Andy Farrell will name his Ireland squad for the 2024 Six Nations next Wednesday, January 17. In what will be his fourth tournament as head coach, he will presumably opt for a squad size of 37, as he has done for the past two editions of the competition.
With retirements and injuries there will be new and returning faces since his last Ireland squad, but given the strength in depth Farrell has built up during his tenure and his preference for players who know his system, we do not expect wholesale changes.
If there are to be uncapped or less experienced players selected, they look likely to come from Munster, with a handful of them continuing their superb form this season in yesterday's win away to Toulon.
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Assessing The Options For Ireland's 2024 Six Nations Squad
Props
Fairly easy to predict for the most part, with Andrew Porter, Cian Healy, Jeremy Loughman, Tadhg Furlong, and Finlay Bealham looking nailed on for selection.
The IRFU were keen to get Oli Jager back to these shores after his years Down Under with the Crusaders, and he has not disappointed for Munster so far.
Tom O'Toole has been his usual consistent self for Ulster, and has not done much to warrant being dropped from the squad, but we reckon Farrell may spring a surprise here and opt for Jager.
There is the option to bring seven props, but we're not sure the coaches - at this cut-throat level of the game - will see the need to accommodate this.
We predict:
- Andrew Porter
- Cian Healy
- Jeremy Loughman
- Tadhg Furlong
- Finlay Bealham
- Oli Jager
9 January 2024; Ireland rugby ; Oli Jager during Munster rugby squad training at the University of Limerick in Limerick. Photo by Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile
Hooker
Dan Sheehan and Rónan Kelleher will continue their monopoly of the Irish no.2 and no.16 jerseys for the considerable future, as long as both men remain fit.
While Tom Stewart has been unable to prise the starting hooker jersey at Ulster from Rob Herring, the latter looks likely to miss a chunk of Ireland's Six Nations campaign, making Andy Farrell's decision a lot easier.
We predict:
- Dan Sheehan
- Rónan Kelleher
- Tom Stewart
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Lock
Probably Ireland's strongest area in terms of form/depth at the minute, with four arguably world class options to choose from in James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Tadhg Beirne, and Joe McCarthy.
Tom Ahern began this season superbly at second-row before being moved to blindside flanker, where his form went up another gear, with his speed and athleticism being utilised to full effect out in the wide channels.
However, given that Peter O'Mahony, Ryan Baird, and Jack Conan should make the squad, we reckon Ahern might be selected at lock.
He was returned to the second row - to accommodate the return of O'Mahony - for yesterday's magnificent win over Toulon, and his effectiveness out wide did not seem to be hampered in the slightest.
Four locks has been the norm in Farrell's Six Nations squads, but it would be disappointing not to see the man who for many has been Munster's player of the season so far.
Since being selected as a development player for the 2021 Autumn Internationals, Farrell has shown a clear liking for Ahern, and but for ill-timed injuries he may already have been capped.
We predict:
- Joe McCarthy
- Tadhg Beirne
- James Ryan
- Iain Henderson
- Tom Ahern
Munster 𝖒𝖆𝖌𝖎𝖈 ✨@Munsterrugby extend their lead after half time!#InvestecChampionsCup #RCTvMUN pic.twitter.com/sYW9Co41og
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Ryan Baird stretches his legs#LEIvSFP pic.twitter.com/Ix5XV6a4Mq
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Back Row
We reckon there will be at least one change to last year's group of seven.
Our initial squad featured Will Connors, after his starring role in Leinster's win away to La Rochelle, where he and Josh van der Flier provided an effective one-two punch and a blueprint on how to take down an gargantuan French side.
However, while Connors was missing out on Leinster selection this weekend, Munster's John Hodnett was phenomenal against Toulon, making 20 tackles and one turnover in what was an elite defensive shift.
It was a defining performance - his best in a red shirt so far - and one that will be hard for the Irish selectors to ignore. If he is chosen by Farrell, it will be a positive move that shows the head coach is willing to bring in those who have less international experience but have shown the desire and talent to take the next step.
Ryan Baird, while being named as a back row but generally playing in the second row for Ireland, looks to have fully transitioned to blindside flanker, while Tadhg Beirne may also feature at 6.
As such, Caelan Doris and Jack Conan can focus on their duties as number eights, with Gavin Coombes, despite an excellent showing against Toulon, likely to be deemed surplus to requirements.
We may also see the in-form Nick Timoney called up, fresh off a stunning game in Ulster's win over Leinster, in which case Cian Prendergast will probably make way.
