We're 30 hours out from Ireland vs the Springboks. We know about the decimated line-up, we know about the purging of Irish leadership via injury, we know about the beastliness of South Africa. But hey, it's an 80 minute game of Test Rugby. Anything can happen. With that in mind, we asked our Rugby Nerds two questions: Ireland will win if... and South Africa will win if.... Their answers were pretty illuminating.
Ronan Murphy, Munster fan:
Ireland will win if... they keep their discipline. The Springboks are monstrous men (check out Eben Etzebeth who's only 21!) who will be out to physically dominate Ireland. They'll be happy to kick the ball to Ireland, apply pressure and force penalties which they will take all day, with Lambie or Pienaar slotting the points. It will require huge aggression and a mammoth physical effort to repel the Boks, cutting them down early to prevent them building up steam and rampaging forward. Keeping discipline at the breakdown and set-pieces will be a big part of that. When Ireland have the ball; they can't try to go through the mountain, they have to go around it. Ireland are starting with a very mobile pack and some exciting strike runners in the backline. Getting continuity and phases and dragging South Africa around the pitch will create the opportunities to score tries.
South Africa will win if...they beat Ireland up. It's not fancy or complex but packs still win games. While they don't lack for skill, powerful packs and metronomic kicking are still the hallmarks of South African rugby. The selection of Pat Lambie over Mornye Steyn at 10 suggest a slightly different emphasis but Plan A will still be to throw Ireland around like rag-dolls. Their form outside Africa hasn't been good in 2012 (they didn't win any away games in the Rugby Championship) but they'll be confident taking on an injury-depleted Ireland.
P.S. As if making your Test debut wasn't stressful enough, Richardt Strauss has not only to contend with facing his own compatriots but his own family. Richardt will literally be going head-to-head with his cousin Adrian, who also starts at hooker on Saturday evening.
Paddy Logan, Ulster Fan
Ireland Will Win If:
- We match them in the scrum. The Saffa scrum is excellent but not to be feared by this Irish pack. Healy, Strauss and Ross have dealt with heftier opponents so should be able to cope.
- The lineout goes well. O’Connell will be missed but Ireland have plenty of options with McCarthy, Ryan, O’Mahony and Heaslip all quality jumpers. And when Henderson comes on he’s more than handy too.
- We don’t play too much rugby in our half. Much though I love the Leinster way, we don’t want do be doing loop, miss-ones in our own 22. The Boks will kick goals all day if we let them. Hopefully Murray learnt his lesson in Stade de France where Zebo had a ringside seat. Jonny needs a good game kicking out of hand – he usually does.
- Pienaar kicks like he did at Rodney Parade 2 weeks ago.
- Ireland press in defence as they did against Australia and not back off as they did against Wales in February. Line speed will be critical as will aggression and accuracy at ruck time. It’s trite to say the Saffa pack are very physical but they are, and Etzebeth in particular is a monster so the Irish pack will need to turn the intensity up to 11.
- Wayne Barnes allows us to tackle.
- Jean de Villiers wears a red shirt.
South Africa will win if:
- Conventional wisdom that you can’t manufacture an international class full-back overnight proves to be true. Kidney has gone for Zebo despite the fact that Rob Penney thinks Jones, Hurley and Keatley (how unlucky is he not to be in the squad?) are all better options – and Munster are not exactly short of wingers. That said, Zebo has the skills to pull it off. Good luck to him.
- Mike Ross gets injured early doors and Michael Bent turns out to be the rugby equivalent of Ali Dia. Yes he’s played ITM and Super Rugby, but 5 appearances off the bench for the Hurricanes is unlikely to strike the fear of god into the Beast. The papers won’t be pretty if the Irish scrum gets a ‘beasting’.
- Pienaar brings his Thomond Park kicking game.
- The Irish lineout mis-fires. Strauss’s darts are fine but he has his moments. Let’s hope it’s double top and not bed and breakfast
- Conor Murray goes for a wander before passing. Irish rugby’s biggest cliché is that Jonny Sexton needs quick ball to play his best. Murray needs to be much sharper otherwise this Paul Marshall fan might just explode.
Gavin Grace, Connacht fan
Ireland Can Win If...
Injuries, lads. What a pain.
Even though Ireland are about to take on the world's third-ranked side without four first choice forwards and arguably our two most influential backs, there is cause for optimism, if we choose to look at the match that way. This is a South Africa team who didn't win any of their Rugby Championship games away from home, and were largely unimpressive in last year's World Cup. Their players are also coming off the back of their longest ever season, with eight of the Springboks playing in the bruising Currie Cup Final two weeks ago. That's before you mention their own injury worries.
