What a difference a year makes. In our very first way too early prediction for the 2019 Ireland World Cup squad - I didn't even include Ultan Dillane or Josh van der Flier. That prediction was made last March, and the year both players have had since then show exactly why both make me look pretty bad.
NOTE: After incorrectly predicting in 2012 that Brian O'Driscoll would play in the 2015 World Cup, I'm playing safe on the likes of Healy, Sexton, Bowe, Trimble, Earls, Fitzgerald, O'Brien et al on still playing in 2019. If they are it's a pleasant surprise rather than being upset when I pick them and they aren't.
And because those two players have shown their potential, I felt it was time to update my prediction for Ireland's 2019 World Cup squad - a full three years before it's necessary. Partly because if it's anything like the real thing I'll look good - if it's not then who will remember after three years? But it's also informative.
Comparing this year's prediction with last - both Dillane and van der Flier come straight into the 31 - with Rhys Ruddock and Quinn Roux missing out. Finlay Bealham also replaces Conan O'Donnell, and James Cronin leapfrogs Jeremy Loughman. Leinster's James Tracey also comes in to take last year's U20 hooker Zack McCall's place.
In the backs, Paddy Jackson has had a remarkable year to change my opinion of him, and Stuart McCloskey beats out Stuart Olding.
It tells us what positions have an overflow of talent - inside centre and backrow; and what positions we need to find a solution to in the next three years - hooker, wingers and outhalf.
Ireland aren't good at producing hookers. In fact, no Ireland U20 hooker has gone on to make an international appearance. Since World Rugby changed youth level from U21s to U20s Ireland have had 21 hookers. Of those, only five are still playing in Ireland and have PRO 12 experience. Duncan Casey is the most likely to break that duck, but ten years is too long to produce a hooker.
It also seems strange to not have many winger options with the logjam that's happening at the moment. Making a safe assumption that Luke Fitzgerald, Bowe, Trimble, and Earls aren't available - and Rory Scholes' move to Edinburgh negatively hampers his international chances then who else is there? Ciaran Gaffney will be fantastic for Connacht when he's given his chance - the utility back glides across the ground and plays extremely intelligenty, and by 2019 Zebo will have learned the nuances of defensive positioning at full-back too.
Paddy Jackson's stellar 2015/16 season has lifted him into consideration from the last team - previously I had the still injured Tyler Bleyendaal. Hopefully by 2019 JJ Hanrahan will be back on these shores giving Schmidt (fingers crossed) more options.