We predict:
- Ryan Baird
- Peter O'Mahony
- Josh van der Flier
- John Hodnett
- Cian Prendergast
- Caelan Doris
- Jack Conan
Scrum-Half
No changes here from last year's squad.
Murray should continue his habit of underperforming for Munster, before turning it on and producing impressive cameos for Ireland.
Blade has been the stand out scrum-half in Ireland this year, and at 29 he will be an option for the 2025 World Cup. However, the investment in Casey and his experience in Ireland camp will unlikely see him dropped for the Connacht 9.
We predict:
- Jamison Gibson-Park
- Conor Murray
- Craig Casey
Out-Half
The most anticipated storyline for Ireland, player-wise, sees Jack Crowley finally step up to first-choice out-half, following the historic reign of Johnny Sexton.
Farrell has consistently shown love for Ciarán Frawley as an out-half, while his versatility allows for a possible 6-2 bench split.
Furthermore, with no Mack Hansen or Jimmy O'Brien, Frawley's experience at fullback adds further value to his presence in the squad.
He was forced off early in the second-half against Stade Francais, but Leo Cullen has said that it was just a minor knock.
With Ross Byrne unlikely to be fit, that puts his brother Harry as the most likely alternative, although he missed this weekend due to an ankle injury, and his fitness is uncertain.
His form has also been erratic this season, but he was excellent in his forty minutes against La Rochelle, in what was the biggest start of his career thus far.
Billy Burns' Player of the Match showing against Leinster puts him firmly back in the mix, and he could force himself ahead of Byrne with a similar performance against Toulouse this weekend. His lack of goal kicking practice, however, is a concern.
Jack Carty and JJ Hanrahan also remain outside bets.
We predict:
- Jack Crowley
- Ciarán Frawley
- Harry Byrne/Billy Burns
10 July 2021; Ireland rugby ; Harry Byrne of Ireland during the International Rugby Friendly match between Ireland and USA at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
Centre
After missing last year's tournament, Robbie Henshaw will be back and looking to regain his form of 21/22 and perhaps break-up the Aki/Ringrose partnership.
A fit Jamie Osborne would have challenged Stuart McCloskey for that fourth centre spot, but Ulster's go to man should keep his place.
There is a possibility, however, that Antoine Frisch or James Hume could force themselves in, if Farrell is looking to the future. Both have been superb this season, but probably did not do enough this weekend to usurp any of the four incumbents.
We predict:
- Bundee Aki
- Stuart McCloskey
- Garry Ringrose
- Robbie Henshaw
Outside Backs
The injuries to Mack Hansen and Jimmy O'Brien leaves a void at both wing and fullback, with a host of options to choose from.
James Lowe, Hugo Keenan, Jacob Stockdale, and Calvin Nash looked nailed on, while Shane Daly, and one of Jordan Larmour or Robert Baloucoune look likely to join them.
There have been strong calls to bring Simon Zebo back in from the cold, but his teammate Daly's involvements with Ireland A and Emerging Ireland should see him picked, as well as his ability to cover wing and centre.
If Zebo is not seen as someone for the match day 23s, there would not be much reason to bring back the 33-year-old.
While it would be one less outside back than 2023, it should be more than enough cover.
Outside bets include Shayne Bolton and Tommy O'Brien.
We predict:
- James Lowe
- Jacob Stockdale
- Calvin Nash
- Jordan Larmour
- Shane Daly
- Hugo Keenan
29 November 2020; Ireland rugby ; Shane Daly of Ireland during the Autumn Nations Cup match between Ireland and Georgia at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile
Our 2024 Six Nations Squad Prediction:
Prop:
Andrew Porter, Cian Healy, Jeremy Loughman, Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham, Oli Jager.
Hooker:
Dan Sheehan, Rónan Kelleher, Tom Stewart.
Second Row:
James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Joe McCarthy, Tom Ahern.
Back Row:
Peter O'Mahony, Ryan Baird, Cian Prendergast, Josh van der Flier, John Hodnett, Caelan Doris, Jack Conan.
Scrum-Half:
Jamison Gibson-Park, Conor Murray, Craig Casey.
Out-Half:
Jack Crowley, Ciarán Frawley, Harry Byrne/Billy Burns.
Centre:
Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Robbie Henshaw, Stuart McCloskey.
Outside Backs:
James Lowe, Jacob Stockdale, Calvin Nash, Jordan Larmour, Hugo Keenan, Shane Daly.
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