As we look forward to the final weekend of the round-robin series, there are plenty of permutations still possible and some teams are in must-win territory to remain in the All-Ireland series.
No team is sure of their future just yet, although some groups are a lot easier to predict than others. There’s lots to play for and as we learned last year in the final rounds, anything can happen.
All-Ireland football championship: All the permutations for the final round-robin games
Group One
Group One is fairly straightforward on the final weekend. Armagh and Galway face off at Markievicz Park, Sligo with the winner guaranteed top spot while Derry and Westmeath battle it out to remain in the competition.
Mickey Harte and Dessie Dolan go head-to-head on Saturday evening in Pairc Esler, Newry, knowing that a victory will see them finish third. A draw would favour Westmeath as they have a superior score difference over the Oak Leafers.
This of course means that Derry must win their final game to stay in the All-Ireland championship.
Both teams have lost their previous two outings against Armagh and Galway, so the best either can do is to come third. Westmeath crashed out of the competition at this stage last year, while Derry topped their group in 2023.
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Armagh and Galway are both on four points, so the loser of Sunday’s encounter is sure of home advantage in next week’s preliminary quarter-final while the winner advances straight to the last eight.
A draw would see Armagh qualify for the All-Ireland quarter-finals as they have a better score difference than Galway, so Padraic Joyce’s men need to win. Armagh won this same game last year to top the group while Galway lost to Mayo in the preliminary quarter-final.
18 June 2023; Aidan Forker of Armagh in action against Ian Burke of Galway during the GAA Football All-Ireland Senior Championship Round 3 match between Galway and Armagh at Avant Money Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada in Carrick-on-Shannon, Leitrim. Photo by Harry Murphy/Sportsfile
Group Two
Like Group One, Group Two is evenly split and fairly handy to work out. Mayo and Dublin lock horns on Sunday and both are chasing top spot while Roscommon and Cavan battle it out to see who crashes out of the championship.
Dublin and Mayo games quite often take on a life of their own and the two teams built up a huge rivalry over the past decade or more. But more often than not, it has been the Dubs that came out on top.
However, Mayo can secure their place in the last eight in the race for Sam Maguire with a win over their old foes. For Dublin, a draw would see them advance as they hold a significantly superior scoring average over Kevin McStay’s men.
Roscommon and Cavan have both lost out to the top two meaning they are left to wrestle it out at the bottom of the table as both counties hope to avoid the bottom place which will see them exit the competition.
Cavan lost out heavily to the top two while Roscommon were more competitive, meaning they have a better chance of surviving should Saturday’s clash end in a draw.
2 July 2023; Con O'Callaghan of Dublin in action against Jack Coyne of Mayo during the GAA Football All-Ireland Senior Championship quarter-final match between Dublin and Mayo at Croke Park in Dublin. Photo by Piaras Ó Mídheach/Sportsfile
Group Three
Calculators at the ready, this is where things get complicated. Three of the four teams competing in Group Three can finish top of the pile while Donegal and Clare can both finish bottom of the pile.
Cork are currently top with four points and, should they beat Tyrone on Saturday, then that’ll leave things much easier. As long as the Rebels avoid defeat, they’ll qualify automatically for the last eight.
If Tyrone and Donegal (vs Clare) win, then things won’t be as plain sailing. That would mean that Cork, Tyrone and Donegal all finish on four points, and score difference would come into play to decide where the three teams finish.
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Should Cork and Clare win, then that would see Tyrone, Donegal and Clare all finish on two points and, again, score difference would be required to decide who drops out and who finishes second and third.
Clare’s score difference is way off Tyrone and Donegal, so they would need to beat Jim McGuinness’ side by a significant margin to remain in the competition. Draws in either game shouldn’t cause as many headaches.
18 May 2024; Cork manager John Cleary before the GAA Football All-Ireland Senior Championship Round 1 match between Clare and Cork at Cusack Park in Ennis, Clare. Photo by Ray McManus/Sportsfile
Group Four
Kerry already have one foot in the All-Ireland quarter-finals and, as long as they avoid defeat to Louth this weekend at O’Moore Park, then they’ll finish top of their group for the second successive season.
The Kingdom hammered Louth in the group stages last year, 5-24 to 0-11, so Ger Brennan’s men will be keen to close that gap on Sunday - score difference could be extremely important for who finishes second and third.
Should Louth lose, and Monaghan beat Meath, then Louth and Monaghan would finish level on three points. Those two teams drew the last day out, and Louth currently sit on +10 while Monaghan have -10.
Monaghan can still exit the championship, however, if they happen to lose to Colm O’Rourke’s Royals on Sunday. Meath, who lost to both Kerry and Louth, would leap over the Farney men with a victory.
Meath’s only hope of remaining in the run for Sam Maguire is to win the game as a draw will see them finish bottom of the table.
18 June 2023; Tony Brosnan of Kerry in action against Tommy Durnin of Louth during the GAA Football All-Ireland Senior Championship Round 3 match between Kerry and Louth at Laois Hire O'Moore Park in Portlaoise, Laois. Photo by Michael P Ryan/Sportsfile
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