Ireland got the job done against Moldova tonight, and there are currently a host of teams falling over themselves to do the other half of the job for us. Ireland needed six points from the final two games to guarantee second place in the group, and we then needed a couple of results to go our way in other groups to make sure that we are among the eight best runners-up.
We had targeted Groups H and F as the most likely to help us out, and last night's games went perfectly to plan: England beat Slovenia, while Scotland won at home to Slovakia. Therefore, if Scotland fail to beat Slovenia away from home on Sunday then Ireland will kick off in Wales knowing that qualification is in our own hands.
The Group H games that we need to go our way, meanwhile, kick off tomorrow night. We have been given an unlikely fillip tonight, however, with a couple of upsets offering us a back-up if Scotland win on Sunday.
It came from Group I: Iceland went and beat Turkey 3-0 away from home to assure go clear at the top of the group, putting them on the brink of qualification. Croatia, meanwhile were denied a win at home to Finland in the final minute, dropping to second in the group as a result of a 1-1 draw.
That means they are level on points with third-placed Ukraine, but are ahead on goal difference. Both sides face each other in Kiev on Monday night, and a draw would mean that Croatia will end up with 12 points on the table of runners-up. Ireland can only appear on this table with 13 points, meaning we would nudge ahead of them.
While Ireland's fate is not fully in their hands yet, it is getting closer and closer to being so.
So just to make it clear: if Ukraine and Croatia draw in Kiev on Monday night, then a win against Wales would guarantee Ireland a place in the playoffs.
