After the fiasco of Ireland's Rugby World Cup campaign of 2007, there are inevitable warning signs any time Ireland come into a World Cup year with any sense of optimism.
One veteran from that horrendous campaign is downplaying our chances to just a "slim chance". It's an answer that head coach Joe Schmidt will be proud of from his captain.
Paul O'Connell was speaking to the media yesterday about his future, Irish players looking to play in France and Ireland's chances in the World Cup.
While Ireland have only lost four games under Schmidt in two seasons, jumping to third in the world after back to back Six Nations titles, one might be forgiven for thinking that they could be contenders.
But Ireland's history at rugby's global showpiece isn't great, with no semi-final appearances in the six tournaments so far.
But Ireland have been given an opportunity with a favourable draw in a pool with France and Italy; before a potential route to the final with Argentina, and England/Wales/Australia or Scotland/Samoa/ or possibly but unlikely South Africa most likely blocking the way; all of which have been beaten over the last two years.
Paul O'Connell On Ireland's World Cup Chances
O'Connell isn't getting carried away with expectation. Yes, he's very excited for the tournament - but the memories of 2007 are fresh in his mind.
I feel very good about it and I'm really looking forward to it. I enjoy the way we handle the expectation.
O'Connell feels that over-training and fatigue were big problems with 2007, with a lot of the blame laid on the lack of warm up games that saw the players go into the tournament undercooked and overtrained.
Certainly in 2007 we got engulfed with the expectation of the World Cup and we felt that we had to say we had a chance of winning it, to make ourselves believe it, but I think going into this one we know that we if we do a whole load of things right between now and the World Cup we can put ourselves in with a chance.
You get the sense though, that O'Connell doesn't think Joe will let that happen. Schmidt's emphasis on preparation is one reason why O'Connell is so excited for Ireland's chances in the tournament.
It's a slim chance and it's an outside chance. I just think it's a good way of approaching the competition, it's a good way of approaching things. It has worked really well for us in the last 18 months under Joe, not getting too obsessed with the bigger picture and focusing on the here and now.
O'Connell acknowledges that being with the international camp means that pre-season is more intense, more competitive, and that probably contributed to the fiasco of 2007.
Ireland are set up nicely, but O'Connell and Schmidt are going to keep their feet firmly on the ground.
Photo Credit Brendan Moran /Sportsfile
