As an institution, the 'sure-fire can't miss accumulator of the week' suffered some reputational damage last week. There's no point saying any different.
Three of the five 'can't miss' picks emphatically did miss. The selections were not without controversy. Against the wishes of one of the contributors of the Racket, the writer of the post insisted that Clare -1 was a bet worth taking on.
Two things here. Firstly, one should caution against recency bias in these matters. It's important to remember the great triumphs that the 'sure-fire, can't miss accumulator of the week' has enjoyed in the past. Those times when it lived up to its name, making readers that bit wealthier in the process.
Secondly, we have learned from last week's debacle, and after an exhaustive review process have to decided to re-structure the accumulator of the week post.
From now on, we will offer two competing accumulators for your perusal. The first is a conservative, penny-minding pick, chose by conservative Conor Neville. The second is a high-risk, high-reward offering, picked by daring Donny Mahoney.
To combat the appeal of the Euros, the GAA has pulled some gargantuan rabbits out of the hat, specifically Roscommon and Sligo, who face off in Hyde Park.
On Thursday's Racket, we discussed the handicaps at length.
Conservative Conor's picks
- Fermanagh + 5 v Donegal
- Sligo + 6 v Roscommon
- Offaly + 1 v Westmeath
The reasoning:
The bookies have changed tactics on the handicaps this week, having underestimated the margins of victory in most games (Mayo-London and Dublin-Laois, aside). They have seem to have adjusted most of the winning margins upwards for this week. Last week for instance, Monaghan were offered at -4. This week, by contrast, the Rossies are placed at -6 in a potentially much tighter game in Connacht.
As a result, we've had to stick our neck out more than we'd like this time.
- While Donegal are said to be going well, albeit in a very quiet way this year, there is a definite sense that Fermanagh can get inside this five point margin. Anticipating a cagey game in Ballybofey with Donegal perhaps winning by three points.
- Six points is a big margin in a match-up which has traditionally been close. Roscommon appeared to have come through their New York wobble but we can't see them hammering their near rivals in a championship game.
- Strong hunch here that Offaly - in giddy form after ending their Leinster championship drought against Longford - will build in recent form. Westmeath were relegated to Division 4 while Offaly were knocking on the door of promotion. Strong fancy for the away team.
5 euro gets you 33 euro back.
Daring Donny selections:
- Dublin +5 vs Kilkenny
- Clare +11 vs Kerry
- Louth +5 vs Meath
- Tipp +7 vs Cork
- Sligo +6 vs Roscommon
- Fermanagh +5 vs Donegal
Firstly, a note on Conservative Conor's picks. Is a 3 team bet an accumulator? Hardly. Thanks for the unambitious arrival into this column, bud.
Anyways, onto the fun stuff. This is the week that the bookies freaked out. Having seen blowout after blowout in the first weeks of the Championship, they have now swung in the complete opposite direction, with a series of wild handicaps tilted towards the favourites.
As far as we can see, this week's matches are pretty close. Is turgid Cork really seven points better than anyone, especially Tipp, who were solid against Waterford? Is solid Division 2 team Fermanagh really five points worse than Donegal? Is very average Meath five points better than feisty Louth? Will this Kerry team win beat Clare by 11? Will Kilkenny without Richie Hogan flay rising Dublin? Will Roscommon, who've lost two matches to Sligo twice this decade, steamroll the men in black?
We're not so sure, which is why we've backed every underdog this weekend (bar the Offaly-Westmeath game, which we have no idea about).
1 euro gets you 51.45 back from Ladbrokes.
Read more: Remembering The Strangest Football Championship Of The 21st Century
