Two bonus point defeats to Saracens have cost Ulster dear in their quest to reach the quarter-final stage of the Champions Cup and retain Irish interest in the competition. Fortunately for the northern province, all is not lost.
Wins over French clubs Toulouse and Oyonnax mean that Ulster are still in with a good shout of claiming one of the three best runner-up spots. It's far from certain that they will have enough points even if they claim a maximum bonus point win over Oyonnax.
Ulster will need some results to go there way with one and a half rounds of the pool stage left. For Ulster it's simple. They cannot catch Saracens for first place, and they can't be caught by Oyonnax for second. They simply need a bonus point victory at home to Oyonnax to give themselves the best chance of qualifying. You'd imagine that a struggling Top 14 team away from home in a dead rubber won't be too pushed, and Ulster are likely to get the five points.
It's just unfortunate for Ulster that every other pool is in a position to have a second placed team reach 19 points and would have more than Kiss' men. Here's the state of play in each pool, and what each game means for Ulster.
Pool 2:
This pool is fairly simple. If Ospreys beat Exeter away like they should they will win the pool. That means that it'll come down to Clermont hosting Bordeaux. A French team away from home, like Bordeaux are traditionally not interested in the Champions Cup, and therefore it's quite easy to see Clermont winning the game with a bonus point. Bordeaux will know next Sunday that they are out of contention for one of the best runners up spots, and probably won't care about the result.
It's likely that 19 points will be the tally for Clermont in second in this pool, and they will therefore claim one of the runners-up spots. The only potential upset could come from Exeter, which would be a huge result for Ulster.
Pool 3:
Pool 2 is a little trickier given that the games in Round 5 on Sunday have yet to be played. Northampton and Glasgow on Sunday will be a key fixture, and the winner of that will end up finishing second in the pool.
Should Northampton get the victory at home, they will travel to Scarlets in search of a bonus point and probably get it. Their 19 points would be good enough to qualify in that case ahead of Ulster. Should Glasgow claim victory, which is possible given their talent- unlikely given their form, then they will have to host Racing in the final weekend to deny Ulster.
Essentially, Ulster and Ireland fans want Glasgow to do their Pro 12 rivals a favour on Sunday.
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Pool 4:
Munster's redemption victory over Stade Francais means a whole lot more to Ulster than it does to Munster. Had Stade won, Ulster would have almost certainly been out of the tournament already. A final round game between Leicester and Stade will be what decides the final runners up spot. Given Stade's healthy try scoring tally, a victory over Leicester in Paris would be enough for Stade to overtake Ulster.
Given the dire effort from Stade's defense in Thomond Park that doesn't seem likely. I'm backing Leicester to do Ulster a favour and take care of Stade Francais.
Pool 5:
Leinster's impressive victory and reversal in their fortunes recently shouldn't go unnoticed, and many in Irish rugby will be thankful for it. It may turn out that Ulster could be the biggest beneficiary of Leinster's showings.
The big game to watch for is Sunday's Round 5 clash when Toulon host Wasps. Wasps already shocked Toulon in this tournament, and Ulster could really use another one. Toulon's new signings haven't been totally dominant, and it is possible.
If Wasps win, then Ulster will go into the last weekend relying on just one other result - (Leicester to beat Stade Francais) once they take care of Oyonnax. If Toulon win, then Ulster will need another favour - this time from Leinster. If Leinster can beat Wasps next weekend in Coventry then Ulster are in with a big chance.
