Ireland are rapidly running out of road in Group D. The chances to force their way into the top 3 are dwindling.
We've drawn as many games as we can reasonably afford - another one against Germany would perhaps be tolerable. Realistically, Ireland are going to have beat someone proper soon. That means winning away in Poland on 11 October.
The home game against Poland was billed as a must win. This was revised following the elation of the last gasp equaliser and the encouraging second half performance.
The game yesterday was billed as a must win. Martin O'Neill tried to revise that in his post-match interview. Less people are buying these attempts this time around.
What are the permutations now? Is there a way around having to win against Poland in October? We will aim to find the least demanding route to the European championships.
As a quick reminder, the qualifying criteria is as follows:
- There's eight groups of six teams and one group of five.
- The top two from each of these go straight through to the finals. Simple so far.
- The best third placed team also qualifies but only when the results against the sixth placed teams are discarded.
- The remaining eight third-placed teams are drawn into four two-legged play-off games with the winners qualifying.
Here's the way the way the group lies as of June 14 2015:
What Ireland need to do to come first
Us winning all four of our remaining matches would be most congenial in this respect. Germany perhaps beating Poland and Georgia, drawing with Scotland and losing in Dublin.
Scotland beating Gibraltar and drawing with everyone else. Poland drawing with the Scots, beating Gibraltar and losing to us and Germany. We'd come out on top. Not going to happen.
What Ireland need to do to come second
German hegemony would be helpful here. If Germany win all of their remaining games that would leave them on 25 points by the campaign's end.
Second place essentially necessitates a victory in Poland. As far as finishing in second place goes, we could only get away with a loss to Germany if the Scots drop more than five points in their last four games. With a trip to Georgia and home games still against Poland and Georgia this is possible.
It is unlikely that Scotland will lose at home to Poland. Draws for the Scots in Georgia and at home to the Poles could be beneficial for us. If the Poles take four points (losses to us and Germany and a draw in Scotland) and the Scots take five from their remaining games then three wins and a loss to the Germans will see us climb into second place.
What Ireland need to do to come third
A play-off spot is now the shimmering prize that Irish football fans have set their sights on. In the past, third place in a qualifying group would not have been regarded as an especially onerous ask for an Irish team. Indeed it would have been regarded as quite the failure. But thanks to Platini and co, third place could be just another staging post to the holy grail of qualification.
Scotland's remaining games
Georgia (A) - Sept 4, Germany (H) - Sept 7 , Poland (H) - Oct 8, Gibraltar (A) - Oct 11
Ireland's remaining games
Gibraltar (A) - Sept 4, Georgia (H) - Sept. 7 , Germany (H) - Oct 8 , Poland (A) Oct 11
Seven points from our remaining games - that is, victories over Gibraltar and Georgia, a loss to Germany and a draw in Poland - would leave us needing Scotland to claim four points from four games. Scotland's form would need to decline precipitously for this to come about. This would likely involve us praying for Scottish losses at home to Germany and Poland. Even with that we would need the Georgians to take two points off them in Tblisi. We note that all these calculations are based on accepting that Scotland will beat Gibraltar.
Eight points would leave us in a better position. Two draws against Poland and Germany and we would able to accommodate a Scottish draw in one of their remaining home games. But we would still require Georgia to upset the bandwagon in the next match.
If Scotland take the three points on their trip to Georgia, then it all becomes very simple. Eight points will not suffice. If Ireland finish level on points with the Scots, then Scotland's aggregate win over Ireland in the head-to-head fixtures will come into play. To clamber above Scotland, Ireland will need to beat either Germany or Poland.
Working off the principle that Ireland like to draw where possible, the most likely path to the play-off spot is Ireland claiming eight points from our remaining games with two draws against Poland and Germany. In this case we could accommodate Scotland beating Gibraltar, drawing at home to Poland, losing to Germany and most critically of all, drawing away in Tblisi.
In summary: Come on Georgia!
There is obviously a (very) outside chance we could pip Poland but it would necessitate beating them and hoping they fail to beat both Germany and Scotland.
Naturally, it is mathematically possible that we could overcome Germany (more so than for Poland in fact) although we are content to write this off as unfeasible.
