There’s been so much chatter recently during the twists and turns of the title race, that you’d be forgiven for not noticing that a relegation fight has emerged. Remarkably, with just over three weeks left in the season, six teams can win the title and the other four can be relegated.
In truth, it’s probably more correct to say a battle to avoid the relegation/promotion play off has emerged, as it’s looking more and more likely that Dundalk will finish bottom of the table and be relegated directly. It might not be the worst thing to befall the club this year, but Jon Daly’s men are 7 points adrift at the bottom, and 11 points from the safety of eighth place – with only 9 points available to them. Dundalk can argue that their recent performances haven’t been rewarded with fair results, but the scoreboard tells you they have 3 points (and no wins) from their last 9 games. Their next two games are at home to title chasing Derry City and Shamrock Rovers. If they pull off two “miracle” wins there, it may still not be enough to catch Drogheda United by beating them on the last day.
4 October 2024; Dundalk manager Jon Daly consoles Eoin Kenny after the drawn SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Galway United and Dundalk at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway. Photo by Piaras Ó Mídheach/Sportsfile
That’s because of all the teams involved at the bottom, Drogheda United are in the strongest form. Since losing to Dundalk in mid-July, they’ve won 4 games and drawn 3 more to go from being 5 points behind Dundalk, to being 7 points ahead of them. In the same time frame, they’ve gone from being 9 points behind Bohemians, to being only 4 points behind them.
Bohemians were second in the table at Easter time but have earned only 17 points in the 20 games since. Last time out they beat Dundalk 2-0 in Oriel Park which should have eased their worries but with Drogheda beating Derry the same evening, they’re still looking over their shoulder.
When Waterford beat Dundalk in mid-September, they went third in the table. They had been in contention for a European spot pretty much all season. However, that win against Dundalk – in controversial circumstances – is their only win in their last six games. They have lost the other five! In fact, Waterford have lost 7 of their last 9 league games and they’ve gone from thinking about Europe, to being worried about being dragged into the relegation fight.
Waterford still have a buffer between them and the rest – 7 ahead of Bohemians, 11 ahead of Drogheda - but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they didn’t pick up a point again this season. They’ll likely be okay thanks to their early season form, but they’re not mathematically safe yet and that will be of concern to Keith Long as he plans for next season.
20 September 2024; Waterford manager Keith Long during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between St Patrick's Athletic and Waterford at Richmond Park in Dublin. Photo by Shauna Clinton/Sportsfile
If we project that Dundalk are down and Waterford are safe, then we’re left with a battle between Drogheda United and Bohemians to avoid the play-off spot – and that could be all over this weekend too.
On Friday night, Waterford host Drogheda United while Derry City host Bohemians. On Monday, Bohs host St Pats. 2 wins for Bohs and a defeat for Drogheda would confirm Drogheda and Dundalk in the bottom two. Form - such as it is in the League of Ireland – suggests that it is unlikely we’ll see those 3 results though.
If we get the opposite - 2 defeats for Bohs and a win for Drogheda - we’d have a point between the sides with 3 games left to play.
Bohs would still be favoured to finish ahead of them but either way their results this weekend will have a major impact on how the final three weeks of the season play out. They can play spoiler against Derry and/or St Pats or they can find themselves in trouble.
Drogheda United may end up being involved in the final two games of the 2024 season. The play off final is scheduled to be played on Friday November 8th, just two days before the FAI Cup Final. If Drogheda are in the play off, it will be played the weekend after the Cup final. A rollercoaster of emotions await Drogs fans as the season comes to a conclusion.
