From the outset of this World Cup, it seemed inevitable: Ireland's path to progression from the formidable Group B was contingent upon overcoming Scotland. This week has been filled with distractions in the media in the build-up to Ireland v Scotland. South Africa's director of rugby has been lobbing verbal volleys at the Irish side, while the French press has been rife with some outrageous whispers. That there was an understanding between the two Celtic nations to engineer a scenario sending South Africa homeward bound by Sunday.
Yet, amidst the noise of pre-match banter and media speculations, the true essence of the game remains untouched. The winners won't be those who dominate the headlines but those who've rigorously primed themselves physically, mentally and strategically.
While there are some fascinating permutations around the outcome of this game, the implications are clear: the loser will make their way back to Dublin or Edinburgh, while the winners will gear up to face the formidable All Blacks next week in a quarter-final. The conclusion to Group B is nothing short of intricate.
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Ireland v Scotland: the last 20 minutes
Come Saturday night, Ireland supporters should brace themselves for a roller-coaster ride, as the fate of the game will likely hinge on its final moments. Historically, Ireland has made a habit of taking Scotland by storm in these Ireland v Scotland games, with an early flurry of tries in 7 of their last 8 encounters, effectively extinguishing any Scottish hopes of a victory. Yet, this Rugby World Cup narrative suggests a shift in the pattern.
Given that both sides have faced the same three teams in the tournament, a comparative analysis unveils intriguing insights. Ireland boasts the highest scoring rate in the tournament's final quarter, underscoring their superior mental and physical prowess. Their clever use of substitutes and their superior physical conditioning of the players has been instrumental in their success.
However, a word of caution looms large. Both Scotland and Ireland have maintained a water-tight defence in the last quarter, not giving away a single point. As the clock ticks down on Saturday, it won't merely be a battle of skill but a true testament to which team can better weather the intense pressure of the closing moments.
Lineout Battle
The spotlight this week ahead of Ireland v Scotland returns to Ireland's lineout, a facet of their game that continues to raise eyebrows. Recording a 77% success rate in their initial three matches, there's evident room for improvement.
Their encounter with South Africa presented an early jolt, as the latter introduced some unconventional lineout strategies.
Lineout Defence - The issues around using your "PLUS" (tailgunner) defender in your Lineout Defence. Will #SCO look to use same strategy this week #IREvSCO #RugbyWorldCup - Brave to give Sheehan & co this space. pic.twitter.com/Q4N984EVNu
— Brett Igoe (@brettruganalyst) October 4, 2023
Scotland, in their playbook, may introduce the "plus" defender to aid in their lineout defence, a tactic Ireland must be prepared for. However, if Scotland ventures down this route, watch out for Ireland to counter with one of their signature moves at the lineout's rear end.
Top class stuff from Dan Sheehan! Ireland are back in the groove 💪 #IREvENG pic.twitter.com/3HTD0Swkek
— Balls.ie (@ballsdotie) March 18, 2023
Scotland’s go-to play
Every team has its signature move, and for Scotland, it revolves around the brilliance of their fly-half, Finn Russell. Central to Scotland's attacking strategy, Russell seeks to mastermind plays where he can seize the ball in the heart of the pitch, targeting the Irish midfield.
Russell's favoured tactic emerges from a maul-based attack. The play starts with the ball moving through the 12, only for Russell to artfully loop around and reclaim it. This positions him to charge at Ireland's Ringrose, armed with a plethora of choices - allies both to his left and right and the ever-present kicking option to the wide winger. It's a move that's as challenging to perfect as it is to counter. Ireland's response to this intricate play could very well tilt the scales of the match in their favour.
The Scottish Strike play that could cause #ire issues this weekend - #IREvSCO #RugbyWorldCup pic.twitter.com/NR6jwc11ic
— Brett Igoe (@brettruganalyst) October 4, 2023
Ireland’s Attack
Anticipate a dominant Irish attack display in Ireland v Scotland that promises to challenge Scotland's defensive mettle this Saturday in Paris. Ireland's strategy is likely to focus on maintaining tightly-knit attacking pods, ensuring the Scottish defence remains constricted. With the experienced Sexton at the helm, Ireland has an adept playmaker who knows when to hold back and when to unleash the ball into wider parts of the field.
With quality players like Keenan and Ringrose, and given Aki's current form, wingers such as Hansen and Lowe will relish the opportunity to receive sharp, flat passes and attack their opposite number head-on. However, the key lies in patience. Ireland's formidable forward pack must first lay the groundwork, utilising their superior ball-carrying abilities to set the stage for the backs to shine.
Expect Ireland to keep width in attack / narrow up Scotland's Defence with narrow passing Pods. #IREvSCO #RugbyWorldCup pic.twitter.com/HBIUieNyXw
— Brett Igoe (@brettruganalyst) October 3, 2023
Ireland’s Kicking Game/Scotland’s backfield defence
Ireland is likely to persist with their tactic of targeting the space behind the Scottish defensive line, capitalising on the positioning of the Scottish full-back. As this fullback often pushes up to join the defensive line, it leaves a significant gap in the backfield. This vulnerability was evident in Scotland's opener against South Africa, and it appears they haven't rectified this lapse from previous games. Ireland will be keen to exploit this oversight, using their kicking game to keep Scotland on the back foot.
Expect Ireland to explore going over the top of Scotland's Defence. Big opportunities at times - note #RSA📷 try earlier in tournament from Libbok's kick. #IREvSCO #RugbyWorldCup pic.twitter.com/RjZoNjs1PI
— Brett Igoe (@brettruganalyst) October 2, 2023
In the intricate chess game of international rugby, every tactical choice has a ripple effect, shaping the trajectory of the match. Ahead of the Ireland v Scotland battle on Saturday night in Paris, their strategies will be pivotal in determining the outcome. While Ireland seems poised to capitalise on the aerial gaps in Scotland's defence, it remains to be seen how Scotland will counter.
One thing is certain: whoever loses is on the plane home on Sunday morning.
