The Heineken Cup arrives with a sledgehammer of a weekend, and with Ulster and Connacht in action tomorrow night, two of our nerds set out to provide previews of these potentially fascinating matches. Ulster fan Paddy Logan wrote his piece last night before the Ulster team was picked but still managed to get 14 of the 15 guys right. Proper nerdiness.
Connacht rugby nerd Gavin Grace on Connacht v Biarritz:
My initial reaction to Connacht's Heineken Cup draw this year was one of optimism. Zebre? Brilliant. Two wins very possible. Harlequins? Tough, but we've beaten them before. Biarritz? They're no Toulouse, at least. Second place in that pool, to me, was a tough but achievable goal.
An Amlin Cup Quarter Final was a possibility. Yes, I am an optimist.
Defeat at home to Quins last time out makes that dream even more distant, but it's our injury crisis which may make it unachievable altogether. Connacht are guaranteed to be without 13 players this weekend (including forwards John Muldoon, Michael Swift and George Naoupu as well as Gavin Duffy and Eoghan Griffin). That number could grow further, with Nathan White and Michael McCarthy among those on the treatment table. It's effectively half of the ideal starting team and many others too taken out of the most threadbare squad of any of the provinces.
The players who start will give 100% effort, and then some. They'll be roared on by a passionate crowd. Biarritz will be given an almighty welcome, but as we saw against Toulouse last year, that doesn't always work. Put simply, I'm worried that their pack (bolstered by the return of Harinordoquy) will take control up front, and that the likes of Yachvilli, Traille and Berquist will exploit this in a clinical fashion. A penalty here, a drop goal there... Toulouse used that strategy very well in the Sportsground last year and given the chance to do likewise, then Biarritz are certainly capable of punishing Connacht mistakes.
On paper, they're simply stronger than Connacht's best starting XV, let alone one bereft of many leading stars. Thankfully though sport doesn't happen on paper, so I'm going to make the case for the upset. Biarritz have lost six of their last eight matches, including their last five away from home. Harlequins were stronger than Connacht in the last round, but not overwhelmingly so, and they hammered Biarritz at The Stoop. Connacht are better than last year, and Dan Parks at out half has already shown his ability to manage games, and make the correct decisions, and unleash running rugby from time to time. If the game can be kept close...then you never know.
If Connacht do win, then a follow-up win in France against a disinterested Biarritz isn't out of the question, and then we're all packing our backs for London in January. It's optimistic, it's borderline delusional, but it's sport, and sport is where dreams come true. Will it happen? Probably not. Will I shout myself hoarse for 80 minutes in the hope that it does? You betcha.
Predictions
Connacht 13-22 Biarritz
Northampton 19-23 Ulster
Munster 16-17 Saracens
Clermont 26-16 Leinster
Ulster rugby nerd Paddy Logan previews Ulster v Northampton
Ulster head to Franklin Gardens on Friday looking to extend their extraordinary unbeaten run to 13 matches in all competitions. More importantly, they will be looking to confirm their status as Heineken Cup contenders by beating a strong Saints outfit that despatched them comfortably when they last met in the 2011 quarter-final at the Milton Keynes Bowl.
Northampton, despite a shock loss to London Irish, are lying third in the Premiership, with their only other defeats being narrow losses to Sarries and Leicester. They base their game around a monstrous pack, and one of the most destructive front rows in the game. Mujati and Tonga’uiha might be off to the rapacious Racing next season to finance their retirement, but they will provide a major challenge for the Ulster front row on Friday night. The legality of their technique is questionable, but it’s highly effective. Who can forget the mess they made of the Leinster scrum at the Millennium Stadium in 2011? Hopefully Mark Anscombe will have been on the phone to fellow Kiwi, Greg Feek to find out what tweaks Healy, Strauss and Ross made after half-time to turn things round so dramatically.
Worryingly, Ulster go into the match with only one recognised tight-head in the squad. Afoa is a fabulous player, but he’s only human and asking him to do an 80 minute shift against Mujati and Doran-Jones may be too demanding. There is also some doubt for the first time as to who will start on the other side of Rory Best. Callum Black has been given the nod in recent weeks and has looked excellent, both in the tight and the loose. Tom Court must be hurting from his precipitous descent from Ireland squad to Ulster bench and will be chomping at the bit to get his No1 shirt back. I expect him to start by dint of his superior bulk and experience.
The match-up of the day will be the first of up to three auditions for the Lions No2 shirt between Rory Best and Dylan Hartley, the ‘loveable’ rogue with a taste for Maghaberry digits. Both have just returned from injury, and having watched newcomers perform with elan in their international jerseys, will be keen to put in a performance to show Kidney and Lancaster what they have missed.
Both sides boast physical second rows and Ulster, despite some excellent performances from Neil McComb, will be relieved to have the services of Muller and Tuohy who will have their hands full with the outstanding Samu Mano and Courtney Lawes.
Another interesting cameo will be the return of Roger Wilson to Franklin’s Gardens. He is highly regarded by the Saints fans and I reckon he should start ahead of the more flamboyant Williams. Mr Consistent has put in a number of excellent performances including a couple of MOTMs and will be the cornerstone of a formidable back row with Henderson and Henry on the flanks. And they will need to be at their considerable best as Tom Wood is clearly in outstanding form following his MOTM display in England’s historic thumping of the All Blacks. He will likely be joined by fellow England international Phil Dowson and thrice capped Welshman Rhys Oakley, who joined from Bourgoin at the start of the season.
There will be plenty of quality behind the scrums as well. Mark Anscombe will have the luxury of deciding which two of his three international wingers to start. Interestingly, when Bowe replaced Gilroy at half-time against the Scarlets, he played on the left wing with Trimble, who had an excellent game again, remaining on the right. That said, I’m sure that Bowe will start on the right wing and would not be surprised if Trimble starts to provide the extra physicality with Gilroy coming on once things open up a bit. Either way, it’s a nice problem to have. Anscombe’s other major decision in the back line is whether to start with Luke Marshall or Paddy Wallace. I’d go with Marshall as there is now nothing to choose between the two, so the young man deserves a run.
The Saints’ back line will pose a serious running threat through the Pisi brothers, Ben Foden and Vasily Artemyev, the Russian with the Dublin brogue, who was the star of a Blackrock College team that also contained Lukey Fitz. But it is at half-back where I think Ulster will have the edge. Dickson is a tidy scrum-half but no much for our classy Saffa. Furthermore, both Lamb and Myler, whilst talented, can be flaky. A big game from Jackson should see Ulster edge it and increase the clamour for him to take over from ROG’s ad Jonny’s understudy for the 6 Nations.
My Ulster Team: Payne; Bowe, Cave, L Marshall, Trimble; Jackson, Pienaar; Court, Best, Afoa; Muller, Tuohy; Henderson, Henry, Wilson
Bench: Herring, Black, Lutton, Diack, Williams, Marshall, Wallace, Gilroy
Prediction: Ulster by 5-7
Elsewhere...
Clermont v Leinster: Ridiculously tough assignment for the defending champions at the Stade Marcel Michelin. I expect a good performance but a losing bonus point would be an excellent result.
Munster v Saracens: Another tough match but I think Munster will just have enough to shade it.
Connacht v Biarritz: A trip to the Sportsgrounds would be the Basque side’s worst nightmare and in ordinary circumstances, I would see this as one the Westerners could win. However, Connacht have a shockingly long injury list and Biarritz will have Harinordiquy and Yachvilli back from injury. Regrettably, a 5 pointer for Les Basques.
