The sexy qualifiers begin this weekend.
Is there anything more important going on in Irish sport, or indeed the world, this Saturday than the meeting of Carlow and Wicklow in Netwatch Dr. Cullen Park?
And the following day Leitrim meet Waterford in (Fortress) Pairc Sean.
There are more glamorous looking encounters in the Connacht Football Championship and the Munster Hurling Championship which may hold the attention better.
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After being taken to the cleaners in the early days of championship 2016, the bookies seem to have adjusted their handicapping strategy.
Last week, the predicted margin of victory went way higher than it had been in previous weeks. A fortnight ago, they offered Monaghan at -4 against Down. The second half blowout made the predicted margin look foolish. This was repeated continually in the opening weeks of the championships.
However, the Rossies still managed to trump their seemingly optimistic -6 winning margin. Kerry were offered at -11, eventually pipping the handicap in the final seconds.
Here are our picks for this weekend:
- Mayo -5 (v Galway)
- Galway -11 (v Offaly)
- Tipperary -5 (v Limerick)
- Carlow +1 (v Wicklow)
Mayo -5: Historically, this has been a tit-for-tat relationship in Connacht and one keeps anticipating that Galway will catch up with their neighbours sooner or later. But there's little indication that it's going to happen this year. Five championship debutants for Galway and another League in which minimal progress was made.
Occasionally, they pull out the performance which teases people with the idea that revival is at hand. Then the next day out, one witnesses an unbearably flat display. Mayo didn't exactly pull up trees in the League but they still have all the big guns ready.
Galway -11: Four years ago, Galway travelled to Portlaoise to play Offaly with expectations in the county greatly dimmed after a poorish League and an unimpressive win over Westmeath. RTE's preview piece even tipped an Offaly win. Galway riddled them with goals and notched up a 14 win. We expect a similar outcome this weekend.
Offaly have tentatively recovered from the loss in Mullingar last month, but the win against Laois shouldn't be oversold. Laois weren't the same animal this year, having lost to several players from the class of 2015. We expect Offaly to be buried under a hail of three-pointers. Big win for Galway.
Tipperary -5: Limerick shocked Tipp in the 2013 and 2014 championship. But Tipp looked in mean mood in their first championship outing this year. The manner in which they lost to Limerick in 2014 hinted at something which Michael Ryan seemed at pains to rectify when he assumed the job, namely, the sense that Tipperary were not hard-edged enough in tight battles.
Limerick endured a regressive year in 2015 and their League exit against Waterford didn't inspire confidence. We're thinking a Tipp win somewhere within the 7-10 point margin.
Carlow +1: Carlow beat Wicklow in the League and enjoy home advantage here. Their last win the championship occurred in a first round qualifier in Dr. Cullen Park in 2014. The bookies have made Wicklow very tentative favourites. We give Carlow the nod.
