Having toasted their European renaissance in recent weeks, culminating in the Thomond Park victory over Racing that guaranteed another French visit in the Champions Cup quarter-final, Munster fans have been confront to ponder the costs of victory in the following days.
Their form has led to their strongest international representation in years: 13 Munster players were included in Joe Schmidt's 40-man Irish squad this week, which will mean plenty of tired legs in the quarter-final against Toulouse, which is just a fortnight after the end of the Six Nations.
Most concerning for Munster fans, however, have been rumours emanating from Rassie Erasmus' homeland. Media reports in South Africa in recent days have linked Erasmus with the Springbok job, with the incumbent Allister Coetzee largely doomed following a hideous 2016. Coetzee is widely expected to be sacked by the South African Rugby Union following a year which saw eight defeats in 12 tests, losses which plunged new depths: a record home defeat to New Zealand (57-15) preceded a first ever defeat to Italy.
Erasmus' lawyer -his namesake, Frikkie - denied these reports, saying that there has been no approach from the SARU. But how likely is Rassie Erasmus to leave Munster?
We spoke to respected South African journalist Craig Ray to gauge the likelihood of Erasmus leaving Munster for a return home.
It is unsurprising that the words 'Erasmus' and 'Springboks' are in the same headlines in South Africa: many believe he should have had the job ahead of Coetzee in the first place.
Erasmus had been embedded within the SARU for years: serving as a technical adviser with the World Cup squads of 2007 and 2011 before progressing to the role of General Manager of High Performance in 2012. He was the favourite to succeed Heyneke Meyer in 2015. Erasmus' track record had him at the head of a shortlist of three, which was discussed by the SARU's rugby committee. This committee then removed his name, owing to the intervention of politics, as Ray elucidates:
Politics is quite high on agenda in South Africa. There are tranformation considerations, and after the failure of Heyneke Meyer, Coetzee had a good record as the Stormers coach.
But one of the main criteria was to look at transformation, and the rugby committee probably thought Coetzee, as a coloured guy, was a good fit at this stage in South Africa's history, rather than another White Afrikaan in Rassie Erasmus. He had a good track record, so it wasn't a difficult pitch. He had taken the Stormers to the semi-finals and the final of Super Rugby twice so he didn't come without a decent CV. It was a very political move to jump him at the top of the queue.
Transformation is the process whereby sporting bodies in South Africa must incorporate more athletes of colour, and should at least half of the 2019 World Cup squad not consist of non-white players, the South African government will withdraw support of the 2023 World Cup bid.
The employment of Coetzee is a difficult political line for the SARU to tread, and it is part of the reason he has yet to be dismissed. While there have been some reports claiming that Coetzee may yet be retained, there are more pressing political motives for South Africa's rugby committee to dismiss him: namely their own position. With Erasmus succeeding at Munster and Coetzee's stewardship increasingly just the passage from one humbling to another, Ray believes they can't justify Coetzee's position, and by extension, their own.
If they retain Coetzee, which is possible, and things don't go well in 2017, which they won't if Coetzee is retained, that feeling and that resentment will keep building even more.
That's why I think the South African rugby bosses won't stick with Coetzee and 2017 is a disaster, they will have to carry the can. They can excuse it for one year, and say 'well we gave the guy a go, he had a good track record in Super Rugby and it didn't work out'. But if you back him for one more year, and it's another mess, there's nowhere for the administrators to hide, either.
There's an interesting intertwining plot line behind the track record that put Coetzee in the frame for the job in the first place. Coetzee enjoyed relative success at the Stormers: twice taking them to the semi-finals of Super Rugby. In all he won 61 of his 93 games in charge of the Stormers, but this was success based on defence. Exactly how much of this was down to him, however, is up for debate. His predecessor was one Rassie Erasmus, who left much of his backroom staff behind him when Coetzee took over. This included the current Munster defence coach, Jacques Nienaber.
When Erasmus left the Stormers in 2010, Nienaber stayed at the Stormers and worked with Coetzee. For 2010, 2011, 2012 and maybe even 2013, the Stormers had the best defence in Super Rugby. They were watertight, and didn't play the most open rugby.
One season, they conceded 19 tries in a 16-match season in Super Rugby, which is almost unheard of in a competition in which there are regularly six tries per game. So Nienaber was brilliant, but he and Coetzee had a fall-out.
Again, this draws a picture. Retrospectively, looking back at Coetzee, perhaps he wasn't the mastermind behind the Stormers' success that the likes of Nienaber and the legacy Erasmus left behind, were.
Coetzee and Nienaber fell out because Coetee fell Nienaber was too influential in the Stormers' set-up. It was all about defence, and he was having a bigger voice in that, so I think Coetzee felt a bit threatened by him, so got rid of him. When Coetzee took charge of the Springboks, although Nienaber worked on the defence in those first three tests against Ireland, it was never going to be a long-term thing. They were forced upon each other by circumstance rather than design.
Timing may be less of an issue for Erasmus than expected. He had prepared in great detail to succeed Heyneke Meyer, before being overlooked, and Ray believes it would be achievable for Erasmus to see out the season with Munster before taking over ahead of the Springboks next game, which comes in June.
What is true is that Erasmus has done so much work planning for the Springbok job, he did it all in 2016, Erasmus has the Springbook playbook in place all ready, meaning he would only have to dust it off and get back up to speed pretty quickly. One of the options is to see the season out with Munster, and pick up the reins with the Springboks in late May having done the work remotely, and had some of the current coaching set-up take charge of training camps. That's quite doable. Not ideal, but a possibility.
But history may count in Munster's favour, according to Ray:
He was clearly the frontrunner last year, when they gave it Allister, and that was part of the reason he left, through a bit of disillusionment. He was all set to take it, and then he was overlooked. He had done all of the planning, down to the most minute detail, and was at the top of a shortlist of three. But SARU have this rugby committee, consisting of among others, Kevin de Klerk, president of the Lions, and James Stofberg, and they just took his his name off the list and put Allister Coetzee at the top of the queue.
When that happened, Erasmus lost all patience with South African rugby and in March of last year he started looking around, and found Munster. I find it difficult he would come back too easily, particularly given what happened last year.
There are other, more practical issues which may keep Erasmus at Munster: money. Should he be offered any job, Erasmus will almost certainly insist that he take Nienaber with him, meaning the SARU would have to pay the rest of Coetzee's contract, pay Munster to release Erasmus and Nienaber, and then pay them a salary. It was rumoured that the broadcaster SuperSport would help fund such a move, although this has since been denied.
Nor is Erasmus the only man in the running: Dave Rennie, the head coach of the Chiefs, is another name which has been floated in recent days.
What is true is that Erasmus has so far denied only an approach from South Africa, and while there are many reasosn as to why he may return home, there are plenty reasons to keep him Limerick for the foreseeable future, too.
See Also: Confirmed: JJ Hanrahan Is Coming Back To Munster, Plus Two More Signings Announced
