Like Warrenball's attacking strategy, the results of this Lions tour have taken on a predictable pattern.
Weekends bring wins; midweeks furnish defeats.
The squad is increasingly cleaved into players who'll play the Test matches, those who will be relied upon against the Super Rugby sides, and Jack Nowell.
The identity of that side for the starting XV for the opening game with the All Blacks in Eden Park is coming into sharper focus, but there remain a few players floating between either test. So, how will it look?
We're going to take a stab at predicting the Test squad Gatland will pick, and then argue for the changes we believe he should make to that. There is an element of speculation to all of this, but we are basing this on form, and what each player is likely to offer against the fearsome hosts. But as we all know, Gatland is capable of setting off some shockwaves with a Lions Test teamsheet.
The Lions Test squad Gatland will pick vs the squad he should pick
There's a general rule in all sports that, when the pressure is at its most intense, managers and coaches will revert to what they know best. That's what Gatland did in the third Test against Australia four years ago, and he'll likely do the same against New Zealand.
Therefore, we are likely to see plenty of Welsh players in the opening test: they are the players he can trust best to execute his gameplan.
That plan will be similar to what we saw against the Crusaders, which was drunk on tactical kicking and scorching defensive line-speed.
Full-back - Leigh Halfpenny
With Stuart Hogg heading home through injury, there's a vacancy at full-back. Jared Payne didn't make the most of his chance against the Highlanders, and while Anthony Watson was electric against the Crusaders, we expect Gatland to stick with the man of the series four years ago, Leigh Halfpenny. The Lions will need perfection off the kicking tee, and Halfpenny is the player who best offers that.
Should be: Anthony Watson
Wingers - George North and Liam Williams
There has been a consistent weakness on the wings so far on this tour, with Tommy Seymour spending most of the tour looking less incisive than the Scottish Claymore Sword. If the answer is Jack Nowell the question is irrelevant, meaning that there are no challengers to the incumbents, Liam Williams and George North.
Should be: George North and Liam Williams
Outside-centre - Jonathan Davies
When Gatland last picked a squad for a Lions Test match, he sent a nation into the state of extreme indignation which they do better than anyone. He was utterly vindicated by picking his man at 13 four years ago, and we don't forsee a change this time around. Barring injury, expect Jonathan Davies to start again. Ben Te'o has performed admirably so far, and we feel that the Lions need his physicality against the ABs to be consistent with how we'd like to see things...
Should be: Ben Te'o
Inside-centre - Ben Te'o
Te'o has clearly impressed Gatland, having been picked in this squad having only started one game in the Six Nations. We think he should be at thirteen to allow the Farrell/Sexton axis to live, but we think that it won't happen in the first test, although Gatland may use the Maori game on Sunday to trial it for another twenty minutes or so.
Should be: Owen Farrell
Outside-half - Owen Farrell
On current form, Farrell edges Jonathan Sexton in a straight battle for the No.10 jersey. But Gatland faces a conundrum: should he play them both? Injury to Jonathan Davies against the Crusaders meant we earned a tantalising glimpse of how it would work: Farrell remained effective, while it was by some distance Sexton's best performance on tour. In a basic sense, having the most influential players in the two best sides in the Northern Hemisphere on the pitch for as long as is possible should give Lions a much higher chance of winning.
Should be: Johnny Sexton
Scrum-half - Conor Murray
If Gatland does an O'Driscoll on Murray, then we might have proof that he just doesn't like us. He won't, and we don't think he's arsed about what we think of him.
Should be: Conor Murray
Loosehead prop - Mako Vunipola
Vunipola was outstanding against the Crusaders: part of an unfaltering scrum, while hugely effective in the loose. Expect him to edge out Jack McGrath, who remains a fine option from the bench, but is slightly tainted by association with the scrum implosion against the Highlanders.
Should be: Mako Vunipola
Hooker - Jamie George
Rory Best restored some credit against the Highlanders, but we feel he is built to lead the midweek team. Gatland clearly rates Ken Owens, but George is probably the right answer, as the most mobile of the three.
Should be: Jamie George
Tighthead prop - Tadhg Furlong
Furlong's scrummaging has been outstanding thus far: lining one All Black after another to leave them shuffling away in bewilderment, with a kind of post-traumatic scrum disorder. His handling has been slightly below-par, but he should make the starting side.
Should be: Tadhg Furlong
Second-rows - Alun Wyn-Jones and George Kruis
Alun Wyn-Jones should be nailed down for a start, having captained the team in the third Test four years ago. The identity of his partner will cause most debate: George Kruis, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes and Iain Henderson have all made compelling cases for inclusion. Kruis was selected for the Crusaders game, and we expect him to get the nod. Itoje's impact off the bench - and ability to cover 6 - means he is likely to be held in reserve. Henderson will push him hard, while Lawes' heavy head injury against the Highlanders might set him back.
Should be: Alun Wyn-Jones and George Kruis
Blindside flanker - Sam Warburton
Here's where we may see a surprise. Gatland will be determined to get his captain into the starting team for the first Test, but will be loathe to deviate from Justin Tipuric at openside. That means he may re-jig the back-row to find a role for Warburton: he did so against Australia in the 2015 World Cup, and we think that he might gamble on that once again. We don't think that Warburton has done enough to force his way in over Peter O'Mahony.
Should be: Peter O'Mahony
Openside flanker - Justin Tipuric
Sean O'Brien was outstanding against Crusaders last weekend, but Tipuric's ball-retrieving capabilities are nigh on unrivaled, and we feel Gatland will value this over O'Brien's superior ballast, and will likely spring the Irishman from the bench.
Should be: Sean O'Brien
Number 8 - Taulupe Faletau
Billy Vunipola's injury has left the jersey to Faletau, and he has done nothing to discard it, with CJ Stander his only true competition in the squad.
Should be: Taulupe Faletau
Replacements
What we expect:
Jack McGrath, Ken Owens, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Sean O'Brien, Rhys Webb, Johnny Sexton, Anthony Watson
What we think he should pick:
Jack McGrath, Ken Owens, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje, Justin Tipuric, Rhys Webb, Robbie Henshaw, Elliot Daly
