If you’re reading this column, you’re familiar with the League of Ireland title race. You know that 4 points separate the top 5 clubs, and that Sligo Rovers can still win the league, despite currently sitting in the bottom half of the table.
The margins are so tight that fans of all clubs have been wondering “what if” certain things went their way this season. So, we’ll do that too. Let’s look at some of the biggest “what ifs” for each of the top five, starting with the league leaders.
Shelbourne
What if Will Jarvis and Gavin Molloy didn’t leave in the summer?
Aberdeen signed Molloy at the start of the summer and have started him every game this season, winning all 7 so far. While Shels’ fans would have loved to have kept him, he appears to be thriving at the higher level so there’s an appreciation there that the move was justified. Hull City’s recall of Will Jarvis is the bigger question. Jarvis was twice voted player of the month for the League this year and that form led to Hull recalling him in early August. After making a handful of appearances for his parent club, he has dropped from the first team and hasn’t been in a matchday squad since the end of August.
1 August 2024; Will Jarvis of Shelbourne during the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round second leg match between Shelbourne and FC Zurich at Tolka Park in Dublin. Photo by Harry Murphy/Sportsfile
Their replacements were former international Aidan O’Brien and the veteran Sam Bone. O’Brien’s career is clearly impressive, but he hasn’t really added to Shelbourne’s attacking presence while Bone is an average LOI defender. In the 10 games before Jarvis left, Shels averaged 1.25 goals per game. They have averaged 0.75 GPG since. Would Jarvis have done enough to turn any of the 3 draws in that time frame into wins? Even just another 2 points and they’d likely have been favourites
The “what if” game
In August Shelbourne hosted Derry City with Derry’s Sam Todd being sent off in the 35th minute. Shelbourne had an hour to score against the 10 men and couldn’t. The 2 points there, and the point less for Derry, could be the difference at the end of the season.
SEE ALSO: Why The All-Island Football League Concept Needs To Be Revisited
Derry City
What if Derry City could bring their FAI Cup form into the league?
Since July, Derry City have won 4 FAI Cup games without conceding a goal. They beat St Pats 3-0, Cork City 1-0 away, Shelbourne 2-0 and Bohemians 2-0 away. Since that win over St Pats, they’ve played 8 league games and won only one of them. 8 goals in 4 Cup games, 7 goals in 8 League games. One week after easily beating Bohemians in the Cup semi final in Dalymount, they struggled to a 1-1 draw at home. There are a lot of questions about how Derry City have handled this season, but most puzzling might be how they been dominant in Cup wins over Pats, Shels and Bohs yet have struggled in the league against similar opposition.
The “what if” game
We have to go all the way back to March for perhaps Derry’s biggest “what if” goal. Away to Shamrock Rovers, they had equalised with 18 minutes to go before going ahead in the 84thminute. In injury time, Markus Poom climbed high to head home an equaliser and send Derry home with only a point when they believed they had earned all 3. Instead of being level on points now, Derry would be 3 ahead of the Champions and ahead of Shelbourne on goal difference
Shamrock Rovers
What if Rovers could keep their star players fit?
In May and June this year, Rovers played 9 games and earned only 8 points. Jack Byrne only started 2 of those games. He’s only started 11 games in total this season – the same number as Neil Farrugia. Aaron McEneff was their marquee signing and he’s started only twice. The talismanic Rory Gaffney hasn’t played since April. That’s a lot of talent – and a lot of budget – that Rovers couldn’t keep on the pitch this year. At the end of June, Rovers were 15 points behind leaders Shelbourne. They’ve clawed themselves back into it (helped by results elsewhere of course), but their fans can’t help but wonder how the season might have looked if Byrne, Farrugia, McEneff and Gaffney had’ve play more games.
The “what if” game
We have to talk about the draw in Derry a month ago. Leading as the game approached injury time, a controversial penalty was awarded to Derry City as Patrick McEleney went down in the box. Everyone has had their say on it, but the consensus agrees that it shouldn’t have been a penalty. Derry converted and the Hoops left the game fuming, believing they had had 2 points “stolen” from them. Those two points would see the Champions on top of the league now.
