You will be forgiven for missing the news amidst the maelstrom of Euro 2016, but Ireland's summer tour of South Africa ended with some slightly disconcerting news for Ireland. Following the 2-1 series defeat, Joe Schmidt was noticeably non-committal on his Irish future. Schmidt's contract with the IRFU expires at the end of next season, with the Irish union eager to extend it further.
Schmidt was asked by the Irish Times whether the narrow series defeat made the decision to renew with Ireland more difficult, replying:
Yeah, for all sorts of reasons. It’s not really my decision to be honest. I’ve got a young fella struggling at the moment. [Schmidt's son Luke has epilepsey]. That’s just the way it is.
There is a feeling that Schmidt's family situation will lead to his returning home, with a contract believed to be on offer from the New Zeland Rugby Union.
The ideal template for a New Zeland coach is one who spent time coaching abroad before returning home to coach within the All Blacks' structures before ascending to the top job: one which Schmidt could fit perfectly.
For example, current coach Steve Hansen - the rugby coach most similar to an Irish TD at a funeral, eagerly waiting for an opportunity to sympathise with the bereaved for shooting off home - coached with Wales between 2002 and 2004 before returning home to work as Graham Henry's assistant, leading to his taking Henry's job after the 2011 World Cup.
Henry also followed this template: he coached Wales and the Lions before returning to take the New Zealand job in 2004, serving a brief period as technical advisor to the Blues in 2003. Henry had lots of experience of the New Zealand system prior to leaving for Wales: he was the head coach of Auckland and then the Blues before leaving for the Northern Hemisphere.
Schmidt by contrast, is lacking that level of experience in New Zeland: his involvement thus far amounts to assistant roles with Bay of Plenty and the Blues.
For New Zealand, then ,the ideal scenario in their hiring of Schmidt would see the Irish coach take charge of a Super Rugby side - probably the Highlanders - in 2017, before replacing Hansen at the end of the 2019 World Cup. The potential spanner in the works for the NZRU, however, is if Hansen decided to step down after the 2017 Lions tour, which would throw the Union's ideal plans for Schmidt off kilter.
Hansen dropped a hint today, however, that he is likely to remain in charge for the 2019 World Cup, telling BBC Radio 5 Live that the onus is on the NZRU:
New Zealand Rugby have got to say they're keen too.
I'm sure if we can sit down, something positive will come.
But there's four things I've looked at. One is the family… is it right for them? Is it right for the team? Is it right for the [New Zealand] Rugby Union and can I still get up in the morning and motivate myself and the team to improve?
So if I can't do all those things, I won't do it. If I still think I can do it and the players are keen on me to do it then I'll think about it.
Hansen was asked if he still had that motivation, and he replied:
That's one thing I find out during the latest series [a 3-0 win over Wales] that it's still there and I love winning and I love that team.
It is looking increasingly likely we are entering the final months of the Schmidt era.
