One of the biggest rugby weekends of the year is upon us, and beautifully the weather acting is up. With so much at stake for Leinster, Munster and Ulster this weekend, our Rugby Nerds hashed out their expectations for the weekend's Heineken Cup action.
Andy McGeady has extensively broken down all of the weekend's permutations on his website. Here's a condensed version of what lies ahead for for Leinster & Munster heading into the weekend
Pool 1 Final Fixtures: Sunday 12:45pm
- Saracens vs. Edinburgh
- Munster vs. Racing Metro
Permutations
Both Munster and Saracens can theoretically win the group but with Saracens at home to awful Edinburgh, it’s all about Munster and Racing duelling for the runner-up slot.
If Munster get a bonus point win (20pts) they’ll need Leinster not to score one more try than them, Toulouse not to be a runner up on 20 points and Montpellier to get nothing from Toulon.
If Munster win but fail to get a bonus point (19pts) they’ll be dependent on at least four of the following occurring:
- Montpellier coming out of the Toulon match without a single point
- Leinster not achieving a bonus point win in Exeter
- Toulouse not getting any points from their match with Leicester.
- Biarritz not getting a bonus point win
- Northampton not getting a bonus point win and overtaking a three try scoring advantage
If Munster lose but get two losing bonus points (17pts) while Racing fail to get a winning bonus point or get a winning bonus point and don’t score at least two tries more than Munster, add the following to the above list:
- Biarritz not winning
- Castres not winning with a bonus point
Pool 5: Final Fixtures: Saturday 6pm
- Scarlets vs. Clermont
- Exeter vs. Leinster
Permutations: Clermont get a home quarter final with a point from their match with Scarlets; Leinster need to win and are dependant on other results.
If Leinster win and get a bonus point (20pts) they need two of the following to happen:
- Montpellier to get less than two points from their match with Toulon
- Munster to fail to get a winning bonus point or get winning bonus point while scoring two fewer tries than Leinster
- Either Toulouse to beat Leicester or lose without getting two bonus points (if the latter occurs, Leinster would need to have scored 11 tries against Exeter).
If Leinster win and fail to get a bonus point (19pts), add the following to the above:
- Munster not to win while scoring at least as many tries as Leinster
- Biarritz not to get a bonus point win against Harlequins (already assured of a home QF)
- Northampton not to get a bonus point win against Glasgow while scoring at least three more tries than Leinster.
Ronan Murphy explains how a Munster-less ROG will approach their match with Racing.
All Munster fans will have been keeping a close eye on France this week, with the provinces quarter-final chances wrapped up in the attitude of three Gallic clubs: Toulon, Montpelier and Racing. Without the (highly unlikely) event of Edinburgh beating Saracens, Munster are chasing one of the two available best runners-up spots and will be watching very closely to see how Saturdays games pan out.
First, Munster (and Leinster) will want the star-studded Toulon to show up and beat Montpelier, thus denying Montpelier a shot at qualification. Toulon have qualified with a small 'q' but haven't guaranteed topping their Pool or a home QF. They should be fairly motivated to win that game and have named an almost full strength squad for it. Should Montpelier win then Munster's goal will be to match Leinster for match points and tries. What looked like a crap fixture list (playing the final two matches at 12:45 on Sundays) has worked out in Munster's favour as they'll know what should get them through. (The Leicester-Toulouse game could have a bearing on Sunday evening but Toulouse scoring 4 tries and only getting a losing bonus point seems unlikely).
In any event Munster will need a bonus point win against Racing Metro. Metro are effectively eliminated from the competition and will send a weakened side to Limerick along with their notable suspensions. Munster are undefeated in Thomond Park this season (the two home loses both came in Cork) and have managed 20 tries in those 7 games (4 BPs). Only Saracens have kept them tryless on home soil this term. If Racing are coming to have their bellies tickled Munster have shown the capabilities this season to roll them over.
