In the highly unlikely event that we don't get to this point, then feel free to disregard the reams of compelling evidence presented below. But it is vital we make contingencies for every eventuality.
You see, we wouldn't wish an Irish manager to end up sounding like one of those witless, ruddy-faced Mike Basset types defiantly insisting that penalties are a lottery following a shootout loss.
Therefore, we are as well to speculate. Who should be Ireland's penalty takers on Sunday?
Listen to the discussion on the Racket below:
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Like Nate Silver, we will place our trust in numbers. According to the website Transfermarkt.ie, the hero of the hour on Wednesday night is statistically one of our best options. Robbie Brady has struck nine penalties during his professional career and missed none of them. Four of these has been scored for Norwich, two in the Premier League, one in the Europa League and the Championship.
Two of Ireland's most experienced penalty takers are unlikely to start the match. But there is a decent chance that they could be introduced with the clock winding down.
Robbie (Keane, of course) has been extraordinarily prolific from the spot over the years. He did miss one for Ireland in a European qualifier in Slovakia in 2010. Not only did he score in the shootout itself in 2002, he also nailed one in the final minute of normal time. It's looking good for a 119th minute substitution perhaps?
Jon Walters was targeted by the bantersaurus brigade after he managed to miss two penalties and score an own goal in the one game while playing for Stoke City in early 2013.
His penalty record isn't exactly flawless. Thus far, he's taken 25 penalties in total for both club and country and missed seven of them. This compares poorly with Robbie Keane's record of 52 successful conversions as against eight misses.
But in Ireland's qualifying campaign, Walters was unerring from the penalty spot in Warsaw and against Bosnia in the home playoff game. Like Robbie, we have a hunch that he'll may be on the pitch by that stage.
Shane Long and James McClean both slotted penalties in the friendly against Slovakia but, as with all these players, there are doubts about whether they'll be on the field come the shootout. Certainly, it's impossible to see Long, Walters and Robbie all being on the pitch at the end of the 120 minutes, particularly if, as is probable, Ireland are clinging on. If we were to reach the shootout through a late equaliser, then perhaps.
Either way, Long's numbers are even worse than Walters. He's taken 12 in total and missed four. Daryl Murphy has only taken five penalties in his professional career, scoring four of them.
The darling of the purists has taken plenty of penalties in his time. Wes has taken 27 penalties in English football and missed six of them. A ratio which is marginally worse than Walters but a small bit better than Long. We're talking marginal differences here, though.
McClean has an 100% record from the spot but the Slovakia penalty was the only one he's yet taken. Aiden McGeady has only tried three and missed one. Also, he gives off that brainless winger vibe that John Giles has trained us to mistrust in a player generally, and in a penalty taker in particular.
From there on, it's largely guesswork. On the basis of the air of mental strength he emits and the fact that he'll be presumably still be on the pitch, we have a feeling in our water that Seamus Coleman might stand tall in the shootout. Neither he nor Jeff Hendrick have ever taken a penalty but the latter in particular is playing so well, there is a temptation to say that he's psychologically well placed to take one.
But this is based on nothing more than the entirely unscientific predictions that people on the back of players' facial expressions when striding forward to take one. Usually, in these guesses, the opposing penalty takers look cool and calm while your guys look blithering nervous wrecks.
David O'Leary's penalty record before the shootout in Genoa read nil in all categories.
But based on the stats, our best shouts to line up in the penalty shootout
Robbie Brady
Robbie Keane
Jon Walters
Wes Hoolahan
Shane Long/Daryl Murphy
One has to assume that there won't be room for Long, Keane and Walters on the pitch by the final whistle - unless O'Neill is cavalier enough to throw on three forwards in the dying seconds. In that event, we're going to work off a hunch and suggest Hendrick or Seamus Coleman.
