Racing can be a pretty impenetrable world to break into. Today is Derby day at Epsom and it's a bit like the Flat Grand National - it's one of the few days that racing takes centre stage. Generally, racing coverage teeters maddeningly between catering for the hardcore audience and catering for the drooling imbeciles who bet on what colour hat the Queen will wear.
If talk gets around to the Derby, there's always one racing bore who will drone on about sires and dams and breeding and stamina and fetlocks like Fr Dougal. That's why we here at Balls.ie have decided to write this Bluffer's Guide to the Derby. We may be imbeciles but we can at least sound like we know what we are talking about.
It's the Derby, not The English Derby
Much like the Open in golf, it's just called the Derby. It's not a patriotic thing - the English just got there first. It's not like there is any shortage of Irish interest though. Out of the 16 runners, seven are trained by Irish trainers. And the majority of jockeys are Irish - nine out of the 16 were born here.
There is no such thing as a sure thing
Disregard anybody who tells you they have a tip for the Derby. Remember what Sherlock Holmes said about horses... "They are dangerous at both ends and craft in the middle." This is the most open Derby of a generation. Usually there is one stand-out horse trading at odds of 2/1 or lower. The fact that the likely favourite, Wings of Desire, will go off at around 9/2 speaks volumes. Of the field, only one horse can boast an unbeaten record - Aidan O'Brien's US Army Ranger - and he's only had two runs.
It's all about Aidan O'Brien
O'Brien is the undisputed Don of racing. His Ballydoyle stable have five of the 16 entries. Mathematically that means he has a 31 percent chance of winning it. Eight of the 16 jockeys have worked for O'Brien (pictured above) at some stage, another (Christophe Soumillon) turned down a job and another (Pat Smullen) is his brother-in-law. He's won the race five times and one more win will put him ahead of Michael Stoute (who runs Ulysses).
Despite his dominance of the sport and the unlimited finances at his disposal, O'Brien is almost universally liked. It's a bit like if Real Madrid were managed by Claudio Ranieri. O'Brien even supplies some of the romance of the race - his 18 year old son Donnacha rides Shogun. Even ice-cool Aidan might get emotional over that.
Ignore anyone who says a horse is sure to get the distance
The Derby is a race for three-year-olds. This means that even the most experienced of them has only been racing for 12 months at most. Trainers don't want to put the burden of hard races at a mile and a half into these youngsters too often so they are generally kept away from the distance. To date these 16 runners have run 74 races between them - and of that, only 4 of those 72 runs have been at the Derby distance. Two horses (US Army Ranger and Red Verdon) won but nobody really knows how good those races were.
There's no shortage of romance
It might be the bastion of the blue-bloods and the pinnacle of the English social season but there are still plenty of underdogs to cheer for. Athenry native Dougie Costello rides Biodynamic - the 100/1 outsider. The horse mightn't have much of a chance - but no more popular jockey in the weighing room could win.
Then there's Kieren Fallon (pictured above) riding Across the Stars. The Clareman is 51 now but even at his age might be the most naturally talented jockey in the race. He's had his fair share of controversies (even a couple of months ago he disappeared without trace for a couple of months) but if he's involved in the finish at all - there is nobody better.
There's even a grey horse this year for fans of Desert Orchid and the likes. Algometer is a 25/1 shot to become the first grey to win the race since 1946.
As already mentioned, this is the most open Derby in a generation. Therefore picking a winner is difficult enough, let alone a 1-2-3. But here goes...
Prediction
1 - US Army Ranger
2 - Cloth of Desire
3 - Moonlight Magic
