The final round of World Cup group games is upon us and, with it, the onslaught of calculators en masse to try and keep up to date with who will be progressing to the knockout stages. Next up on the agenda at the World Cup is the conclusion of Group E and Group F.
It can be hard to wrap your head around what teams require to qualify - so we've gone through every World Cup group and assessed what each team needs to do to go through.
Wednesday brings what should be a gripping conclusion to Group E, with all four teams in genuine contention to qualify, while Group F also sees every team in with at least an outside chance of progressing.
Bring it on.
World Cup 2022: The permutations for the final round of group games
World Cup tiebreakers explained
If two or more teams are tied on points at the end of a World Cup group stage, the following tiebreakers apply in descending order:
- Goal difference in all group matches
- Goals scored in all group matches
- Points in head-to-head between the teams
- Goal difference in head-to-head between the teams
- Goals scored in head-to-head between the teams
- FIFA Fair Play rule
- Drawing of lots
The Fair Play rule drew contention in 2018 when Senegal were knocked out by Japan on account of having more yellow cards across their group games. The fair play system deducts one point for a yellow card, three points for an indirect red card (second yellow), four points for a straight red, and five for a yellow card followed by a straight red. In the event of it being used as a tiebreaker, the team with the most points will go through.
World Cup permutations
Group E: Spain, Japan, Costa Rica, Germany
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1st | Spain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 4 |
| 2nd | Japan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3rd | Costa Rica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 3 |
| 4th | Germany | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Final group games: Japan v Spain, Costa Rica v Germany (1 Dec, 7:00pm)
- A win or draw will guarantee qualification for Spain. Defeat could still see them go through, given their huge goal difference - but if they lose and Costa Rica beat Germany, they are out.
- Japan will go through if they beat Spain, or if both games finish in a draw. If they lose, they are out of the World Cup - the same result will occur if they draw and Costa Rica beat Germany. If they draw and Germany win, goal difference will decide who progresses.
- Costa Rica will qualify for the last 16 by beating Germany, while they will be out if they lose. If their game ends in a draw and
- (a) Spain beat Japan, Costa Rica will go through
- (b) Japan beat Spain, second place in the group will be decided on goal difference
- (c) Japan and Spain draw, Costa Rica are out
- Germany need to win against Costa Rica to stand any chance of progressing. If they and Spain both win, Germany will be through. All other results in the other game coupled with a Germany game would see goal difference come into the equation, while they are out if they lose or draw.
Balls.ie prediction: Spain and Germany to progress.
Group F: Croatia, Morocco, Belgium, Canada
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1st | Croatia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 2nd | Morocco | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 3rd | Belgium | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4th | Canada | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Final group games: Croatia v Belgium, Canada v Morocco (1 Dec, 3pm)
- Croatia will progress if they avoid defeat. If they lose, they need Canada to beat Morocco and hope that they can beat the Moroccans on goal difference.
- Morocco will qualify if they win or draw. If they lose, they need Belgium to beat Croatia and hope that their goal difference beats that of the Croatians.
- Belgium will qualify for the last 16 if they beat Croatia, or if they draw and Morocco beat Croatia - in which case the group will come down to goal difference.
- Canada are out of the World Cup.
Balls.ie predictions: Croatia and Morocco to qualify
Group A: Netherlands, Ecuador, Senegal, Qatar
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Q | Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| Q | Senegal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3rd | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 4th | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
- The Netherlands and Senegal have qualified for the last 16 after the final round of group games
Group B: England, Iran, USA, Wales
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Q | England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| Q | USA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 3rd | Iran | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 4th | Wales | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
- England and the USA have qualified for the last 16 after the final round of group games
Group C: Poland, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Q | Argentina | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| Q | Poland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3rd | Mexico | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4th | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
- Argentina and Poland have qualified for the last 16 after the final round of group games
Group D: France, Australia, Denmark, Tunisia
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| Q | France | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| Q | Australia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 3rd | Tunisia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4th | Denmark | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
- France and Australia have qualified for the last 16 after the final round of group games
Group G: Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1st | Brazil | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2nd | Switzerland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3rd | Cameroon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 4th | Serbia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Final group games: Cameroon v Brazil, Serbia v Switzerland (2 Dec, 7:00pm)
- Brazil have qualified for the last 16. They will top the group unless they lose and Switzerland win, in which case the two sides will be split on goal difference.
- Switzerland will be guaranteed to go through if they win, and guaranteed to be knocked out if they lose. If they draw and Brazil avoid defeat, they will progress, but if they draw and Cameroon beat Brazil, then Cameroon and Switzerland would be split on goal difference.
- Serbia and Cameroon both need to win to progress. If they both win, they will be split on goal difference to decide second place in the group.
Balls.ie prediction: Brazil and Switzerland to qualify.
Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea
| Position | Country | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1st | Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2nd | Ghana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3rd | South Korea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 4th | Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Final group games: South Korea v Portugal, Ghana v Uruguay (2 Dec, 3:00pm)
- Portugal have qualified for the last 16 and will be guaranteed top of the group if they avoid defeat in their final game.
- Ghana will be through if they beat Uruguay. If they draw and South Korea win, second place in the group would be decided on goal difference.
- Uruguay and South Korea will be eliminated if they do not win. Even if they win, their fates will depend on the other team's result - if they both win, goal difference will come into the equation.
Balls.ie prediction: Portugal and Ghana to qualify
So far, four World Cup round of 16 games are confirmed. The Netherlands will take on the USA on Saturday December 3rd at 3:00pm, before Argentina play Australia at 7:00pm. The next day, France play Poland at 3:00pm, while England face Senegal at 7:00pm.
If our predictions come through, the rest of the last 16 games at the 2022 World Cup would look something like this:
- Spain v Morocco
- Croatia v Germany
- Brazil v Ghana
- Portugal v Switzerland
There's potential for some big shocks, and some underdogs to make a name for themselves, in a mouthwatering final round of World Cup group games.
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