulouse to see which gets the home quarter-final.
The start of the Heineken Cup is one of the highlights of the season and I am looking forward to cracking open a bottle of red and watching Barnesy, Dewi Morris and Will Greenwood gushing over top flight rugby after their spell in the Championship wilderness. Oooooooohhhhhh bring it on!
