The final test of the Autumn Internationals and a potential clean sweep in November await Ireland as they approach Saturday's game against Argentina.
For Joe Schmidt, this test is the most important of the three. There is a very simple reason for that, it is a re-match of that infamous 2015 Quarter-Final which saw Ireland crash out of the World Cup.
That game remains the lowest moment of Schmidt's tenure and is something he regularly references. It was a monumental learning curve for both the squad and for Schmidt and should be remembered when considering the upcoming challenge.
Ireland's squad depth was exposed after we lost Paul O'Connell, Johnny Sexton, Sean O'Brien, Peter O'Mahony and after 14 minutes Tommy Bowe. In Ireland's defence, that was unpredictable and most probably 4 of Ireland's 5 most important players.
It was also one of the very few occasions when Schmidt was outclassed tactically. Argentina's willingness to go wide totally blitzed Ireland's narrow defence and the scrum did not hold up, most notably in the first ten minutes when the Irish scrum was driven metres back on their own ball before conceding the penalty that led to Argentina's second try.
Since then Andy Farrell has been appointed defence coach and has brought a level of aggression to Ireland's defensive line but questions over their width remain. Meanwhile, Greg Feek has done magnificent work with the scrum ensuring Ireland have only lost one scrum on their own ball this year.
With that in mind, here's the Ireland team that should start on Saturday, 1-15:
Healy, Herring, Furlong; Dillane, Henderson; O'Mahony, O'Brien, Stander; Murray, Sexton; Stockdale, Aki, Henshaw, Sweetnam, Conway.
Cian Healy is a rejuvenated animal and deserves a chance to build up some form after his start last week. Jack McGrath is still the favoured option heading into the Six Nations but an in-form Healy off the bench after 60 minutes is a great weapon to have.
Rob Herring and Ultan Dillane, while extremely unlikely, should start. This is not a reflection on Rory Best or Devin Toner but a decision based on a long-term outlook. Devin Toner has played the last two tests. He is established and Schmidt knows precisely what he will get from the Leinster man. Likewise with Best. A phenomenal captain and selfless contributor around the paddock, Best's position is assured.
This is precisely why a change is required. James Ryan is 21, now a regular at Leinster and an exciting prospect two years out from a World Cup buthas only three Ireland caps and didn't play last week due to injury. Alongside Ultan Dillane, he is a player earmarked as an option to bolster second-row options. The opportunity for either one of them to garner some invaluable game time looks scarce over the rest of the season, given the win-at-all-costs mentality of the Six Nations, and the gruelling three-test tour that awaits in Australia next summer.
Depth for the World Cup would require players in their mid-20s to have at least 25 more caps than Ryan and Dillane have now. It was a problem during the 2015 quarter-final, Jordi Murphy, Chris Henry and Iain Henderson did not have enough exposure at that level. Ryan is unlikely to be fit so on that basis Dillane should be picked.
The same logic is applied to opting for a different hooker in Herring and winger in Darren Sweetnam. Even with the impact they have on world rankings, the November Internationals are one of the few opportunities to develop players. The Irish line-out imploded during 2017's Six Nation's losses to Scotland and Wales when we lost 2 and 3 of our own ball throw-ins respectively. As well as Peter O'Mahony, Devin Toner and Rory Best are crucial to its success. It is concerning to carry these kinds of reliances into a world cup.
Zebo's departure has left a void at full-back for Munster and Ireland, on recent form Andrew Conway is the most suitable option to fill that.
Schmidt is excellent for involving players for the future in training camps, it is time he takes the same approach to game time.
