That was quite a day one of the Masters. Some of our tips have done well, like Jason Day and others not so well, like the legend that is Freddie Couples.
We all know that the tournament isn't won on the first day, but it is certainly lost. In fact, in a tournament of traditions, this stat was doing the rounds yesterday.
Each of the last 9 Masters winners:
- Broke par in 1st Rd
- Were in top-10 after 1st Rd
- Were within 4 of lead after 1st Rd— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 9, 2015
We all know that stats are only trends and guidelines, and that some players can come from nowhere. But if the trend were to continue, what would that mean for the field? Where will the next green jacket wearer come from?
There are only seven players within four of the lead at the moment, mostly due to the leader's massive score. Let's have a look at the pick of those players:
-4: Sergio Garcia & Russell Henley
Watch @TheSergioGarcia hole a 36-yard pitch-and-run on No. 14 to move to four-under-par. #themasters https://t.co/0aNSh7y7Hj
— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 9, 2015
It's astonishing to think that Sergio Garcia is yet to win a major. The highly talented Spanaird has a mixed history at Augusta, with some missed cuts and other good performances. This is his 17th appearance at Augusta, but just his fifth opening round under 70.
In his previous four, Garcia has gone on to have his better tournaments. He's 18/1 to win, but 4/1 for a top four finish which is enticing.
Russell Henley finishes his first round with a 4-under-par 68. #themasters pic.twitter.com/57oIT19EyP
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2015
I had one friend of mine tip Russell Henley pre-tournament only for me to laugh in his face. Credit to him, as Henley looked very impressive as he moved to -4. Henley is competing in his third masters and has moved from a pre-tournament 125/1 to 40/1.
Henley has taken his impressive form into this week after a top five finish in the Shell Open. Henley measures well in the key stats we identified pre-tournament, with strong Driving and he is the leader on tour of making putts from four to eight feet.
-5: Ernie Els, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day & Justin Rose:
Charley Hoffman takes the early first round lead with a 5-under-par 67. #themasters pic.twitter.com/ds5tNsfLvk
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2015
Charley Hoffman was first out amongst the field and got things going very early on. He was fancied pre tournament for his great form. He could have been found at 225/1 in some places before play, and is now 35/1. Hoffman has a bit more experience than Henley, and is less likely to fall away. He can be found at 8/1 for a top four finish.
Justin Rose always has a good opening round in the majors. It's a bit mystifying why he hasn't had a better record in closing things out. Rose loves Augusta and hasn't finished outside the top 40 in his nine showings, with seven top 30's, four top 20's and a best finish of fifth. Top ten seems a probability, but there is something about Rose that suggests he's going to fall away before hanging in.
Ernie Els rolled back the years. The Big Easy was so relaxed in his swing. The big South African was one of the great stories of the day with his form. A bogey on the 18th was poor, and it's been awhile since Els has been in form. He loves Augusta though, and could be the older player whose experience keeps him in the hunt on Sunday. That would provide some great entertainment. An each way bet for Els is tempting at 7/1.
Which leaves perennial major contender Jason Day. Day stood out in all of the metrics, and performed very well yesterday. He's very steady, and when he gets in the mood like he did yesterday, he's likely to be at the top of the leaderboard all weekend. An each way bet is 11/10 which seems like printing money. He's currently second favourite behind Speith to win at 5/1. Can he finally get over the hump? He's only won three times in America in four years, although one of those was this year which bodes very well.
-8 and Leader: Jordan Spieth:
What a round from Jordan Spieth. The in form rising superstar was absolutely sensational in posting the best opening round of the masters in 19 years. He was outstanding in his Masters debut last year, and just kept up the good play last night. Like Day, it seems a near certainty that he will be in the later groups on Sunday.
Will this be the first major of many for Spieth as he looks to be McIlroy's biggest threat over the next decade?
Others:
This doesn't bode well for those outside this group. Perhaps the group on -3 are still in the hunt, which includes another pre-tournament tip in Paul Casey.
Unfortunately for Irish hopes, Rory McIlroy has a lot to do to complete the career grand slam. The Northern Irishman struggled to post a -1 round. He played very patiently, and could grind out a decent score, but will need to rediscover his magic to catch the leaders. If anyone is capable of blowing through the field it's McIlroy though.
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