Here's What Ireland Need To Do To Qualify For Euro 2016

Ireland kick off their Euro 2016 qualifying campaign against Georgia on Sunday and it's probably not too much of a stretch to suggest that anticipation hasn't exactly reached fever pitch. That may be because of an international football hangover from the World Cup or because we haven't really set the world alight in recent years but it really shouldn't be the case.

Technically, this should be the easiest qualification campaign we've ever faced. Given that 24 teams will qualify for the finals in France for the first time ever, Ireland could conceivably finish a distant third and still end up qualifying. So, having said that, we thought we'd take a look at the permutations to see how Ireland could end up making it to a second consecutive European Championship.

The qualifying criteria is as follows:

• There's eight groups of six teams and one group of five.
• The top two from each of these go straight through to the finals. Simple so far.
• The best third placed team also qualifies but only when the results against the sixth placed teams are discarded.
• The remaining eight third-placed teams are drawn into four two-legged play-off games with the winners qualifying.

What do we need to come 1st?

Some kind of cataclysmic event that knocks Germany off the face of the earth between now and October 2015.

That's Germany's last two qualifying campaigns from Euro 2012 and World Cup 2014. We don't want to appear foolish by positing situations that are highly unlikely to happen so let's just say we'd probably need to take four points off Jogi Loew's side and leave it at that.

What do we need to come 2nd?

Right, this is where we get serious. We've been totting up the numbers from Euro 2012 and World Cup 2014 qualifying to try and find an average of what Ireland may need this time around.

If we look at the last two qualifying campaigns the average points for second position (when the results against the sixth place teams were discarded) was 14 for both campaigns. Obviously this doesn't guarantee anything. For example, Turkey qualified with 11 points in 2012 while Norway missed out with 16. However, that was very much an unlikely scenario so the 14 point mark (20 with Gibraltar included) is a good indication.

Before we go any further, we need to take six points off Gibraltar (or the sixth place side if Gibraltar surprise everyone). The question is, where could 14 other points come from?

If we manage to take three points from Tbilisi on Sunday that would be a very nice start. Having, hopefully, turned over Gibraltar, we could head to Gelsenkirchen knowing that a defeat is likely. A draw in Glasgow would keep us on our merry way.

The next two fixtures could be key. If we could take six points from a home double against Poland and Scotland, we would be hot favourites to take second place. Again, another win over Gibraltar should be followed by three more points against Georgia, which would leave us on 19 overall and 13 when Gibraltar are taken out of the equation.

That would mean we would need one point from the final two games to reach 14. We'll give Germany another win and assume we can grab a potentially pivotal draw in Warsaw.

So after all that here's the ideal situation:

What do we need to come 3rd (and qualify)?

We went into the pot as second seeds so really this should be the minimum required from Martin O'Neill's men. However, in reality, we're quite evenly matched with Scotland and Poland so it's far from guaranteed.

To get second we've said we need four points from both of our main rivals, as well as six points from Georgia. Obviously there's a lot of permutations outside Ireland's control, but if second is outside our reach, then we're going to assume that either Scotland or Poland come up with a performance similar to what we've posited for Ireland above.

That would mean that we'd only take one point from either Poland or Scotland where above we had four. For the sake of argument, we'll go for Poland to take second, but it could just as easily be the Scots. If we are to say that we'll only take one point from Poland that would mean that six points from Georgia and four from Scotland are very much required.

If we were to draw with Georgia on Sunday then a win at home to Poland would probably be needed.

A third place finish would most likely leave us at the mercy of the play-off draw. Considering that there's no guarantee of another Estonia situation, a second place finish would be very nice indeed.

No matter how you look at it, three points from Tbilisi on Sunday could be a very important start. We can't speak for everyone, but we're excited for international football all over again.

Picture credit: David Maher / SPORTSFILE

Tables via uefa.com