The 2024 League of Ireland Premier Division has just over a month to play out and, just like everybody predicted, everything is still to play for. We have a three team race for the title, three teams looking to avoid relegation and everyone else believing they can qualify for Europe. Today, let's examine at the title race.
Where we are
| Shelbourne | 53 pts, 6 to play |
| Derry City | 50 pts, 6 to play |
| Shamrock Rovers | 49 pts, 5 to play |
Shels have been top all season after winning 6 of their opening 7 games. They followed a rocky period - 1 win in 9 - with another 6 wins in 7 games before the European season kicked in for the 3 contenders. In the 7 games played since July, Shels have one win (away to Dundalk), 4 draws and 2 defeats. In the two FAI Cup games against Premier opposition they drew at home to Galway and lost 2-0 in Derry.
Derry City have been their closest rivals all season and have even been top of the table for short periods. Their best run of form was at the end of June with four wins in a row in an unbeaten run of six. They've also reached the FAI Cup semi final with big wins over St Pats and Shels at home. Their home results - the best in the league - have kept them in contention.
Shamrock Rovers started the season without a win in four and have been counted out multiple times. They are, however, in the midst of their best run of form and now lie only four points behind the leaders. It likely would have been only 2 points without that controversial late penalty decision in favour of Derry City last week.
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The Form Guide
Points earned since July 1st
| Club | Pl | Pts | PPG |
| Shamrock Rovers | 9 | 18 | 2.00 |
| Shelbourne | 7 | 7 | 1.00 |
| Derry City | 6 | 6 | 1.00 |
So in the games played since the end of June, Shelbourne have only picked up seven points in the seven games they've played. Would it surprise you to read that Derry City have only earned 6 points in the same time period (albeit in only 6 games)? And yet, there they are, the two sides on top of the table with the tantalizing prospect of a winner takes all final game of the season in Derry.
Unless they allow the champions to sneak their fifth consecutive title out from under their collectives noses. Shamrock Rovers have been counted out multiple times this season. In the same period (from July 1st on) that Shelbourne and Derry have earned seven and six points respectively, Shamrock Rovers have earned 18. They've more wins in September (3) than Derry and Shels have combined for (2) since the end of June.
These figures can be skewered by a variety of factors (Shels and Derry have only had two home games in that period compared to Rovers' five for example) but there's no doubting which of the 3 clubs is flying. Only one club in the league (Dundalk) has earned less points since July than Shelbourne and Derry City - two if you want to rank them with points per game (add Bohs to Dundalk).
The Run In
| Shelbourne | Sligo (h), Pats (h), Rovers (a), Waterford (h), Drogs (h), Derry (a) |
| Derry City | Drogs (a), Bohs (h), Sligo (h), Dundalk (a), Pats (a), Shels (h) |
| Shamrock Rovers | Pats (h), Shels (h), Drogs (a), Dundalk (a), Waterford (h) |
Shelbourne's next three games are against the sides with the most points per game earned since July. The good news for them is that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athletic have wildly different results at home and away this year. Sligo have lost their last three away games while the Saints have only won twice away all season. Their game in Tallaght on the 6th October looms large and we could even see a Rovers win leapfrog them above Shels if other results go their way. Shels are the only one of the three to play both other contenders - and both games are away.
Derry City's next four games are all very winnable with three of them against the bottom three sides in the league and the other versus Sligo Rovers and their less than stellar away form. As we've seen the Candystripes aren't in the best of form themselves, but they can put themselves in pole position for the title with a good run of form. You'd have to imagine they'd happily accept going into the final day of the season needing a win to clinch their first league title this millennium.
Shamrock Rovers are the form team, but they'll be hoping they haven't left it too late. If either of the top two wins out, there's nothing Rovers can do but they'll know if they can win their next two games - both Dublin derbies at home - they'll go into the final international break of the season at worst, a point behind Shelbourne with 3 games to play.
A very plausible road to having 3 teams end on the same points total
- Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers, Waterford and Drogheda United. They draw with St Patrick's Athletic and lose to Shamrock Rovers
- Derry City win their next 4 games before drawing with St Pats.
- Shamrock Rovers win their next four games.
On the final day, a win for either Derry City or Shelbourne would give them the title. However a draw combined with a win for Shamrock Rovers would see all three sides end on 64 points and the league title would be decided on goal difference. At the moment that would favour Derry City (+18) over Shamrock Rovers (+13) and Shelbourne (+12) but there's plenty of scope for change there.
Whatever happens between now and November 1st, there's sure to be plenty of twists and turns as the League of Ireland shapes up for one of the most exciting finishes to the season in years.
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