Irish fans may find themselves caught in a quandary tonight. On one hand, we are duty bound to wish for the result which best improves Ireland's chances of qualifying from the group as one of the four best third-placed sides, but on the other hand, we have an entrenched disposition towards wishing great sadness and mediocrity upon England.
In the interests of clarity, the Euro 2016 permutations dictate that four of the best third-placed teams will advance to the last 16. This means that Ireland need to beat Italy to secure third, and hope that at least two of the other third-placed sides can collect no more than three points. This happily came through last night, as Albania beating Romania means that they will definitely rank below us, should we do what we have to do against Italy.
Here are the rankings as they stand:
If Ireland are to appear in the top four of that table, we need to beat Italy and get to four points.
Following Albania's night of glory, attention now switches to Group B, as it climaxes with clashes between Wales and Russia and England versus Slovakia.
The Slovaks are currently third in Group B, meaning that, ideally, we need to hope that they pick up as few points as possible. This, eagle-eyed fans of mathematics will point out, would ideally be zero, meaning that the ideal result from the Slovakia/England game is - against our better nature - an England win.
A draw for Slovakia would not be great, it would put them on four points with a goal difference we are unlikely to overhaul, and would be guaranteed third if Wales avoid defeat against Russia. A Slovak win would also be bad for us in the event Wales avoid defeat against Russia.
In the Welsh/Russia game, we should be hoping for a draw or a Welsh victory.
From a pragmatic point of view, wins for England and Wales would be ideal.
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