When the fillies line up at Epsom on Friday afternoon at 4.30, Minding is the red-hot favourite to win the Oaks. But is it the easy option for the Aidan O'Brien-trained three-year-old?
Minding was simply awesome when winning the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket and was immediately entered by bookmakers as the favourite for the Derby “with a run”. (“with a run” simply means that the bookmakers offer the bet on condition that the horse actually runs in the race – bets are refunded if the horse does not take part.)
Granted, Minding was beaten the weekend before last in the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh but still finished a creditable second after hitting the stalls at the start and breaking her sinus. Second under those circumstances was still quite a performance. But it was confirmed in the immediate aftermath that Minding would be heading for the Oaks and not the Derby.
Still though, in a year when the Derby is considered to be the most open race for years – if Minding wasn't owned by Coolmore and trained by Aidan O'Brien – she would most probably run in the Derby. The Oaks is a fine race – but the Derby is the Derby.
Minding, had she run, would also have been in receipt of a fillies' allowance from the colts – meaning she would have to carry three pounds less than her rivals – a significant advantage – especially given that there are no superstar colts in the race.
Only 235 horses have ever won the Derby – it's a chance to write your name into racing history. It's supposed to produce a winner that is the very best three-year old middle-distance runner around. Only this year, it might not.
But there are other considerations that come into play at Ballydoyle. Aidan O'Brien is, as the Racing Post said, “also in charge of the racing arm of the biggest stallion production line in Europe.”
So, instead, commercial realities have kicked in and Minding is being sent to the Oaks to be partnered with jockey Ryan Moore (pictured below) and O'Brien is sending at least five (and possibly six depending on the final entry) colts to the Derby. Classic-winning colts are what Coolmore is all about – it's part of the business model.
O'Brien always sends a phalanx of horses to the Classics so that's nothing out of the ordinary – but the fact that US Army Ranger is the shortest-priced of them at 9/2 shows that none of them are particularly fancied. The old adage of “if you have more than one horse for the Derby; you probably don't have a Derby horse” might prove to be true.
A Classic-winning broodmare is a fine thing indeed – but a mare can only produce one offspring a year whereas colts can cover up to 150 mares a year – at anywhere up to €150,000 a time. That's why a colt winning the Derby is a far more valuable thing than a filly winning it.
While the Epsom Oaks is a race that has thrown up four winners at odds of 20/1 or larger in the last six runnings of the race; there is a reason that Minding is the odds-on 4/5 favourite.
When it comes to the Oaks - Minding is simply the outstanding horse in the race – the question is – is it the right race?
