Ahead of this week's Wales v Ireland Six Nations decider this Saturday, we spoke to Arwel Jones, a Scarlets and Wales fan about his views on the upcoming grudge match.
Arwel has been a rugby fan for as long as he can remember following both the Scarlets and Wales. His playing career was limited to appearances for my school, Glantaf, in Cardiff, which incidentally was the same school that Jamie Roberts attended. He currently works in London and can be found rambling about mainly rugby on twitter.
Wales v Ireland Memories
My defining Wales Ireland memory is the match from 2005 in which the whole of Wales was brought to a standstill as its team looked to claim their first grand slam in 27 years in a sun-kissed Cardiff.
It was one of those 'I was there moments' as my 12 year old self sat behind the goal as Gethin Jenkins charged down O'Gara and scored to kick start a win played in the open, exciting fashion that was indicative of that Welsh team. By winning that game it ended all those years of hurt and provided the spark that has led to the recent spell of success for Wales.
Wales’ Six Nations so far
Gatland has not shied away from his intentions for this Six Nations; which is to use it as a World Cup preparation camp. This has meant Wales have focused much more of the conditioning side, with a regime that even James Haskell has winced at.
Ultimately, Wales will be disappointed in their campaign so far. This game v Ireland could have been a grand slam decider, but a lacklustre second half performance against England put paid to that. Away wins in Murrayfield and Paris were good results and the team showcased glimpses of its full ability, however they have yet to produce a full performance. Losing at home hurts badly so fully expect Wales to come out and produce a performance to put that right and to give themselves a shot at the title on the final weekend.
Wales Team
As expected the starting team remains the same from the side that won out in Paris. Scott Baldwin and Luke Charteris who both improved a creaking line-out deservedly keep their places. Wales will hope that Charteris (6'9'') can use his height to combat that of Toner (6'10'') and the imperious Irish line-out. Rob Evans, the Scarlets prop, comes on to the bench instead of the injured Paul James. If he were to come on alongside Samson Lee it would see 2 of the 3 of the Welsh front row on the field that impressed so much in the U20's World Championship in 2012. The rest of the pack has a familiar feel to it, with Warburton set to become the most capped Welsh captain of all time.
As for the backs, Liam Williams has managed to keep his place ahead of Cuthbert on the wing. He forced his way into the team after a string of impressive performances for both club and country, and will offer a real attacking threat behind the scrum. Rhys Webb at scrum half will keep the Irish fringe defence honest and is a proven try scorer with 4 in his last 6 caps.
Wales’ Strengths
A main strength of the Wales team is that they are a very settled, experienced side that know Gatland's style of play inside out. Everyone knows how to execute their role, and if executed correctly it poses a big threat. However, this style of predictability can be a weakness - Ireland know what is coming, and I am sure Schmidt has a plan to master its downfall. One would hope as a Welsh fan that Gatland has tweaked his game plan slightly just to keep the Irish on their toes.
It will be interesting to see if Schmidt continues with the same kicking game that worked so well against England. Biggar, Halfpenny and Williams are exceptional under the high ball, and all three will look to counter if possible. If they do, it will be some contest against the likes of Kearney and Bowe, but Ireland will have to be pin point accurate, otherwise it may open the door for Wales.
Ireland’s Strengths
Jonny Sexton. Quite simply the best fly half in the world for me at the moment. His kicking, leadership and running of the backline are exceptional. Madigan is a good player, but he is nowhere near the standard of Sexton, and Ireland seemed to lose their way slightly against England after Sexton went off. He has been confirmed as fit (unless Schmidt is really playing mind games!), but if he is not then it will be a huge, huge blow for Ireland.
Robbie Henshaw has impressed me greatly this 6 Nations, and is currently my man of the tournament. He has run hard, defended well and the way he took his try against England was brilliant. However, this will be a much bigger test than he has faced so far. Roberts and Davies are one of the most experienced pairs in world rugby and both are exceptional defenders. With Payne still in his international infancy too, I expect Wales to have the upper hand in midfield.
Forward Battle and Referee Change
It is the old rugby cliché - the game will be won up front and this game will be no different. Both teams have an embarrassment of riches behind and so whoever gains forward dominance will get the best chance of showcasing those riches. Ireland dominated the breakdown against England, where Wales have improved from the hiding they got in the second half against England. It will be a fascinating contest where the Welsh back row will have to be on fine form to counter O'Brien and co. Ireland’s scrum has been solid and Wales' indifferent at times, but with Samson Lee, fast becoming one of the world’s best tight heads, finding some form following injury, Wales could possibly gain the upper hand.
The way the breakdown and scrum is refereed will be crucial. With the late change in referee from Walsh to Barnes, it will cause both teams to re-think their style of play due to the differing styles of refereeing. All the players are very familiar with Barnes from previous internationals and European games and he will have to be strong and consistent in his interpretations otherwise the game will descend into a lottery.
Implications of Game
The implications of the game are huge for both teams. If Ireland win, then they will be set to retain the title and win only their third ever grand slam. If Wales win, then we are set for a 3-way decider on the final Saturday.
With the possibility of a World Cup semi-final meeting later this year it could give the winning side a psychological edge if that game were to become a reality.
I do feel this game has become much bigger over the years. Controversies (Phillips’ wrong ball try), big losses (World Cup 2011) and regional/provincial rivalries spilling over into international games have all contributed to both sets of fans marking this game as one they really want to win.
Prediction
The game will be a close one and with a good record in Cardiff, Ireland go into this game as slight favourites. There is no doubt Ireland are going to be up for it chasing a grand slam and the fact that it is Paul O'Connell's 100th cap. Their talismanic leader is not going to want to mark that occasion with a loss and another blown opportunity at a grand slam.
If I were a neutral, I would predict a close Irish victory, but I am not. Wales will also be up for this, their aerial prowess should hopefully nullify Ireland’s kicking game and with a vocal home crowd behind them I see them sneaking home by 3 points. A Welsh win will also make things a lot more exciting going into the last weekend and what would be better than three teams all having a shot at the title on the final day?
