There's no way of sugarcoating it: Tuesday's EURO 2025 qualifying draw was about as tough as it was ever going to get for Ireland.
Promotion to Nations League A off the back of a mightily impressive League B campaign late last year meant that Ireland would be mixing it with Europe's elite for these EURO qualifiers.
Even so, a draw including the defending European champions (England), the side ranked third in the world (France), and the side who finished third in last year's World Cup (Sweden) is a draw which has left many Irish fans grimacing.
Speaking to Balls.ie and the Irish media on Tuesday afternoon, head coach Eileen Gleeson summed it up best.
There’s no getting away from it. It is probably the hardest group any Irish team has ever been placed into in a draw. That’s definitely the general feeling around the auditorium, I’ve had plenty of looks from other coaches with relief on their faces!
I’ve just spoken with the English coach as well, everybody is of the same opinion. It’s a tough group, and we’ve got all teams in the top five of the rankings…but what more could you ask for?
As Gleeson said, Ireland (24th) will come against the sides ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th in the FIFA World Rankings. Statistically, it might be the most stacked qualifying group ever thrown up in either men's or women's football.
That being said, there is still every reason to believe that not only can Ireland qualify for EURO 2025 - but that they will.
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Why Ireland are still well placed to reach EURO 2025
12 April 2022; Katie McCabe of Republic of Ireland celebrates with teammate Denise O'Sullivan, left, after scoring their side's first goal during the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 qualifying match between Sweden and Republic of Ireland at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg, Sweden. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile
The new format adopted by UEFA for EURO 2025 qualifying is what has placed Ireland in such a daunting group - but it also allows a second chance for teams to qualify.
Nations League and qualifying campaigns now essentially mirror one another, with a country's placing in the Nations League defining which qualifying path they are entered into. Ireland's six wins from six in Nations League B last winter saw them promoted and, as fourth seeds for Tuesday's draw, a tough group was always likely.
Their placement in Nations League A, however, also means that they are guaranteed at least a play-off to reach the EUROs.
If Ireland finish in the top two of their group (which is a tall order but not out of the question), they will qualify automatically for next summer's finals in Switzerland. If they finish third in their group, they will progress to a play-off for tournament qualification and remain in the top tier for the 2025-26 Nations League. If they finish bottom, they are still guaranteed a play-off, but will also be relegated back down to League B for the 2025-26 campaign.
The play-off system is where things get a bit complicated so let's break it down.
In round one of the playoffs:
- The 3rd and 4th placed teams from League A groups will face the five group winners and three best runners-up from League C groups
- The group winners, runners-up, and 3rd placed teams from League B groups will play in six play-off ties
- If Switzerland are among that group of League B teams, their place in the play-offs will be taken by the best fourth-placed team (as tournament hosts, Switzerland are guaranteed qualification)
The first round will produce 14 teams for the final round of qualifying. The second round of playoffs will run off as follows:
- The winners from the play-offs featuring the seven highest-ranked League A teams will be seeded and drawn against the remaining seven teams
At all stages of the playoffs, ties take place over two legs and the seeded team gets home advantage in the second leg.
With Ireland guaranteed at least a first-round play-off spot, where they would face significantly weaker opposition, chances are high that they can reasonably expect to have a two-legged tie in November/December to reach EURO 2025. For context, these are the calibre of sides that Ireland would be expected to face in the first round of playoffs.
League C ✅
Predict the group winners... 🔮#WEURO2025 pic.twitter.com/c3ADYKraAG— UEFA Women's EURO (@WEURO) March 5, 2024
The strongest side among that group going by the FIFA World Rankings are Slovenia in 44th. Ireland sit comfortably in 24th and will come into the playoffs after a campaign adjusting to playing significantly better opposition. Their chances of getting to a final two-legged showdown for a EURO 2025 place are extremely strong.
Nonetheless, Eileen Gleeson was keen to stress on Tuesday that the team will be taking nothing for granted when it comes to a playoff place:
In terms of the play-off, there is nothing guaranteed there, so it’s not like we’ll have a cavileer approach to this group stage and then we have the play-off in our back pocket.
It’s football, it’s not to underestimate any other team in any other league, there is excellent quality in League B, which would be the second round of the play-offs.
For the moment we have an opportunity to qualify out of the group, potentially, within the top-two, and that’s what we’ll be trying to do in this phase.
11 October 2022; Amber Barrett of Republic of Ireland, bottom, celebrates with her teammates after scoring their side's first goal during the FIFA Women's World Cup 2023 Play-off match between Scotland and Republic of Ireland at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland. Photo by Mick O'Shea/Sportsfile
Looking away from the playoffs and simply assessing the qualifying campaign ahead is also an enlightening process. This is a uniquely difficult group, of course, but there is still reason for optimism despite the tricky months ahead.
Firstly, at least one of Ireland's EURO 2025 qualifying games will take place at the Aviva Stadium. Fans will naturally be dreaming of taking on England in the national stadium but even a tie against France or Sweden taking place there will naturally help to elevate the level of this Irish team.
Another factor is the encouraging performances Ireland put in against Sweden in 2023 World Cup qualifying. A draw in Gothenburg and a tight 1-0 defeat in Tallaght were a fair reflection of how closely Ireland matched their opponents - and they have developed significantly as a team since the most recent of those meetings, nearly two years ago.
That is perhaps the biggest factor in Ireland's favour. They have made huge strides in their progression as a side, and now have meaningful experience against top class opposition under their belts.
Since their last qualifying campaign, they have played the USA (twice), France, and Italy in friendly games to go alongside their monumental maiden World Cup voyage.
Though they were eliminated in the first round of the World Cup, their performances were a hugely encouraging sign that this team is building towards competing at the highest level.
Moreover, in that group stage, Ireland were given a similarly tricky task - hosts Australia, Olympic champions Canada, and African giants Nigeria. Competitive in all three games, this Ireland side showed that they will not be daunted by the size of the task in front of them.
It may be a lot to ask this Ireland team to qualify automatically for EURO 2025 - but they have multiple methods of reaching those finals:
- A top-two finish in the group sees them qualify automatically
- A third- or fourth-placed finish sees them guaranteed a play-off first-round spot against a significantly weaker side
- A third-placed finish in the group will guarantee them home advantage in the second-leg of their prospective second-round play-off game
We have every reason to hope that we will be cheering on the Girls in Green in Switzerland next summer.
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