Explaining The Result Annalise Murphy Needs To Win An Olympic Medal

Ireland stand a great chance of adding to our Olympic medal haul on Monday, as Annalise Murphy sits in third position heading into tomorrow's Laser Radial medal race. It can be slightly confusing, so here is the full explanation as to what Annalise needs to do to win a medal:

In Sailing, scores are cumulative and for the ten races so far, where ever you finished, that is your score. So if you're first you get one point, if you're tenth, you get 10 etc etc. You're allowed "discard" your worst score from the qualifying races. The points are doubled for the deciding medal race (1st gets 2, 10th gets 20). The medal race can't be discarded.  The lowest total score wins.

The medal race sees the top 10 sailors race but only 5 nations are in medal contention. Here are the standings:

1. Netherlands - 47
2. Denmark - 55
3. Ireland - 57
4. Belgium - 66
5. Finland - 68.6

To make it easier, here are the gaps

1. Netherlands - 0
2. Denmark - 8
3. Ireland - 10
4. Belgium - 19
5. Finland - 21.6

TO WIN A MEDAL

Ireland must finish ahead of 2 of these 4 countries in the final standings.

Here's how we can do that:

NETHERLANDS

Annalise must finish 5 or more places ahead of Netherlands: e.g. if they are 6th, only a win would be good enough for Annalise. 5th or better for the Dutch woman and we can't catch them.

DENMARK

We must finish ahead of Denmark in the medal race to leap frog them in the overall standings. If sailors are level on points, the placing in the medal race is the decider.

BELGIUM

We must finish 5 or fewer places behind Belgium. So if Belgium win, we must finish 5th (2nd -  6th etc).

FINLAND

We must finish 6 or fewer places behind Finland. So if Finland win, we must finish 6th (2nd -  7th etc)

A FIFTH place finish guarantees Annalise Murphy and Ireland a medal.

TO WIN GOLD 

All 4 above scenarios must happen. Effectively we need to finish 5+ ahead of Netherlands and beat Denmark. If Annalise wins the final race, we need Netherlands to finish 6th or below.

TO WIN SILVER

3 of the above scenarios. The most straight forward of those is a top 5 finish and ahead of Denmark. Theoretically, she could finish 9th ahead of Denmark and still win silver but its unlikely.

To gauge by history: how often have the necessary results happened?

1. Netherlands  - Once in 10 races
2. Denmark - Three times in 10 races (inc race 10)
3. Belgium - 8 in 10
4. Finland - 10 in 10

A repeat result of ANY of the 10 races so far will see Annalise win a medal. A repeat of 7 would see her win bronze, a repeat of 2 would see her win silver and a repeat of one of the races so far would see her win gold.

Come on Annalise!

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