The Irish provinces are set to find out their fate for the upcoming European season today after lunchtime. The new meritocracy-based European 'elite' competition means that there more competition in the pool stages, and that securing a positive draw is vital.
Here are the best and worst case scenarios for the Irish provinces, with the teams that you want to avoid or teams that you'd want to draw in each tier. Before the main draw, there is a complicated prelimary draw to see who joins Saracens, Glasgow, and Stade Francais in the top tier of seeds.
Munster
Munster's best and worst case scenario is a complicated by the fact that they await a prelimary draw to see if they are first or second seeds. It's not certain that getting drawn as first seeds would be most preferable as there would be the potential for drawing Toulon or Clermont Auvergne.
Whether they get drawn as first or second seeds, the most favourable draw would see them pitted against one of the weaker French teams - either Top 14 champions Stade Francais (if second seeds), or Toulouse (if first seeds which also needs Clermont Auvergne to be second seeds - very complicated). The best case scenario would also see Munster drawn against Exeter and Treviso.
Worst case scenario would see Munster drawn against either of the finalists from last year's Champions Cup in Toulon or Clermont, then with Leicester and Scarlets.
Leinster
Leinster might secretly be hoping that Munster are drawn as first seeds as that would significantly reduce the chances for them to draw Toulon. The country rules dictate that no two teams from the same country can be drawn together. This means that if Munster are drawn as second seeds - the available teams that Leinster could draw in the second tier of teams are reduced to Northampton, Ospreys and Toulon - a 1/3 chance, while if Munster are first seeds ( and Ulster third seeds as a result), Leinster's chances of drawing Toulon reduce to 1/5.
Ideally, they would like to get Stade Francais in the first pool to avoid that option taking place, leaving them with the Ospreys and one of France's newcomers to the competition. If things go very bad for Leinster they could end up with a group like Saracens/Bath, Toulon/Clermont, and Scarlets or Glasgow, Toulon/Clermont, and Wasps, or Clermont, Northampton, and Scarlets.
Ulster
Even though Ulster still don't know what seeds they are yet, but that doesn't take away from what teams they want to draw. Stade Francais are the clear favourite that teams want to draw from the top seeds - not only because they are the weakest team, but also because it stops that team from also playing Toulon and Clermont.
If the worst happens, they are also looking at a scenario as bleak as the potential draw outlined for Leinster.
Connacht
Connacht have their own draw, and are guaranteed to be top seeds in the Challenge Cup draw that precedes the Champions Cup draw. Looking at the French teams indifferent attitude to the Challenge Cup, drawing any French team wouldn't be the worst result for the Westerners, but they will hope to renew their already established relationship with Russian side Enisey-STM who have travelled to Galway each year for the last number of years to play Connacht Eagles.
It's the first time that the Russian side have qualified for the Challenge Cup, although the travel and trip to Siberia might not be that desirable.
Dragons and Zebre would be attractive second and third seeds to draw, while the likes of Harlequins, Cardiff and Worcester would be the teams to avoid.
Teams To Avoid
1st Seeds: Clermont Auvergne, Bath, Saracens, Glasgow
2nd Seeds: Toulon, Clermont Auvergne, Bath, Northampton
3rd Seeds: Leicester
4th Seeds: Scarlets, Wasps
Teams To Draw
1st Seeds: Stade Francais
2nd Seeds : Ospreys, Toulouse
3rd Seeds: Exeter, Toulouse
4th Seeds: Treviso, Oyonnax, Bordeaux
