Joe Schmidt and Irish rugby fans may be bullish after seeing France's abject performance against Italy to raise the curtain on the 2016 Six Nations but there can be no arrogance. Historically, Paris has been a graveyard for Ireland rugby teams. 2010. 2006. 2002. 1996. I could keep going.
Something malignant is eating at the soul of the French rugby team but history cannot inspire Joe Schmidt this weekend. One stat proves just how monumental the challenge is for Ireland on Saturday. Ireland have won not twice in a row against France on away trips to Paris since the 1927 and 1928 Five Nations, when they beat France 8-3 and 6-0 in two away fixtures. That's 87 years, basically.
Perhaps Ireland's luck is changing against France. Les Bleus have not beaten Ireland in a test match since the 2011 Six Nations. Draws in the 2012 and 2013 Six Nations have been followed up by wins versus France in Ireland's two consecutive Six Nations-winning campaigns. Then, of course, came the emotional green tidal wave that consumed France in the second half of the World Cup game in Cardiff last October. But Irish team are frequently overwhelmed in Paris. Over the years, wins in France were followed by long droughts. Paul O'Connell only won once in Paris; O'Driscoll twice. 28 years separated Ireland's win in the BOD hattrick game in Stade de France and the win in the 14-9 in Colombes in '72.
It's only four months since Ireland beat France but much has changed for Ireland. There are seven changes to the Ireland team from that Sunday afternoon in Cardiff. Gone are O'Connell, O'Mahony, Bowe, Healy and Ross, to name five. For this game, Schmidt has gone for many of his old guard: the Kearney's, Payne at 13. Trimble was immense in Paris two years ago but a front 5 that was mostly overwhelmed against Wales in the scrum is unchanged. Is there enough dynamism in the Ireland team to reverse history's fate? We've seen this go wrong before.
