Coming into the group stage of this much-anticipated Euro 2016, there was a sort of bar-room logic that suggested that two points could well see Ireland out of the group. With 16 of the 24 teams going through - it seemed at least plausible that two draws would mean Ireland would not be one of the eight teams booted out at the end of the group stage.
That scenario is already looking unlikely however, even if it still might represent Ireland's most realistic chance of qualifying. If Ireland win either of their remaining games - they will go through to the knockouts. But, Ireland are heavy underdogs in both remaining games so the reality is that the rest of Europe are expecting to see us off at the airport come next Wednesday.
So, let's just assume that Ireland draw one of their remaining games. What exactly would Martin O'Neill's men need to happen to go through?
The third-placed team in Groups B and C are already on three points (currently Wales and Northern Ireland respectively). Obviously this means that a tally of two points won't overtake them.
It's quite early to be undertaking an analysis like this at this stage - but we're half way through the group stages and there's a very definite trend developing that doesn't bode well for Ireland. If we were accepting that third place was our best chance of going through, we needed to hope that there were two relatively dominant teams in each group.
That's certainly not what's happening so far. The performances from the likes of Northern Ireland, Iceland and Hungary already means that sneaking into third place with two points is unlikely to be enough to see us through. So what do we have to be hoping for from each of the other groups?
Group A
It's all down to that Romania and Albania fixture. If the two sides draw - then Romania will finish in third place on two points. If Ireland also had two points (assuming O'Neill's men can scramble another point against either Belgium or Italy), then it would come down to goal difference. Romania are currently at -1. This would mean Ireland would have to lose by only one goal and then it would come down to goals scored - Romania currently have 2 - so Ireland would need at least three more group goals to beat that.
What we want to happen: A 0-0 draw between Albania and Romania would suit Ireland best.
Group B
Already out of reach in the two point scenario. England beating Slovakia would at least ensure that three points is the max a third place team can get here but it's likely that we'll have to look elsewhere for some help.
What we want to happen: If we can get at least two draws from our final two games, then we're looking for England to beat Slovakia but the reality is that Group B is already looking out of reach.
Group C
Once again, in the two point scenario, it's already out of reach. Northern Ireland's 2-0 win against Ukraine means that they, along with Poland and Germany already have reached that magic three point total - thus ruling out one of the scenarios the we were semi-counting on - that the third-placed finisher in this group (Northern Ireland or Ukraine) would finish on two points.
What we want to happen: In a 'three points for third' scenario, we'd be looking for Germany to beat Northern Ireland by more than one goal but again, it may be best to look elsewhere.
Group D
Here's where things get trickier as all the sides remaining have only played one game and so have two games each left. In the next round of games we will assume that Croatia beat the Czech Republic and Spain beat Turkey. That would leave both the Czech Republic and Turkey with zero points going into their last game. A draw between them in that would leave both sides at one point apiece - which would suit Ireland beautifully, though a win for either side would scupper our hopes.
What we want to happen: Very simple. Wins tomorrow for Spain and Croatia (both of whom dominated their opening games). Then a draw between the Czech Republic and Turkey next Tuesday.
Group E
The big question today, who should Ireland fans support between Italy and Sweden? What would be best to hope for is an Italian win against Sweden which would see them guaranteed to qualify and they then take it easy against Ireland next Wednesday. If Ireland do lose against Belgium - goals scored would be critical - as well as the fact that we'd need to keep the margin to a minimum. A loss would be bad - but a 3-2 or 4-3 loss would be more palatable!
What we want to happen: Italy to spank Sweden today and then we'll take things as they come.
Group F
Again - there are elements of assumption here. If, as most people expect, Hungary beat Iceland and Portugal beat Austria then Austria would have no points and Iceland only one going into their last fixture. At this point, a draw would suit Ireland perfectly and it would leave Iceland on two points (their goal difference would depend on what score Hungary beat them by).
What we want to happen: Big wins for Hungary and Portugal on Saturday. Then a goalless draw between Iceland and Austria next week.
