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Manchester United's Permutations Ahead Of Final Europa League Tie

Manchester United's Permutations Ahead Of Final Europa League Tie
Eoin Harrington
By Eoin Harrington Updated
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Somewhat surprisingly after a turbulent first half of the season, Manchester United are in a solid place going into the final round of Europa League league phase games.

Ruben Amorim's side may be struggling domestically but they remain unbeaten in the Europa League thus far and are well placed in the race for knockout spots.

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They travel to face FCSB (formerly Steaua Bucharest) in Romania on Thursday, with the 17 other final-round games kicking off simultaneously across Europe.

United are guaranteed at least a place in the knockout playoffs but things could be even better come 10pm on Thursday for the English side.

We've broken down all the possible outcomes for Manchester United ahead of the final round of Europa League games.

READ HERE: Paul Scholes Believes That Amirom Should 'Ban Marcus Rashford From The Dressing Room'

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READ HERE: Report: Bundesliga Giants Now 'Leading The Race' To Sign Evan Ferguson

Europa League knockout permutations for Manchester United

Who Manchester United can catch in the table - and who can catch them

The new Europa League format sees the 36 teams ranked in one single league table. After Thursday's eighth and final league phase matchday, the top 24 teams will progress to the knockout stages.

The top eight teams in the table will progress directly to March's last 16. The following eight teams (9-16) will be seeded for the knockout playoffs next month, facing the teams ranked 17th-24th in two-legged ties.

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As things stand, Manchester United are in 4th and would be in line to secure an automatic slot in the last 16, avoiding two extra games in an already congested season.

The table below shows the teams that are within reach for United to catch - and the teams below them who can still mathematically finish ahead of them. The teams listed in italics are in the automatic qualification spots as things stand.

Pos. Team Points GD Final fixture
P2 Eintracht Frankfurt 16 +6 v Roma (a)
P3 Athletic Club 16 +6 v Viktoria Plzen (h)
P4 Manchester United 15 +4 v FCSB (a)
P5 Olympique Lyonnais 14 +8 v Ludogorets (h)
P6 Tottenham Hotspur 14 +5 v Elfsborg (h)
P7 Anderlecht 14 +3 v Hoffenheim (h)
P8 FCSB 14 +3 v United (h)
P9 Galatasaray 13 +4 v Ajax (a)
P10 Bodo/Glimt 13 +3 v Nice (a)
P11 Viktoria Plzen 12 +3 v Athletic Club (a)
P12 Olympiacos 12 +3 v Qarabag (h)

Once the final league table is decided, those in the playoffs will be split off into the bracket. Each team will have two potential opponents, with the draw runoff in the following system:

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  • P9/10 v P23/24
  • P11/12 v P21/22
  • P13/14 v P19/20
  • P15/16 v P17/18

Here's the gist of things for Manchester United:

  • A win away to FCSB on the final night guarantee them a top-eight finish. More than that, they would be guaranteed a top-four finish, meaning they would face the winner of one of the weaker playoff ties in the last 16
  • A draw away to FCSB on the final night would likely mean a top-eight finish, and could even still garner a top-four finish if the teams around them all slip up on the final night
  • Defeat in Bucharest would lead to an anxious wait, with United depending on results elsewhere to ensure they do not fall into the knockout round.

The permutations aren't quite as complicated as those for Celtic in the Champions League on Wednesday night but there are a few parameters at play.

Read on for a slightly more detailed breakdown of the best- and worst-case scenarios that are still in play for Manchester United on the final night of the Europa League.

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The best-case scenario for Manchester United

Manchester United will finish second in the Europa League table if they win in Bucharest on Thursday and both Frankfurt and Athletic Club fail to win against Roma and Viktoria Plzen respectively.

A draw could even be enough to finish second in the table, should both Frankfurt and Athletic Club lose and none of the teams currently ranked 5th to 10th in the table win on the final night of games.

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United would also need both Lyon and Spurs to lose in order to finish second in this scenario, as both sides would tie on points with United with a draw and have superior goal differences.

Regardless of Frankfurt or Athletic's results, United are guaranteed to finish in the top four and ensure a more favourable last 16 draw with a win in Bucharest.

 

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The worst-case scenario

Eight teams can mathematically catch Manchester United in the Europa League table - and there is a scenario in which they could finish below all eight of them.

Should FCSB claim a famous win over the English giants on Thursday, the Romanian side would finish ahead of them in the table and the best United could hope for would be a 5th-placed finish.

Should United lose to FCSB by one goal, they could drop out of the top eight and into the playoff places in any of the following scenarios:

  • Either Lyon or Spurs draw or win and any three of Anderlecht, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen or Olympiacos win
  • Both Lyon and Spurs draw or win and any two of Anderlecht, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen or Olympiacos win

Should United lose to FCSB by two or more goals, they could drop out of the top eight and into the playoff places in any of the following scenarios:

  • Any one of Lyon, Spurs or Anderlecht draw or win and any three of Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen, or Olympiacos win
  • All three of Lyon, Spurs and Anderlecht draw or win and any one of Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen, or Olympiacos win

The absolute worst-case scenario would see all of the teams down to 12th pick up the required results and Manchester United falling to 12th and the mid-range of the seeded playoff teams. That would require eight results to go against them.

 

The tiebreakers in place for the Europa League league phase

Should Manchester United finish tied on points with anyone in the final Europa League league table, this is the order in which tiebreakers will be enforced:

  1. Goal difference
  2. Goals scored
  3. Away goals scored
  4. Wins
  5. Away wins
  6. Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents
  7. Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents
  8. Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents
  9. Lower disciplinary points total
  10. UEFA club coefficient

The easiest thing for Manchester United to do is pick up three points and remove any jeopardy from the equation.

Their final test of the Europa League league phase comes on Thursday night, with kick-off against FCSB from 8pm Irish time. The game is live on TNT Sports 1 and Premier Sports 1.

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