Ireland's chances of qualifying for EURO 2024 automatically died a long time ago, and this Saturday's game against the Netherlands in Amsterdam will sadly be for nothing but pride.
A 3-0 victory over Gibraltar in June and a 4-0 win in the return fixture remain the sole triumph thus far in the group, as Ireland enter the final international window of the year incapable of finishing any higher than fourth in the group.
Nobody would have reasonably expected Ireland to get results against France or the Netherlands, but the two dire defeats to Greece stick out as low points of Stephen Kenny's reign in charge.
It seems as though Kenny will be off after Tuesday's friendly against New Zealand, with Lee Carsley and Neil Lennon touted as potential successors.
Ireland will not qualify automatically for EURO 2024 - but there is still the slimmest glimmer of hope that the team could still reach the finals in Germany next summer, through the Nations League play-off route.
This article explains the exact manner in which those play-offs will work - and how Ireland's chances are looking.
READ HERE: Eamon Dunphy Hammers Media For 'Vicious' Criticism Of Stephen Kenny
Ireland EURO 2024: The potential play-off route to Germany
How it stands currently
Taking into account the teams that are currently qualifying automatically through the groups, and applying the play-off criteria, the three Nations League play-off routes as it stands would be:
- League A: Croatia, Italy, Poland, Estonia
- League B: Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Iceland
- League C: Georgia, Greece, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg
So, as it stands, Ireland would not qualify automatically for EURO 2024, nor would they seal a place in the play-offs.
Below are the final standings of all four leagues of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League.
The final standings of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League ("W" denotes a team which won their group, and are guaranteed of a play-off place if they do not qualify automatically)
What Ireland need to happen to reach the EURO 2024 play-offs
19 June 2023; Mikey Johnston of Republic of Ireland celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the UEFA EURO 2024 Championship qualifying group B match between Republic of Ireland and Gibraltar at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Photo by Seb Daly/Sportsfile
Essentially, Ireland need as many teams as possible who are currently ahead of them in the Nations League rankings to qualify automatically for EURO 2024 in Germany through the qualifying groups. As it stands, only 17 teams ahead of them are qualifying automatically, leaving Ireland outside of the play-off spots.
- If Ireland want to enter the Nations League B play-off route, they need six teams teams ahead of them in Nations League B to qualify automatically. Of the nine teams ahead of them in League B, Serbia, Scotland, Ukraine, and Slovenia are currently qualifying automatically.
- The next chance for Ireland would come in the Nations League A play-off route. If each team in League A qualifies automatically, there will be four additional play-off spots up for grabs. One of these would go to the highest-ranked team in League D (Estonia), with the other three going to the three highest-ranked sides in League B not already (a) qualified automatically, or (b) already in the League B play-offs. Currently, Ireland would fall into this category and secure a play-off place - if every team in League A were to qualify automatically.
- In simple terms: Ireland need the vast majority of the teams ahead of them to qualify automatically for the tournament, and for as few upsets as possible to occur in the qualifying groups. If at least 19 teams ahead of Ireland in the Nations League standings qualify automatically, they are assured of a play-off place.
We Global Football have calculated the probability of each team in Europe qualifying for EURO 2024. Ireland's chances of reaching the play-offs have been destroyed since the June international window, with a disastrous qualifying group compounding things further.
After the June qualifiers, Ireland's chances of reaching a play-off stood at 20.22% - now they stand at 0.00%.
NEW: EURO 2024 Qualifying Update (15 November)
Romania 🇷🇴 probability going up. Norway 🇳🇴 chances to reach the playoffs going down. pic.twitter.com/jSO2o6KJTk— We Global Football (@We_Global) November 15, 2023
The same account has consistently predicted that the cutoff line for Group B playoffs will fall right before Ireland.
Here is the overall Nations League Table with our updated projections. The teams in green are the teams we project to be in the EURO 2024 playoffs.
We project Slovenia 🇸🇮 as the last team in and Ireland 🇮🇪 as the last team out. Bosnia 🇧🇦 is really the team to watch today. pic.twitter.com/hi71603Lw0— We Global Football (@We_Global) September 11, 2023
READ HERE: 'Bitter' O'Neill Says Stephen Kenny Was Appointed By Irish Media
The teams Ireland need to pick up the pace
The teams ahead of Ireland who are currently not qualifying automatically are Croatia, Italy, Poland, Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Ukraine, Iceland, and Norway.
The teams Ireland realistically need results from are Iceland and Israel. The most achievable scenario which currently sees Ireland secure a play-off spot for EURO 2024 currently depends on these two teams.
If all other groups remain the same, and Israel and Iceland can qualify automatically, Ireland will secure a play-off place through route B for EURO 2024.
Israel are currently behind Romania in their qualifying group, while Iceland are stuck - both of which are bad scenarios for Ireland.
In qualifying group I, Israel finishing ahead of Romania is what Ireland need to happen. They currently sit four points behind the Romanians, with two games each left - including a decisive clash between the two teams in Felcsut on Saturday night (due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, they are forced to play their home games at a neutral venue.
Israel's final game is against group wooden spoon winners Andorra, while Romania travel to face group leaders Switzerland.
- Israel's remaining fixtures (away in italics): Romania (18/11), Andorra (21/11)
- Romania's remaining fixtures (away in italics): Israel (18/11), Switzerland (21/11)
It's not out of the question that results could go Ireland's way in Israel's group, but Iceland finishing second in their group seems wholly more unlikely.
Iceland currently sit in fourth place on ten points, six points behind second-placed Slovakia, who they still have to face away from home in a must-win game. Iceland also have to travel to Portugal on the final day of the group, meaning a minor miracle is needed. Luxembourg in third are also a player here - either Slovakia or Luxembourg finishing ahead of Iceland is bad news for Ireland.
- Iceland's remaining fixtures (away in italics): Slovakia (16/11), Portugal (19/11)
- Slovakia's remaining fixtures (away in italics): Iceland (16/11), Bosnia and Herzegovina (19/11)
- Luxembourg's remaining fixtures (away in italics): Bosnia and Herzegovina (16/11), Liechtenstein (19/11)
So, to summarise everything in the easiest possible route to EURO 2024 play-offs for Ireland:
- Ireland need all groups ahead of them bar Iceland's and Israel's to stay as they are
- Ireland need Israel to beat both Romania and Andorra, and Romania fail to beat Switzerland
- They need Iceland to win both of their last two games away to Slovakia and Portugal
- Slovakia must also lose their last game against Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Luxembourg must fail to win at least one of their final two group games
These statistics are correct as of the end of the October 2023 qualifying window
It is sadly all but confirmed that Ireland will not be going to Germany next summer, and we will need to hold out hope for another Icelandic miracle.
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