Ahead of another intense weekend in the Heineken Cup, our Rugby Nerds parse the big issues for the Irish provinces ahead of the critical penultimate weekend in the group stages.
Munster fan Ronan Murphy reflects on Sunday's crunch match at the Murrayfield mausoleum.
“It’s our season. It’s everything, 80 minutes of rugby to have the chance to have 80 minutes more. Otherwise it’s over."
-Donnacha O'Callaghan
Here we go again. It's another backs-to-the-wall, season defining few weeks for Munster. They have their destiny in their hands but can the new generation of Munster keep it in their grasp. Selections and injuries notwithstanding, last Saturdays home loss to Cardiff was Munster's worst performance of the season. It was aimless, error-strewn stuff; when they weren't shovelling it wide and running into touch they were kicking the ball away without competing. Munster are going to need to up their intensity and accuracy hugely to get what they need in Scotland. Here are some of the important factors.
THE CAVALRY: Munster do have quite a lot of quality to bring in; Murray, Zebo, O'Mahony, O'Callaghan, Botha, Varley.
THE OPPOSITION: Edinburgh have been pretty hopeless this season, winning a grand total of 4 games in the PRO12 and not picking up a single Pool point or scoring a try in the HCup. Leinster tore through them for fun last Friday. Plus, Munster have already won in Murrayfield this season.
THE OUTHALF: It might seem like sacrilege for a Munster fan to doubt ROG but the question remains whether he is the right man to be the pivot for the evolving Munster gameplan. Standing way behind his pack and without any running threat, defenders can effectively ignore him and drift out, cutting off space for the backs. With Munster in need of tries it may be that the strength and pace of Ian Keatley would be more effective against the soft centred Edinburgh. But then again who's betting against ROG?
CONFIDENCE: It remains to be seen if there will be a knock-on effect of the limp loss to Cardiff. The injection of a bunch of internationals into the team should add a spark in quality and leadership. Hopefully losing will be motivating and not debilitating.
ATMOSPHERE: Or total lack thereof. There are no two factors more detrimental to a match atmosphere than a Sunday 12.45 kickoff and Edinburgh playing in Murrayfield. Murrayfield has a capacity in the 60,ooo's and Edinburgh get an average crowd of about 4,000 (to put that in perspective, there was almost 9,000 in Musgrave on Saturday). No need to ask for silence for the kickers!
It's difficult to see anything but a Munster win (if they can't beat this rabble, their season deserves to be over) but Munster need to get the 4 try Bonus Point to keep control of their HCup season. They are eminently capable of doing it but the questions is whether last week was a blip or something bigger. Hopefully, it will be just the kick in the pants they need.
Ulster fan Paddy Logan looks ahead to Glasgow's visit to Ravers
Ulster will be looking for a bonus point victory against Glasgow on Friday night to ease the nerves ahead of their trip to Stade Pierre-Antoine for the potential pool decider the following week against Castres. However, despite what their less than meagre haul of 2 points from the first 4 rounds, Glasgow are unlikely to role over and have their tummies tickled.
In fact, having won the back to back festive derbies against Edinburgh, and brought in the New Year with an impressive 41-7 victory over Treviso, Glasgow now sit second in the RDP12 and will travel to Ravenhill in high spirits. Whilst some may scoff at victories over Edinburgh and Treviso, Glasgow are no mugs and are fully deserving of their league standing. Indeed, on the 2 occasions these sides have met so far this season, Ulster have had to work very hard to secure a victory. The Scottish outfit have a strong pack, led by the excellent Al Kellock, and will provide the outstanding trio of Court, Best and Afoa with their sternest test since the Saints conducted their pre-Xmas smash and grab.
Glasgow also have some quality behind the scrum, with all-international half-backs in Pyrgos and Jackson, with another, Duncan Weir, likely to feature in the latter stages off the bench. In Graeme Morrison and Stuart Hogg, they have a pair of very capable strike runners so the Ulstermen will have to defend at their usual high standard to repel them.
