The opening two games of the Six Nations have witnessed Ireland veer between the heartstopping and the showstopping, and in spite of the bookies' eleven-point spread, this weekend's clash with Wales is likely to fall into the former description.
Wales have a raft of their Lions back - George North, Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, and Dan Biggar all return - while Ireland must reckon with the loss of Robbie Henshaw and a deeply mediocre recent record against Wales: Joe Schmidt has won a single Six Nations game against Warren Gatland.
While the Welsh side has been named, Irish fans must wait until Thursday lunchtime before Schmidt names his team. In the interim, read our ideal XV, and then argue with us. Angrily.
Full-back - Rob Kearney
Kearney is in decent form, and in Jared Payne's absence, began this championship as Ireland's first choice full-back. Nothing we have seen thus far has changed that fact.
Wingers - Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls
Earls is in phenomenal form and is one of Ireland's best players, ergo: undroppable. Stockdale's position is more precarious. Six tries in six games is an outrageous return, but there are concerns about his defence, and he has been damned by proximity to a couple of very similar tries conceded against France and Italy. That said, we're tipping him to cling onto the jersey, but needs a big performance.
Centres - Chris Farrell and Bundee Aki
Aki, having made his debut in November, is now the senior centre partner. Ireland are now missing their first three choices for outside-centre (Henshaw, Ringrose, Payne) which is of big concern ahead of Saturday's game. Farrell made his debut in November too, and partnered Aki against Argentina. The Munster man is the most logical choice to slot in at 13 as Ringrose works his way back to full fitness.
Half-backs - Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton
Controversial calls.
Front row - Cian Healy, Rory Best, and Tadhg Furlong
Best and Furlong (fitness permitting) are nailed-on for inclusion. Healy and Jack McGrath have swapped places frequently this year, but Healy probably just has the edge for this weekend.
Second-row - Iain Henderson and James Ryan
Henderson is the senior partner in the second-row these days, thanks to his ballast with ball in hand. Ryan was hugely impressive on his Six Nations debut in Paris, and deserves to hang onto his spot. Devin Toner failed to seize his opportunity against the Italians, and while Alyn Wyn Jones will test the Irish lineout unlike anyone has done in the championship thus far, Ryan should get the nod ahead of Toner.
Flankers - Peter O'Mahony and Dan Leavy
Last year, the depth in Ireland's back-row was such that Peter O'Mahony couldn't force his way into the team. This year, injuries have put a very different shine on things, with O'Mahony utterly undroppable from a line missing Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Rhys Ruddock and Josh Van der Flier. His lineout work will be of added importance as the relatively inexperienced Ryan reckons with Alun Wyn Jones.
Leavy, meanwhile, has impressed thus far bar a couple of defensive aberrations, most notable on the first Italian try in Dublin.
No 8 - Jack Conan
Ok, hear us out. Ireland will need to be creative with ball in hand at some point against Wales, and with the centre partnership stricken by injury, it needs to come from somewhere other than Johnny Sexton. CJ Stander is an outstanding ball carrier but that is often all he does: too often he is content to pick and drive when Ireland may be better by putting the ball through a couple of pairs of hands, particularly if it is moving in the direction of Keith Earls.
Conan does not bring Stander's ball-carrying ability but his hands are terrific, as evidenced on Conor Murray's try against Italy. Also notable was his contribution on Keith Earls try, in which he pounced on a turnover and quickly gave the ball to Sexton on his right shoulder, rather than go to ground as Stander is often tempted to do.
Further to all of that, Stander's impact from the bench will be such that it may be best held in reserve for 50 minutes.
Replacements
Jack McGrath, Sean Cronin and Andrew Porter will provide cover for the front row, with Devin Toner likely to be on the bench too. With Luke McGrath injured, Kieran Marmion will be the scrum-half who won't play and Joey Carbery will offer cover for Sexton. After that, we are tipping CJ Stander for the bench alongside Fergus McFadden, who gives more experience and versatility off the bench than Jordan Larmour.
