What Are The Most Fun Outcomes For The End Of The LOI Season?

Last week we went through some stats on the League Of Ireland’s top three teams as we approached the end of the season. All three sides have lost since.

Galway United have now firmly entered the discussion. We even have people talking about St Patrick’s Athletic making a run at the title. We have nobody talking about Sligo Rovers doing likewise and they’re on the same points as St Pats. With only 4 games left for 5 of the clubs (Derry City have a game in hand), we still have 6 clubs who can lift the trophy as league winners.

It's that time again so. Let’s look at each of the club’s run-ins and assess the likelihood of them winning it all, and more importantly, discussing how funny each of the possible final tables could be.

Shelbourne (54 pts, +11 GD)

Shels, despite their recent struggles, should still be favourites for the league because of their 4 point buffer. They could lose to Shamrock Rovers this Sunday and lose to Derry City on the final day and still win the title.

Their other two opponents are home to Waterford (four defeats in last five games) and Drogheda (eyes on a potential play off and/or Cup final). Shels have yet to lose to any of their four opponents in the league this season.

5 August 2024; Shelbourne manager Damien Duff during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Shelbourne and Derry City at Tolka Park in Dublin. Photo by Tyler Miller/Sportsfile

The funniest result would be Shels losing out on a top 3 finish completely. Leading the league all season, if they don’t pick up any wins, they’re in real danger of missing out on Europe completely, particularly if Derry City don’t win the Cup.

Even a top 3 finish would feel like a let-down for the club after leading for so long.

Derry City (50 pts, +17 GD, game in hand)

After Shels’ loss to St Patrick’s Athletic on Monday, Derry City became the bookmakers’ favourite to win the league. The team with one league win, and no home league wins, since June are the favourites to win it all, despite their four point deficit.

The importance of the next two weeks for Derry cannot be underestimated – not just for them, but for all the top 6 teams.  They play Bohemians (away) in Friday’s FAI Cup semi-final and next weekend they have back-to-back home games on Friday and Monday against Bohemians and Sligo Rovers. If they win those three, they could be top of the table and in the cup final and dreaming of a double. If they lose all three, oh boy…

5 April 2024; Will Patching of Derry City celebrates with teammates after scoring their side's second goal during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Derry City and Dundalk at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry. Photo by Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile

The funniest outcome for Derry City is getting themselves in a position where a win at home to Shelbourne on the final day wins them the title, and they don’t.

As with Shels and Rovers, they could finish any position between top and fourth and it won’t really be too much of a surprise.

Shamrock Rovers (49 pts, +10 GD)

Sunday’s game in Tallaght against Shels has the feel of a title decider about it, and that’s with Derry City being favourites! A win for Rovers puts them 2 behind the leaders but they have arguably the easiest run in.

The Champs will certainly be hot favourites to beat Drogheda (a), Dundalk (a) and Waterford (h). The Shels and Dundalk games come only 3 days after Conference league ties but luckily for Rovers no travel is involved (the second game is in Windsor Park).

19 July 2024; Players tussle during the Sports Direct Men’s FAI Cup second round match between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers at Dalymount Park in Dublin. Photo by Seb Daly/Sportsfile

As for funniest outcome, pretty much anything other than a fifth title in a row will be warmly welcomed by most opposition fans but there’s perverse comedy in them being counted out all season and still ending up as champions.

Rovers pumping up their European co-efficient with wins in the league phase and not being able to use it next year is probably the funniest possible end to their season though, on balance.

Galway United (49 pts, +5 GD)

Galway United were so under the radar that we didn’t include them last week (we didn’t expect all of the top 3 to lose over the weekend in our, rubbish, defence) but it was compounded by RTE TV’s graphic at the end of the pulsating win for Pats over Shels not including them either, despite them being level on points with Rovers.

Galway have the chance to strike first when they host Dundalk on this Friday with the other contenders off this weekend, or on Cup duty. A win there will see them in second, even if it may only last 48 hours.

John Caulfield knows what is needed to win a title and he’s added experience in the summer. They don’t score a lot of goals, but they are battled hardened and that might be their edge.

29 March 2024; Galway United captain Conor McCormack celebrates with the Galway United supporters after their side's victory in he SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Derry City and Galway United at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Derry. Photo by Ben McShane/Sportsfile

Their last 3 games are Pats (a), Sligo (h) and they end the season away to Bohemians.  A Bohemians team that may have a cup final to look forward to the following week. Galway will likely be favourite in 3 of those games.

Galway winning the title is an extremely funny outcome for the season. Tipped by some, including this column, to be relegated, their season is already a huge success and they have laid the groundwork for future seasons too.

They are the club with the highest variance in likely finishing positions with 1^st possible, a European spot more likely and they’re only losses to inform Pats and Sligo away from finishing in 6^th.

St Patrick’s Athletic (47 pts, +8 GD)

There’s no question they’re the form team in the league. 5 wins in a row and averaging 3 goals a game in September, Stephen Kenny has certainly turned things around for the Saints but it’s likely they’ll run out of time.

3 of their final four games are against other top 6 sides after they play Bohs in Dalymount on Monday the 14^th. They’d need to win all 4 games to have any chance of the league title and we don’t know how likely a run of 9 wins in a row is in this league.

17 May 2024; St Patrick's Athletic manager Stephen Kenny during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between St Patrick's Athletic and Derry City at Richmond Park in Dublin. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile

Pats winning a title when they were being talked about as relegation contenders last month and had bookmakers’ odds of 1000/1 only last week is objectively a very funny end to the season. Given the resources likely being made available for Kenny to make a challenge for next year though, there are some who won’t find it as funny.

Perhaps the funniest outcome would be Pats winning nine in a row to end the season and still miss out on European football with Derry, Rovers and Shels doing enough to stay ahead and one of Bohs, Drogheda United and Wexford winning the cup.

Sligo Rovers (47 pts, -7 GD)

If Galway have gone under the radar, the Bit o’ Red are on a different system altogether. They have lost 2 of their last 5 games by 7-0 and 4-0 scorelines but they’re still in with a shot at the title.

They end the season with Derry (a), Bohemians (h), Galway (a) and Pats (h) on the final day. Like Pats, they’ll need to win all 4 to have any shot at the title, but you suspect they’d happily settle for European qualification and that’s very much in their hands.

29 March 2024; Ellis Chapman of Sligo Rovers celebrates scoring his side's first goal during the SSE Airtricity Men's Premier Division match between Waterford and Sligo Rovers at the Regional Sports Centre in Waterford. Photo by Michael P Ryan/Sportsfile

Without question, the funniest outcome of all is Sligo Rovers winning the league title with a negative goal difference. Currently -7, they’d move to -3 with four one goal wins.

They’d still need help but the following results would see Sligo Rovers as champions:

These set of plausible, somewhat plausible, results would see the following end table.

4 points cover the top 6 clubs with the league winners having a minus goal difference. A win for Shels or Derry in the last game would have clinched the title for them, but a draw left it open for Pats and Sligo, with Sligo winning at home to go from 4th at the start of the day to league winners. Pats win 8 in a row, and a ninth would have won the title for them but they finish outside the European places.

Who says no to this? Except for fans of Shels, Derry, Rovers, Pats and Galway?