Ulster have named a strong preliminary squad, but will definitely be without Luke Marshall, who broke his finger during Ulster’s dismantling of the Scarlets. This is tragic news for the young man who was on the verge of an Ireland cap, but his time will come. Of course, Ulster can call on the not inconsiderable talents of Paddy Wallace, who has been enjoying an excellent season and will resume his partnership with Darren Cave, who was in excellent form last Friday. Adam D’Arcy, who looked very sharp in the last 3 matches, is out with a broken ankle, and his place has been taken by Chris Cochrane, whom Ulster registered yesterday, vice Chris Farrell who is still recovering from cruciate damage.
Although Dan Tuohy is included in the preliminary squad, the recurrence of his calf strain means that he is unlikely to feature, which is a blow given the continued absence of Johann Muller. Thankfully, Anscombe has plenty of options. Stevenson will start in the second row and could be joined by Neil McComb who is having an excellent season. However, I think he will go with Henderson in the second-row with Williams or Diack at 6. Given his prowess at the lineout, I think the South African will get the nod, which leaves Williams or Wilson at 8. The Old Instonian and former Saint, is uber-dependable and deserved to start both matches of the double-header. However, whilst the Kiwi wrecking-ball can be a bit loose, I can’t see how Anscombe can not select him given his single-handed demolition of the Scarlets at the start of the second-half last week.
IMy gut-feeling is that it will be tight and that although I expect Ulster to win, the bonus point might just be beyond them. But what I really want, is a 5-pointer, and a Northampton bonus-less win at Franklin Gardens, then we can relax and enjoy the trip to the south of France.
SUFTUM.
Connacht fan Gavin Grace reflects on Connacht's daunting challenge at the Stoop tomorrow
Given the chance, I'd never watch another rugby match over my own province.
That said, I'm left with the nagging feeling that the most important games for Connacht in the Heineken Cup this weekend are being held at the RDS, Ravenhill and Murrayfield rather than The Stoop. Our chances of progression are gone, and with the Pro-12 standings putting the Westerners firmly on course for yet another 'fourth of the Irish' finish, returning to the top competition next season will once more require Irish success in May, and indeed this weekend. So with genuine sincerity, I wish our brethren all the very best in the coming ten days.
Focussing solely on our own game this weekend, it should have all the makings of a blow-out. The home team is running away with the group, but still needs a strong performance to get a home Quarter-Final. The visitors' campaign is pretty much over too. One would rush to the bookies to predict a route, except for one factor - it's Connacht.
This is the team that beat Harlequins in just 12 months ago, when nothing but pride was on the line. It's the same team that gave the mighty Toulouse a battle in France when no one expected anything. There is a pride under Eric Elwood that means the Bradley-esque days of major ass-kickings thankfully seem to be no more. I hope I'm not tempting fate, but Connacht have always been competitive in the Heineken Cup and I do expect that to continue tomorrow. There's also the small matter a new boss to please wth Pat Lam's appointment reportedly days from being confirmed.
That said, we're still major outsiders. Harlequins were awesome on their visit to the Sportsground, and I'd be surprised if they were not to return to Ireland for the final later this year. Their forwards are both powerful and clinical, and against Connacht in October, this dominance allowed their back-line use quick ball to devastating effect. That said ,looking back on that 30-22 loss, I'm reminded of how close the game was but for a ten minute spell either side of half-time when Danny Care led the Londoners to 15 quick fire points. Without those...who knows where we would be this weekend?
Connacht's injury list is will not make matters an easier, and George Naoupu, Dan Parks and Danie Poolman are massive losses. Given the injuuies, Connacht's strategy should be focussed on containing their opponents, and maximising chances if and when they appear. Don't expect any deviations from this strategy - it would be hard to surprise a team you're playing for the fifth time in 15 months
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I don't expect Connacht to win at all tomorrow. Denying 'Quins four tries, or indeed keeping them within seven points would both be satisfactory. I do however expect a keenly fought game - that's the Connacht way.
