Leinster travel to Marseille for tomorrow's game against Toulon more in hope than in expectation. Such was the manner of the defeat in last year's Heineken Cup quarter final, Leinster aren't expected by many to make it through to their fourth final in seven years.
But it's not exactly mission impossible. Toulon have benched Steffon Armitage for some reason. Leinster have Sean O'Brien back. Luke Fitzgerald and Ben Te'o are coming into form. At there best, Leinster have more than a chance of overcoming the 11 point favourites, but how can Leinster beat Toulon?
How Leinster Beat Toulon
1. Set-piece
There was only one aspect of Leinster's game that stood up to Toulon in the quarter final last year. Leinster's scrum turned the screw on on Toulon's gargantuan pack. They'll need Cian Healy, Sean Cronin and Mike Ross to have another big game. With Wayne Barnes refereeing, the dominant early scrum will be rewarded so there is an opportunity for Leinster to gain a platform in the game and to disrupt Toulon ball.
Devin Toner will be required to secure and disrupt ball at lineout time, ably assisted by Jamie Heaslip and Jordi Murphy. Toulon have several wily lineout jumpers of their own, with Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe the centre of their set piece with veterans Bakkies Botha, Ali Williams and Juan Smith also more than handy out of touch.
2. Breakdown
While the scrum went well for Leinster last time out, Toulon overpowered them at the breakdown with both Mathieu Bastareaud and Steffon Armitage causing havoc on the deck. Leinster have effectively selected two and a half openside flankers in Jordi Murphy, Sean O'Brien and Heaslip, and will need help from Cian Healy to get some semblance of parity. O'Brien was missing the last day in Toulon, and Leinster will hope his ball carrying and breakdown work is the difference this time around.
3. Finishing
Leinster's biggest problem this season has been the inability of converting chances into scores. When things click, things go very well. That hasn't happened all that often for Leinster under Matt O'Connor. Still though, if they can approach how they played against Northampton in December 2013, they will be close to unstoppable even against the might of Toulon.
They can't afford the barrel loads of drop balls and miss-timed passes that have been a feature of Leinster at times this season. If they can take advantage of the attacking exploits of Luke Fitzgerald and Ben Te'o then they have a chance.
4. Over Confidence
You don't become two-time European champions without some talent. But it's the type of position that have seen them lose big games through over-confidence. They lost to Leicester this season in the Champions Cup, and have lost a huge eight games in the Top 14 already. This game isn't in their fortress Stade Felix Mayol like the quarter final last year was. Steffon Armitage is only on the bench, and there is a chance that one eye could be on the Top 14 for them, as that competition starts to wind up to the playoffs.
5. Pray
Ten Hail Marys should do it. Maybe an Our Father. Perhaps a Glory Be.
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