After an abject performance against the Wallabies last Saturday, Ireland have a shot at redemption against the reigning world champions who are looking to finish their year off with a 100% win record.
As a fan, it’s hard to watch Ireland when they under perform to such a degree. Whilst I accept that we have a tendency to over-estimate the ability of our national team, there is no way that they are as poor as they looked at the weekend. The lack of line-speed, aggression and general lethargy displayed by the team is inexplicable and the ease with which the Aussies sliced through our porous defence was shocking. It’s been said endlessly in the last 5 days but it bears repeating – unless the boys in green up their intensity massively and shore up their defence, the All Blacks will run riot.
I remain confident that Schmidt is the right man for the job. Nothing he does in the week running up to the game can account for Toner dropping a straight forward lineout ball, SOB spilling the ball in contact or Jonny missing a kick to touch. Talking of which, it looked pretty clear from the outset that Monsieur Sexton was mal a jambe from the outset. His first two line kicks (one missed and one making poor yardage) were wobbly and despite some decent play in the second quarter, he was some way of his best. He remains the best 10 in Europe but it’s questionable whether he should play when unfit. I really wouldn’t expect him to play this weekend.
There were some signs of quality attacking play as Ireland clawed their way back after gift-wrapping two tries for the honey badger and man of the match, and Australia’s second best openside, Michael Hooper. But there were far too many mistakes, not to mention some cynical transgressions from the shackle-draggers, which prevented any consistent pressure. Let’s hope we see more of the cutting edge that Schmidt instilled in Leinster next Sunday.
Much more worrying was the defensive display. It was very ordinary stuff and alarming primarily because we have seen it before: most notably in the World Cup quarter-final against Wales and then in the Six Nations match against the same opposition at the Aviva just under 2 years ago. In those games Ireland stood off the Welsh and conceded the gainline time and again with predictable results. It happens too often for it not to be a deliberate tactic and I am beginning to wonder whether Schmidt got his selection of defensive coach right. I hope so because I like and respect Les Kiss but things have really got to improve.
Another worry was Mike Ross’s performance. Ireland were beaten badly in the scrum where they fell foul of the Aussie tactic of stepping to the left and then driving across onto Mike Ross as demonstrated in this excellent video posted on this site early this week. It doesn’t look legal and Ross was certainly the victim of some poor calls by Mr Pollock, but that he was unable to deal with the situation at all was a concern. I am also hugely disappointed that Schmidt opted for Archer over Marty Moore as the reserve tighthead. The young Leinster prop looks a far better bet and really deserves his chance.
Of course, it wasn’t just Ross who had a bad day at the office. Tommy Bowe, BOD and Eoin Reddan will surely never have played so poorly in a green shirt. And one would hope that it can’t happen again. I expect Murray to come in for Reddan. Although the Munster pivot continued the Irish malaise of kicking loosely to the world’s best full-back, his passing looked really sharp.
Ireland’s kicking will really have to improve because New Zealand’s back 3 is at least as good as the Wallabies’. Clearly they won’t be able to go through the match without kicking, but when they do, they must get more distance and more hang time on the contestables, and look to find grass or the stand more often. Giving Israel Dagg a free run is not a good plan.
Luke Marshall was one of the very few positives to be taken from the loss to Australia. As he admitted, he was at fault for the defensive lapse that let in Cooper for Australia’s third try, but otherwise he was strong in defence and made some good line breaks and showed great vision and passing ability. Therefore I am really disappointed to see that he will be playing against Edinburgh at Ravenhill this Friday. I understand the rationale for putting D’Arcy in alongside a tyro out-half (I reckon it will be Jackson), but I don’t think that is necessary and it seems a retrograde selection.
Worse still, Ireland’s best player from last weekend will miss the All Blacks match with a broken hand. Although I am not a huge fan of McFadden on the wing, he had an excellent game and I am sorry that he won’t be playing on Sunday. I would love to see Trimble replace him as I believe the Coleraine flyer is unfairly maligned and hugely under-rated outside of Ulster. However, that would be harsh on David Kearney who did really well against Samoa and deserves to be the next cab off the rank.
Dave’s big bro is nursing bruised ribs and may struggle to make it for the weekend. If that’s the case I expect to see Madigan at full-back, although Henshaw might get the nod. That said, the Connacht youngster looked all at sea against the Aussies, which suggests he might not be ready to face the All-Blacks just yet.
So the odds are stacked against Ireland and whilst some Irish team has got to break the duck, I really cannot see it happening this weekend. This New Zealand side is operating at a different level as their stunning win over the Boks last month demonstrated. Carter may be missing, but Cruden is some replacement and would get into most other international teams. It is hard to spot a weakness and unless the All Blacks have an off day, Ireland are going to have to play out of their skins just to stay in touch.
That said, Ireland have rattled the All Blacks as recently as June last year when a last gasp Dan Carter drop goal robbed Ireland of a draw. The Irish defence that day was the polar opposite of the lacklustre approach of last weekend. Let’s hope Paulie can motivate the team with one of his manic aggression speeches to put it up the Kiwis.