South Africa, though, can't simply be dismissed as a tired team there for the taking, but it is a weakness Ireland needs to exploit through a tight, controlled, disciplined game-plan. Healy, Heaslip, McCarthy, O'Mahony and Henry will all need to carry the ball in the tight for hard yards, and often - that's why I'd like to have seen Kevin McLoughin named as a starter. Sexton has to kick smartly, and Gordon D'Arcy in particular, but also Keith Earls, needs to ship a big workload. Choosing Zebo at full-back is the least worst option, but he does pose an attacking threat and his finishing ability can be exploited when the opportunity arises - the entire backline needs to be prepared for the fact that this is unlikely to happen often, though, so Ireland need to be clinical.
Defensively, discipline will need to be the order of the day. Mistakes will be costly if Ruan Pienaar and Pat Lambie are handed free shots at goal. A stout defence breeds doubt in its opponent - the tempo here is crucial.
The other way Ireland's freshness advantage can be exploited is through our bench. O'Gara, Reddan, Cronin and Henderson in particular can all make a difference in the last twenty minutes of a game, especially if Ireland hold the lead. Using the right players, at the right time (something Kidney has rarely done) could make the difference between winning and losing a close contest.
South Africa Will Win If...
If I'm attacking this Ireland team, I'm not scared scare me. I picture the likes of de Villiers, Pieterson, Hougaard, Etzebeth and others carrying the ball, recycling phases and finding mismatches against an Ireland team bereft of leaders and renowned tacklers. If Earls, or Trimble, Zebo or a mismatched forward are found wanting, even one time in ten, then that could give the Springboks the break they need. And with Pienaar at scrum-half, I'm confident the South Africans will find and exploit such a mismatch, if it is there.
Ultimately, I think an Ireland team without six starters doesn't beat a southern hemisphere team, even at home, and even at the end of their season. And if over 35 points are scored, I give us even less of a chance.
I hope my pessimism is wrong.
Andy McGeady, Leinster fan
Ireland will win if...
1. Cian Healy and Mike Ross stay on the field together for at least 70 minutes. The thought of Dave Kilcoyne and Michael Bent spending any significant time together on the field against Mwatarira and du Plessis is not a pleasant one.
2. The Irish try to play a wide, expansive game. The selection of Peter O'Mahony alongside Chris Henry and Jamie Heaslip perhaps hints that this Irish team will try to do this, O'Mahony's relatively poor hands notwithstanding. Add the selection of Earls at 13 and the daring selection of Zebo at full back and this is a team built to move the ball around and keep it away from the South African pack. All of which goes to say that the selection of Conor Murray makes absolutely no sense.
3. Ruan Pienaar has a bad day. Ok, now I'm reaching. Last season Pienaar's form was imperious, strolling around with a rakish ease seemingly playing the game at a different pace than everybody else on the field. Goals were kicked for fun as long as the penalty was given in the same postcode. He doesn't really do "bad days", but since this season he's had a couple of off days with the boot it's a straw that must be clung to.
4. Iain Henderson comes on and proves to be Stephen Ferris MkII. Combined with Sean O'Brien. And Anthony Foley.
5. Wayne Barnes has a very strict day and Eben Ezebeth does something particularly silly. Preferably early. Like at the kick off.
South Africa will win if...
1. Ireland try to match the Springboks with raw power. It won't work.
2. Patrick Lambie leaves Pienaar be the on-field general rather than trying to be "THE new Springbok 10". Lambie is tremendously talented but this is a big test. Pienaar needs to keep things tight, allowing his forwards to rumble forwards and then unleashing his inexperienced (at the position) out half. If SA try to force the game wide this would actually play into Ireland's hands.
3. They target Andrew Trimble, Keith Earls and Simon Zebo relentlessly. Trimble's turning and catching has never been a strong point; Earls' defensive positioning in the centre has been found wanting in the past; Simon Zebo has been named at 15 where he certainly doesn't have the kind of regular experience one would prefer to see in a test match.
4. Conor Murray plays more than 50 minutes. On form, Conor Murray is the fourth best Irish scrum half right now. His delivery is not international class and on a day when Ireland will need to keep the ball away from tightly-knit groups of large South African men we unfortunately have a scrum half with that very aspect as his weak point.
5. Jonathan Sexton gets injured early. To many casual observers the Sexton vs. O'Gara battle is the very same that ROG faced years before with David Humphreys. To take this simplistic view ignores Sexton's terrific defensive play; so strong is he in this department that Declan Kidney could very easily name him at 12 in a big game and Ireland wouldn't lose an inch. O'Gara, never a strong defender, would be ruthlessly targeted by South Africa and, with Earls in the 13 channel, would leave the Irish midfield defence in a fatally weakened state.
