Can England Still Qualify For The World Cup Quarter-Finals?
England's loss to Wales last weekend has opened up the possibility that they could become the first tournament hosts of the Rugby World Cup not to reach the quarter-finals. The hosts lie in third place behind both Australia and Wales, with two games remaining. But can England still qualify?
Yes, yes they can. England can still qualify, and here's what needs to happen for them ahead of their huge game against Australia this Saturday. England finish their tournament against minnows Uruguay the following week.
How England can still qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals?
If England Lose v Australia
If they lose to Australia on Saturday, can England still qualify?
No. They are 100% out of the tournament, and will finish third. The consolation of not having to qualify for 2019's tournament won't cheer them up too much, and Australia go forward to their final game over Wales to decide who tops the pool.
If England Draw v Australia
If they draw with Australia, can England still qualify?
Yes. There is a scenario that can play out where England can draw without a try bonus point against Australia and still make it through. It would see Wales lead the pool with 13 points, Australia on 11, and England on eight points. Wales would then be qualified for the quarterfinals, because England can't overtake them due to their head to head superiority.
England would need Wales to beat Australia in the final pool game, and then the hosts need to beat Uruguay.
There is a highly unlikely scenario here, where Australia could take three points against England (a draw and a try bonus point), and two points in a loss against Wales (a losing and try bonus point) and have more points than England would (14 - 13).
That's how England can still qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals with a draw.
If England Draw with a bonus point v Australia
Four tries in a draw with Australia opens up a new possibility for England. It means that Wales can be overtaken, if they lose with no bonus point against Australia.
All that would need to happen then is that England get a four try bonus point win over Uruguay, which seems highly likely.
England will know exactly what needs to happen by the time they kick off against Uruguay (8pm on Saturday 10th of October), after the Australia v Wales game (4.45pm on the same day).
This is how England can still qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals with a draw and a bonus point.
If England Win v Australia
If they beat Australia on Saturday, can England still qualify?
All the permutations can be thrown out the window should England beat Australia on Saturday. If we already assume that England have beaten Uruguay comfortably, then that would secure England a spot in the quarterfinals.
That leaves the Wales and Australia game as a winner takes all match that would decide who goes home, who wins the pool, and who comes second.
That's how England can still qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals with a win.