ROG's petulant and frustrated kick out in Scotland means that Ian Keatley gets to start the game (which there has been an increasing clamour for recently). Keatley has looked better suited to Penney's game-plan and now he'll get his chance in a do-or-die game. If Racing are going leave gaps or fall off tackles, Keatley has the running and offloading game that can exploit them. With Earls and Zebo looking sharp last week and an increasing willingness to send James Downey crashing up the middle, Munster have the firepower to test the appetite of the French. Dave Kilcoyne and Peter O'Mahony carried well against Edinburgh and Munster will want to get Tommy O'Donnell into to space to let him use his pace.
However, confidence was an issue last week. An early poor lineout on the Edinburgh line seemed to dent the players and lead to a conservatism in the first half where kicks were taken when scrums or lineouts may have yielded more. Again, Keatley starting may be an advantage in this regard as he can play in a less structured, more 'heads-up' fashion.
Hopefully, the permutations won't require another 'Miracle Match' and a straightforward, 4 try win will be enough. Not much has been straightforward for Munster this season but for now the quarter-final dream lives on.
Paddy Logan asks just how costly was Pienaar’s miss against Northampton, and can do Ulster do what they've never done in France.
Just over a month ago at Ravenhill, Ulster trailed the Saints by 1 point with 3 minutes left on the clock. From the base of a scrum just inside our own half, wee Paul Marshall made one of his trademark breaks, fixed Ben Foden and gave a perfectly timed pass to Tommy Bowe that almost put the Monaghan star away, save for a near miraculous tackle from Jamie Elliott. In trying to regain his balance, Bowe wrecked his cruciate and with it his season but managed to off-load, but only as far as Foden. Roger Wilson was in like a flash and secured the penalty, just outside the 22 and 15 yards to the right of the sticks. Having had to stand and watch for what seemed an age as the medics prepared Tommy to be stretchered from the pitch, Pienaar, who seemed visibly shaken, pulled the kick wide of the left-hand upright. We all wondered just how costly that might be and now, after 3 days of endless number-crunching we know.
This week, all thoughts have been on the trip to Stade Pierre-Antoine and a victory against Castres to secure a precious home quarter-final at Ravenhill in the spring. Although, let’s not forget that halfway through the third quarter of last week’s match against Glasgow, Ulster led by a paltry 4 points, and with Iain Henderson off the pitch following a ridiculously harsh sin-binning by the decidedly ordinary Monsieur Gauzere, they were being crushed by the highly effective mauling of the Glasgow pack. Thankfully, the Ulstermen came through and well-taken tries by Jared Payne, despite his obvious groin problems, and the excellent Darren Cave, made the result look much easier than it really was. So much so that the Sky website, quite ludicrously, reported it as an easy victory.
Anyway, since then all the talk has been of Ulster having to break their duck on French soil, and win in Castres to secure their home QF. But will that be enough? Well, if you can spare the time – and I strongly recommend that you do – to look at Andy McGeady’s magnificent ‘'summary'’ of all the possible permutations for this coming weekend, you will see that Ulster lie fourth after Round 5 with 19 points and 12 tries. In third and second place are Clermont and Toulon with 19 and 23 tries respectively. So even if both sides should lose (look out for that second blue moon) Ulster will still be behind them if they don’t get the BP.
Just behind Ulster are Saracens on 18 points and 10 tries. Ulster play on Saturday at lunchtime whilst Saracens host the woeful Edinburgh at Vicarage Road the following day. So, if Ulster win, but fail to secure the bonus point, Mark McCall’s men will know that a bonus point win and 2 more tries than Ulster manage against Castres, should secure 4th place and a home QF - hardly a tough assignment having served them up a donut and 5 tries at Murrayfield. What is more, they’ll be buzzing after last week’s comeback against Jonny’s Parisian extravagant suitors and the coup of signing up England’s latest South Sea’s sensation, Billy Vunipola, from neighbours Wasps.
