Longford drew Kildare in the qualifiers this morning. Their name was drawn out of the pot first, a detail which would normally have prompted much rejoicing in Longford.
You see, their Pearse Park home is one of those venues that has been oft bestowed, in newspaper columns and other such places, with the prefix 'Fortress', in deference to the home team's strong record in the place.
Mayo, Down and Derry (twice) have all been humbled at the ground, while Dublin (2006) and Kerry (2009) have both found it tough going getting out of there with a win.
However, Longford will now not be able to face Kildare on their home patch on the rather persuasive basis that the Stand on one side of the pitch is sinking into the ground.
They will instead have to face them in the neutral venue of Mullingar.
How costly will Longford's sinking Stand prove to be? (We mean purely in terms of the upcoming qualifier, here. In actual monetary terms, the Stand will indeed cost them big in repairs).
Rob Carroll of 'Gaelic Stats' has examined the qualifier data between the years of 2008 and 2012 to evaluate the importance of home advantage. Excluding qualifiers played in neutral venues, there were 93 games played in which one team held home advantage. The figures are revealing.
Altogether, the home side triumphed just under 56% of the time, while the away team 39.7% of the time. 4.3% of the games ended in draws.
When the teams facing each other were a couple of divisions apart, the gap tightened with home wins accounting for just 48.4% of wins while away teams won 45.2% of the time.
However, when teams in the same Division faced each other, the home side won a whopping 81.25% of matches. This is from a sample size of 16 games.
Carroll hasn't examined the stats from 2015 yet, but they appear to be more even. Roscommon and Cavan were both in the same Division this year and the Rossies won in Breffni Park for the second year running. However, it should be acknowledged that Roscommon were promoted again this year and Cavan were down to 14 men for the whole second half.
Longford and Clare find themselves in the same division next year, after Longford unsurprisingly hauled themsleves out of the bottom tier.
Elsewhere, Kildare will meet Offaly (and Longford) in Division 3 next year and they managed to win narrowly in O'Connor Park.
Of course, the nature of your findings depends on whether you work off next year's League and take account of the recent spate of promotions and relegations, or whether you just work off the previous League.
If one takes the latter course, Longford v Carlow and Waterford v Offaly were the only home/away qualifiers between teams of the same Division. The former went the way of the home team and the latter was won by the away side. However, seeing as both the winners were promoted this season, drawing too many conclusions on the nature of the home and away debate from these games might be unwise.