Derry City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers
"It's an absolute disgrace" - Conan Byrne was scathing of Patrick McEleney after the Derry man won a very soft penalty
📱 #LOI reports: https://t.co/wsKSdFw5Xc pic.twitter.com/S0VDdOml94— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) September 20, 2024
St Patrick’s Athletic
What if Stephen Kenny was in charge for the entire season?
OK, this one is the biggest stretch but it’s hard not to wonder how things would have been different if Stephen Kenny was in charge all season (and crucially, the winter off-season). In the Saints recent run of six wins, there have been more starters from Kenny’s summer window this year than Daly’s two previous windows combined. The biggest difference has been the bravery shown by Kenny to re-shape the team completely and place his trust in players that Daly couldn’t. Mason Melia became a starter, rather than a fill in/sub. Romal Palmer, and subsequently Brandon Kavanagh, was given a central role. The signing of Zack Elbouzedi gave balance to the team, and Kenny’s style has developed Jake Mulraney into the best player in the league.
17 October 2024; Jake Mulraney of St Patrick's Athletic is pictured with his SSE Airtricity / SWI Player of the Month Award for September 2024 at FAI Headquarters in Abbottstown, Dublin. Photo by Seb Daly/Sportsfile
They’re clearly the form team in the league now, but it took a while for Kenny to get things going. They had two wins in his opening 10 games and before Europe had been shut out in 3 of their previous 4 games. Since then, they’ve won 9 of 10 in the league and haven’t stopped scoring. The game they didn’t win was between European legs against Sabah of Azerbaijan with Kenny not starting anybody who played on the Thursday. He wanted the game postponed. You might argue that’s another “what if” but they’re likely to run out of games for it to matter this season.
The “what if” game
Virgin Media were in Inchicore for a June bank holiday game between Stephen Kenny’s Saints play host to Jon Daly’s Dundalk side. Daly was Pats manager only four weeks before that, and had taken over a Dundalk side bottom of the table following a bit of a managerial merry-go-round after Stevie O’Donnell’s dismissal and the subsequent hiring and retirement of Noel King. Pats had picked up their first win under Kenny only days previously and most pundits expected an easy win for the home side. Within 4 minutes Pats were 2 down, 20 minutes later they were 3-0 down. By the 35th minute Pats had scored twice and the comeback was on, but Dundalk held out. It’s a game Pats should have won, and if they did, they’d be going into the final three weeks only a point off the top and flying…
Galway United
What if Galway United had Greg Cunningham and Jimmy Keohane from the start?
John Caulfield has done an unbelievable job with Galway United. The promoted side have been in the top six all season and have the best defensive record of any team. The spine of their team is packed with experience with Brendan Clarke in goal (39), Garry Buckley (31) and Conor McCormack (31) all with league winners medals in their locker. In the summer they added another former league winner, Jimmy Keohane (33) and former international Greg Cunningham (33). Since August, they’ve only lost once – and that was a controversial one at home to Shamrock Rovers. The addition of Cunningham and Keohane has added serious quality to their line up and they’re right in the mix for Europe. Would they be serious title contenders if those two had played the whole season?
30 August 2024; Greg Cunningham of Galway United during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Galway United and Derry City at Eamonn Deacy Park in Galway. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile
The “what if” game
We only have to look back at the last minute of football that Galway United have played for their biggest “what if”. United had finally been recognised by the national media as title contenders after back-to-back wins over Shelbourne and Waterford and hosted bottom side Dundalk off the back of yet another turbulent week for the Louth club. They took the lead through the impressive Patrick Hickey until the 96th minute when Eoin Kenny bundled home a cross off his head/shoulder to earn a point for Dundalk and leave the home side deflated. If they hand on for the win there, they’re only 2 points off the top.
We know each club will have plenty of what ifs, and that Sligo Rovers aren’t out of it yet either, but this is just some of the moments that fans of all clubs will think about when their team misses out. There’ll be plenty who’ll look at refereeing decisions – some right, some wrong – and others who’ll point to missed chances and fluke goals, but whoever wins this league will have had some luck along the way too. The rest will be left to rue the “what ifs”.