So the bad news is that Ulster probably need to go to France, where they have never won, and win with at least 4 tries whilst a dozen of their squad convalesce in Belfast. ‘So what?’ you might say. To win the competition we have to beat the best so we might as well do it in the quarters. Well, if we manage to finish 5th, we’ll probably play Saracens away at a venue tbc – possibly Wembley? - given the lack of capacity at their new Barnet Copthall home. Apart from the likelihood of some shocking piped chants over the tannoy, I can live with that and would look forward to the barking mad Stephen Jones tucking into a double helping of humble pie in the Sunday Times. Should Montpellier or Toulouse secure BP wins against Toulon or Leicester – less likely but not entirely out of the question - Ulster could finish 6th or 7th, despite a 4 point win, and be facing an away trip to the Stoop (mmm), Toulon (nice trip, very tough gig) or the Marcel Michelin (aaagh!!). Despite the fact that we should have Muller, Tuohy and Super Stevie back by then, I don’t fancy any of those and especially not a return to the scene of one of Nigel Owens’ most glaring errors when Nathan Hines converted from lock to tight-end to facilitate Clermont’s winner in last season’s round 6.
So that’s what is at stake. On a positive note, despite the lengthy injury list, Ulster travel to the Midi-Pyrénées with a strong looking squad. The scrum is still going well and Robbie Diack has been a good stand in on the blindside and an excellent source of quality lineout ball. Pienaar won’t be as poor as he was against Glasgow again and the backline looks like it should be close to full strength. Mike McComish may well be the only change to he match-day squad, taking Roger Wilson’s place on the bench as the former Saint steps up to replace Nick the Brick. Castres on the other hand, whilst mathematically still in it, are relying on a bonus point win and a set of results elsewhere that would be the equivalent of winning the accumulator, the Euromillions and being asked out for dinner by Heidi Klum, all on the same day. So will they, and their Ile-de-France bound coaches, be up for it? Let’s hope not.
It’s going to be really tough and if they get the 5 points it will be one of their best results ever. But I believe that this team can do it – and I really hope they do – because no matter how appealing the prospect of sipping pastisse en Avril in the south of France might ordinarily be, I’d rather be at Ravers.
SUFTUM
Gavin Grace reflects at what's at stake for Connacht during the last H-Cup match of the Elwood era.
There's not a huge amount at stake for Connacht, or indeed for Zebre, when the sides meet at the Sportsground tonight. It's both teams' last European outing of the season, and third and fourth places respectively have been sewn up in the group. And while Connacht and Connacht fans still hope to return to the Heineken Cup next season - sure after two years we're well used to it now - we also realise that the Rabo-Pro 12 standings as they are mean we're relying on Munster, Leinster or Ulster to lift the Heineken/Amlin titles in May.
On the other hand however, this match does mark the beginning of a new era. Over 23 years after his Connacht debut, fans and players alike are preparing for life without Eric Elwood, and life under new coach Pat Lam. The more I think about it, the more I like the choice of the Samoan - the Sportsground has become home to an exciting Southern Hemisphere-esque style of rugby, and Lam's international reputation should help with the recruitment of players. Also, the decision to announce his appointment now means in effect that Connacht are already preparing for next season.
Everyone associated with the club wants to give Elwood a good send-off, not least (we assume) the players who have worked with and under him for so long. He leaves Connacht in perhaps its healthiest state ever. Attendances have never been higher, and the club has claimed the scalps of two European giants in Europe's biggest competition in 2012, as well as both Heineken Cup finalists. The clash with Zebre gives us a chance to underline this improvement. Last season, Connacht won one game in the Heineken Cup, this year it can become three.
On paper, Connacht should beat a team who have yet to win a game either in league or cup. Dan Parks' return to the Number 10 jersey is welcome, but the squad remains threadbare - Monday's training session was cancelled when a total of 24 players were receiving treatment. Dave McSharry and Robbie Henshaw will look to shine in the aftermath of their call-up to the Ireland squad, and in the front row look for a big game from Brett Wilkinson who has been considered by Declan Kidney in the not-too-distant past, only to be effectively usurped by the now injured Denis Buckley.
The good thing for Connacht, with injuries in mind and relatively few players taking part in the Six Nations, is the break that follows tonight's game. Our next outing, and hopefully the beginning of an end of season push, is three weeks away. A win, perhaps with a bonus point if the weather plays ball, would act as a springboard into the recess and the final part of the season, when the work done by Connacht and our other provinces will shape next season and maybe beyond that as well.
